Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-10-07 10:36:21

Constituency Profile


Main, Patrick

Mitchell, Carol

Robertson, Grant

Schnurr, Christine

Thompson, Lisa

Valenta, Dennis

Hon Carol Mitchell


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 10 05 Beancounter
    Change may not be coming fully accross the province, but it is coming in Huron-Bruce. The Liberals are vunerable in this riding due to the Walkerton jail issue and green energy act. I really have no opinion on the wind energy issue. However, my question is what is the rush ? These are large industrial installations that will last generations. It may be a good idea to take time and get it right. The Liberals are certain that offshore wind turbines should not be allowed, but the turbines can be located on farmland and have no negative affects.
    I have also had personal contact with the constituency office in Clinton over the last year. I visited on 3 different occasions, and left my contact information. I certainly never expected to hear from the MPP, however, I never received a return phone call from staff or any useful information while in the office. The MPP certainly cannot be expected to review all correspondence and be aware of enquires handled by the office. Having said that, the buck stops at the top and they are responsible for having capable staff and systems in place to ensure constituents receive the assistance they seek.
    11 10 02 farmer fred
    With the Free Press headline of the Conservatives and NDP being in a virtual tie in Southwestern Ontario I am going to go out on a limb and say that the riding will choose the better known, well-liked and front bench calibre candidate and elect Grant Robertson on Oct 6th. I expect though it will be within 1-2 per cent from first to third so it may come down to party machinery. In some ways this is as much about what I hope to see happen as expect to see, although they combine now. With Lisa Thompson running the most mean-spirited, lowest class campaign ever in riding history, I hope that we don’t see her win. I would hate to think that it might result in even dirtier, classless campaigns to come.
    Robertson is clearly the class of the field. He has also stuck with it and has shown he is involved for the right reasons. People have gotten to know him and they like what they see, reducing that NDP resistance in the riding. I would not have thought it possible at the beginning of the campaign, but I think we might see Grant go over the top this time, although narrowly. And even though I am not normally an NDP voter that would be a very good thing for this riding.
    11 09 29 farmer fred
    I spoke up when Carol was untruthfully attacked and I will do it again for Grant Robertson. Any attempt to suggest Robertson is anti-nuclear is ridiculous for anyone who knows anything about this riding. Many of his core supporters are nuclear workers for heavens sake! I'm also not sure you could even call him a social democrat. He is hardly an ideologue, which is why he is breaking the normal ceilings for the NDP. He is much more a populist along the lines of Paul Steckle or Bill Murdoch, although from an NDP starting point.
    Did a coffee shop 'focus group' with the other old farts that hang out in our local diner. In other words there was a bunch of us old guys and gals sitting around shooting the breeze. People were outraged about a letter in the local paper by someone who attacked Grant's integrity and honesty and was factually wrong in doing so. A Liberal friend says the letter was written by a Conservative campaign worker he met at an all-candidates meeting. Even the old Tories in the group could not believe that Lisa Thompson would stoop so low as to personally attack someone like that. I don't know if it will sway their vote, but the Conservative campaign is sure leaving a sour taste in peoples mouths. Combining the letter attacking Grant personally, and the ads attacking Carol personally has really turned people off the Conservative campaign with people like me who should be their vote universe if they want to win.
    In the end the provincial numbers in southwestern Ontario will likely determine the race here, but any suggestion this is a lock for anyone is foolish. Carol seems to have new winds in her sails thanks entirely to the Conservatives so completely and ham-fistedly overplaying their hand. She looked so down and defeated at the beginning, but now looks relaxed and confident. Thompson is turning people off and their campaign seems to be becoming increasingly desperate. Robertson seems to have growing support outside the normal NDP range and voters. I was surprised to hear in the coffee shop that long time Liberals had already went out and voted for him at the advance poll.
    It is the Conservatives to lose and I am starting to feel like they are doing just that.
    11 09 28 Double J
    I agree with the other posters who say that Tory candidate Lisa Thompson is a joke but that doesn't matter in Huron Bruce. The only reason Carol Mitchell hung on in this riding last time was that the Tory vote stayed home because of the private school issue. This time the Tory vote is very motivated and they don't care that Thompson lack any ability. Huron Bruce will be a Tory victory on October 6.
    11 09 27 A.S.
    The Grant Robertson cult hits EPP for another go-around--though if he's polling 25% support *provincially* versus a Liberal incumbent in a seat that'd ‘normally’ otherwise go Tory, that means something's sticking. (Well, I'm one who always ‘allowed for’ it--though with deep qualifications on account of proper provincewide trends being required to ‘make something happen’. So...maybe at last. The first three-way marginal race here since 1990.)
    11 09 27 jeff316
