Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Kenora-Rainy River

Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:23:00

Constituency Profile


Campbell, Sarah

Holiday, JoJo

Leek, Anthony

McKay, Rod

Romaniuk, Charmaine

Howard Hampton


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 10 05 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    The last minute Angus-Reid poll has NDP support in the north at 78% while the PC have only 8% (they got 32% in the last election). If you believe this poll then the PC will be shut out of the north and the NDP will keep this riding easily.
    11 10 01 Greg
    The NDP candidate is certainly no Howard Hampton, but also recall that the provincial Kenora-Rainy River riding is not the same as the federal Kenora riding. Rainy River district/the Fort Frances area have a longstanding left-of-centre labour tradition that combine with Hampton's endorsement of Campbell and the lingering goodwill towards him personally throughout much of the riding.
    The PC's have a competant and strong candidate in McKay, but it won't be enough to flip this riding in their favour given historical voting patterns. The Liberals could have increased their level of support in the riding given Hampton's retirement, but instead their nomination of an underqualified candidate along with the sentiment that McGuinty bear some responsibility for the forestry industry closures will see their vote share be marginally lower.
    Prediction: NDP--46%, PCs--28%, Liberals 23%, Greens 3%
    11 09 28 seasaw
    Remember when NDP, or any party leader retires, the seat usually goes to a member of a different party, remember Lib Bob Callaghan replaced Bill Davis, Frank Miller was replaced by Lib Ken Black, Bob Rae by Gerard Kennedy and so on. The Liberals are in trouble in the North and are not very popular, the NDP candidate is no Howard, all these factors, should be enough for a PC victory.
    11 09 24 A.S.
    It'd be odd, indeed, to see the strongest (if by default) provincial NDP seat in recent times fall against the grain of significant provincewide party gains, even if the candidate choice has an ominous whiff of ‘Derek Nighbor’ (cf. Sean Conway's wouldbe successor in '03). On the other hand, there's a certain highly-qualified nature to federal Conservative success hereabouts--had they not fluked into second ahead of the NDP in '06, the picture might be different here--and keep in mind, too, that when it comes to political geography, Kenora has more of a broad spiritual bond to Harper's West than, uh, Hudak's Niagara. The only guarantee: it'll be a tighter race here than in *both* the last provincial election *and* the last federal election.
    11 09 19 John
    I think Rod McKay will win. He has the endorsement of all the community Mayors. He is well versed on the forestry file which is important in this riding.
    11 09 18 Jon
    The federal Conservative organization is clearly behind Rod McKay.
    Signs everywhere for PC, hardly any NDP and no liberals.
    NDP are mad at each other from the nomination and without Howard
    they are lost.
    The Liberals had a good chance here but nominated before they knew
    Howard was not running and did not get their best candidate.
    No one ever thought this riding would go Conservative federally
    and I think there will be another surprise October 6.
    11 09 14 Scott
    Liberal Party candidate for this riding is Anthony Leek out of Emo.
    This riding is really a toss-up. With no incumbent and a young/inexperienced replacement NDP candidate I think that this riding will be heavily influenced by the provincial campaign.
    11 09 13 binriso
    Even if Hampton has retired it is still a near 100 percent chance that this is NDP.
    11 09 10 matvail2002
    With Hampton gone this is too close to call.
    However one important thing is the fact that the Tories are having a sizeable party machine in the Kenora part of the riding.
    11 09 08 JB
    I must agree with R.O. With Howie out of the equation, NDP support is definitely going to plummet here, and the Fort Frances area will definitely play a key role in this riding.
    However, I can’t help but think that Hampton is going to assist the NDP candidate here as much as possible. His wife Shelley Martel did the same thing in Nickel Belt back in ‘07 to ensure an NDP hold.
    It won’t be a landslide, but I’m expecting the NDP to retain this seat at a much lesser margin.
    11 08 23 R.O.
    This riding is somewhat of a wildcard now that Howard Hampton not running , its tough to get a feel for what the final result might be here. the 2 main candidates are both brand new and just nominated this week , Rod Mckay is Ontario pc candidate and Sarah Campbell ndp candidate . Anthony Leek was also recently nominated for the liberals. the federal riding of Kenora is now conservative although it does not include Fort Frances area which is heavily ndp. there is also the uncertain First nations votes , alot live in the riding but will they come out in large numbers to vote in a provincial election ? the ndp vote will definitely go down here but will it go down enough to give the other candidates a chance is tough to say at this time
    11 08 13 Canadian Election Atlas
    I suggest that this be taken out of the NDP column for the time being. While it is likely that the NDP may win this, coming off of Howard Hampton, it is possible that the Tories may pick this up, now that Hampton is not running for re-election. Much of this seat is in the federal riding of Kenora which is currently a Conservative seat.
    11 08 04 John
    Now that Howard is not running the Conservatives will win this. They have a strong candidate federally and the wave will spread provincially.
    11 04 30 John
    Tim Hudak would have to run an exceptional campaign for this seat to come into play. I regret to say that NDP will win this one!
    11 02 18 binriso
    If Howard Hampton is still running here the NDP have it for sure, it isn’t even close here.

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