Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:35:50

Constituency Profile


Cairns, Mark

Harris, Michael

Pendergast, Leeanna

Rose, Robert

Leeanna Pendergast


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 10 05 Todd Caslick
    This is a toss-up riding for sure. Pendergast is a good MPP, but Michael Harris would likely do just as well. Mark Cairns is young and hasn't been as visible as Harris or Pendergast. If there is an orange wave like 1990 or the 2011 federal election, Cairns could win. My thoughts are that it will be Pendergast who will win with the backing of incumbency.
    11 09 28 R.O.
    The forum poll has the conservatives picking up Kitchener Conestoga but only by a small margin , regardlessly of size of lead i would say its more likely this riding goes conservative than stays liberal this year. as Southwestern Ontario is one of the areas where Ontario pc's have made the most gains this year along with eastern Ontario, definity some new seats in these regions . and if Ontario is headed for a minority its unlikely the liberals hold marginal ridings they won by small amounts in 07.
    11 09 24 A.S.
    Given Leeeeeannnnna's margin, definitely one of the ‘ones that got away’ under John Tory--then again, the PC figure might have been quasi-artificially bumped up by the seat's ‘notionally PC in '03’ status, since the Kitchener parts in and of themselves aren't *that* naturally conservative. Thus, even if (not)Mike Harris wins the rematch, it might not be the landslide margin expected--come to think of it, he could win with a smaller share than that he lost with in '07.
    11 09 24 Forestman
    I wonder if the Conservative candidate had another name like Stan or Bob or George like other members of his family we might actually focus on him and his fitness for office and party platform. This Mike Harris is not that Mike Harris. Give it a rest.
    11 09 12 NGU
    While the conservatives were popular here federally, that was with an already well established incumbent. The local radio station for the Kitchener area said that according to them NDP candidate Mark Cairns would be able to pick it up. In addition the PCs are running a candidate who's name is Micheal Harris, this counted against them last time and it will count against them this time. I wouldn't count this in the Tory column yet. From everyone I've spoken to in the riding it looks to be a pretty solid 3 way race.
    11 03 28 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    It should be noted that while this riding ‘looks’ rural on a map, the reality is that most voters live in the city of Kitchener. Incumbency effects not only the person but the ‘incumbent party’ though to a lesser amount. I think having a ‘Mike Harris’ on the ballot may have won the Liberals a point or two. With Hudak polling in majority territory, this is indeed a logical PC gain.
    11 03 25 OgtheDim
    The Liberals won in 2004 federally because the Tory running was seen to be a dinosaur. This riding only went Liberal provincially because of the schools question. It will be Tory after this election.
    11 03 11
    I disagree with marking this down in the PC column so soon when you have a Liberal incumbent running. Incumbency helps a lot. This riding did go Liberal federally in the 2004 federal election and I think we should wait until closer to Election Day to mark down a defeat for an incumbent Liberal MPP.
    11 03 08 Smarto
    Sorry Leeanna - You only won last time because of the Schools issue - this one is an almost certain pickup for the Tories

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