    Well, when you call it too early sometimes it bites you in the rear. I have to say Carol Mitchell is rising to the challenge and might actually save her own skin. Mitchell has found a raison d’etre, which is interesting because usually it doesn’t take most politicians three general elections to learn speaking and campaigning skills, let alone to find a sense of purpose. The posters below are right in the sense that the anti-wind campaign is so over the top and direct in their tactics that a few folks that I know that were sympathetic to their cause are starting to have trouble relating to an increasingly extreme group. Hearing Lisa, truth be told I haven’t found her as bad as some have made her out to be, but that being said she’s definitely the least capable of the three contenders, and that the Conservatives could not find a better candidate in what should be a naturally Conservative riding is puzzling. Robertson is very solid, but the NDP ceiling here is very very low - even with the complete collapse of the Liberal vote in the previous federal election, arguably the classiest, most politically-skilled and well-known candidate in the race still only managed 25 percent. An anti-nuclear social democrat being elected in a conservative rural farming riding with a strong history of nuclear employment? Not a chance.
    11 09 27 Gone Fishing
    With Farmer Fred's challenge to keep the partisan loyalties out of this one, it is difficult for me to avoid the appearance of doing so. Yes, I am a conservative supporter, but, I did call for Mitchell to be a likely hold here back in May.
    What's changed? Well I too spend a fair bit of time driving through and working in this riding. I also grew up in the north end of the riding where I still have a lot of family and friends whom I talk to regularly.
    There are two things I hear consistently lately,
    These rural ridings are made of up are largely made up of three kinds of people; farmers as part of a larger cohort of small business people, seniors and blue collar families often with only one job or two lower paying jobs. With the exception of a few hydro workers this riding is as rural as you can get.
    The older people that I know were Liberal in a time where you needed only one qualification to be supported - you had to be a Liberal. They were the Murray Gaunt and Eddie Sargetn type of supporters. The PCs could have rund God Almighty and finished second against them in their heyday. Fred's lament about party politics works against the Liberals here. Whipping the party federally and you see how fast the Liberals were disposed of once Paul Steckle left. Mitchell is no Steckle in that regard and there are a lot of older liberal supporters who still believe their party is the best representative of the common man but they also can't understand why ‘kids’ like me don't see the Liberals that way. As they get along, fewer of them are die hard as well, they are willing to have a look around IF they think they have a true alternative.
    The farmers are becoming more business than way of life with every generation. They are coming of age with other small business owners whom generally have more sway toward conservatives.
    The families like the seniors are seeing pocketbook issues like HST on hydro as crippling them.
    All these groups are more or less anti city and the Liberals if anything are viewed as city friendly with a tin ear to the rural areas.
    The only thing I see that is playing in favour of the liberals here is that for some reason though there are a lot of issues that hit home, few people are even talking about this election.
    Maybe that voter fatigue is finally coming home to roost. I am just saying that there are no fundamental reasons to support a Mitchell win other than incumbency which makes this too close to call but I am leaning that things will change in the last week. No one really called for a conservative majority federally until the morning after the election.
    This is the type of the riding team blue needs to scoop up if it hopes to form even a minority government.
    11 09 27 farmer fred
    Took in (for me) the final debate of the election. (I think there are two more yet to go, if the CKNX one is actually a debate).
    Lisa Thompson showed her complete lack of substance when knocked off her scripted talking points due to a process that allowed scrums between rounds of questions. Her performance was another embarrassment for the PC cause. She has since gone on twitter to play the ‘woe is me those poor mean other candidates that know what they are talking about are picking on me’ card. Making the spectacle of her spectacular failure even more embarrassing. Sorry Lisa, the problem is you- you don’t understand the issues and that lack of knowledge came home to roost thanks to the format. When you don’t know what you’re talking about unless it is in your talking points, and just seem to make things up to please whatever audience you are in front of, eventually it will catch up to you.
    Carol Mitchell put in a remarkably strong performance. She was clear and precise and savaged Thompson a few time. Her one misstep was trying to attack Robertson on an NDP education platform piece when she got her statement wrong- giving Robertson a chance to actually hold up the document and point out the page number. He did it with evident good humor which made Thompson’s catty interruption look even worse. Carol handled it with grace though, so I think it didn’t hurt her too bad.
    Robertson was again the stand out performer, talking directly to questions and issues and pointing out the vagueness of many of the Conservative changebook promises. He might of driven some of those points home even harder, but seemed to back off some preferring the high road I guess. The best exchange of the night was when the personal attack Queen Thompson tried to claim, like a typical bully, that she was being attacked by Robertson (when she wasn’t- but this is a trick she has tried to use before). Since it was an open mic he simply turned to her and said in a very calm voice. ‘No what I am doing is asking a simple and direct question about your party’s policy and you are refusing to answer.’ You could just see the air go out of the Conservative campaign staff.
    This was a Conservative riding to win. They should have it in the bag. But the weak Conservative campaign focused on nothing but attacks (including a personal Tea Partyesque attack ad against Carol Mitchell) is back firing terribly. Add to that a candidate that is clearly out of her depth and this riding that should be a cake walk, has turned three way competitive. The most likely scenario is still a squeaker of a PC win, even though it would be terrible for the riding having such a weak MPP, but this should have been a walk in the park for them and any of the big three parties could pull out a win.
    For anyone hanging around afterwards the spectacle of the Conservative supporters attacking the hosts for not allowing leading, personal attack anti-wind questions like they have done at other meetings and instead focusing on the many needs of Goderich and job creation (this was a Chamber of Commerce event) was rather distasteful. I simply can’t believe I considered voting for this crowd.
    11 09 26 Mike
    Being a Parliamentary Assistant to the Minister DOES NOT make that person the number 2 person in that ministry. The Minister is in charge, and the number 2 person in any ministry is NOT the Parliamentary Assistant to the Minister, but rather the Deputy Minister which is a civil service person appointed by the premier. The duties of a Parliamentary Assistant to a Minister is to represent that Minister in the Legislature whenever the Minister is unable to attend at the Legislature, to answer questions on behalf of the Minister in question period when the Minister is unable to attend question period, and to represent the Minister at official functions when the Minister is unable to attend. I would strongly recommend that you take back your insinuations that Carol was a part of the eHealth boondoggle when after an audit was done on eHealth, of the 1.2 billion dollars that was wasted, about 1 billion dollars was wasted by the previous Conservative government and not by the McGuinty government.
    11 09 26 Charlie Edwards
    I think Watchful and Farmer Fred have it right. I will go onto a limb. We all saw the polling data but that is from an automated survey and the margin of error is 5 per cent so all candiates are within it. Mitchell has no room to grow as she has made it clear she is not prepared to buck party policy on jails and windfarms. Robertson, as the strongest candidate, known all over the riding, with good ag credentials, has the inside track in a tight 3 way fight. But it appears clear that anyone can win the three-way fight.
    11 09 26 ruralbelle
    I beg to differ - that huge poll of 40,000 that you're talking about has the PCs in Huron-Bruce at 42% and Liberals at 26% and NDP at 25%, not sure how you think Mitchell has a chance this time.
    11 09 25 Jack in the Bruce
    This riding, like the rest of Ontario, was Hudak's to lose. And I think he is. Robertson may be best, but Paul Klopp and Bob Rae were HB's one misstep with the NDP. I just don't see us going back down that road again. And Thompson is a less experienced, less aggressive, less intelligent, less everything, version of Mitchell. The PCs needed something different...where'e Bezaire (not Twolan)when you need him????
    11 09 25 Thunder
    Should take a look at that entire poll results for each riding. Carol will be pushed to a third place finish.
    11 09 25 AD
    The latest poll out by Forum has one of the largest same sizes I've ever heard of in just about any study, so I take that as a cue to start making pedictions. With the Liberals and PCs this close, this riding looks like a LPO hold to me.
    11 09 24 rail splitter
    Carol Mitchell is finished in Huron-Bruce. Her own party leader threw her under the bus with the jail closure announcement. Her first response to the outcry was that she didn’t know anything about the closure. Hard to believe that as a cabinet minister she was either out of the loop or that she didn’t know about it. Perhaps that was why she appeared so uncomfortable sitting next to McGuinty at the opening of the IPM. And speaking of the IPM why isn’t her congratulatory letter and photo in the IPM brochure with all the other VIP’s.The provincial minister of agriculture is absent from the official brochure of the premier agricultural event in Ontario.
    Carol Mitchell was the parliamentary assistant to the minister of Health. He had to resign in disgrace with billions of dollars wasted in the e health scandal. Now I have to admit I didn’t know the huge authority the parliamentary assistant held but I have been told that she was the number two in the command of the ministry. After seeing her sling millions around the riding the last 6 weeks I am not surprised there was not any monetary restraint.
    Carol Mitchell then became the parliamentary assistant to George Smitherman at Municipal affairs. Again as number two at the ministry of Municipal Affairs she assisted with the implementation of the unpopular Green Energy act. As a politician who sat on municipal council and was two time warden of Huron County how could she in good conscience strip the local decision making authority away from the municipalities. Obviously she knew the local residents would resist wind turbines even though David Suzuki thinks they are great, but then he doesn’t have to live in the middle of them.
    Carol Mitchell then became the Minister of Agriculture a short time after the proposed ethanol plant for Hensall disappeared off the plans and ended up in the south end of the province. Kind of like the Walkerton Jail disappearing but a new super jail being built in Windsor. Her years of experience running a children’s clothing store obviously made her the best choice for agriculture.
    Now she has rammed the risk management insurance plan into play and the province has to go it alone. No premiums for this, the election year but we are starting to hear about limits to coverage and all kinds of restrictive strings attached the program. I guess she forgot to tell us about that while she was proclaiming herself as the mother of risk management. She also proclaimed that there was never a better time to be the minister of agriculture, at a time when beef feedlots were losing $250.00 per head and hog finishing barns were at best breaking even. In a news article she bragged to a reporter that she had to walk away from the table but reality is she was the only one at the table. The Feds and other provinces are not interested and now she has destroyed the working relationship with those agencies. R-Calf which is a powerful U.S. agricultural lobbying group is reportedly preparing to apply for countervailing duties against our agricultural products. With the current wave of economic protectionism in the U.S. the outcome of this challenge will certainly be up in the air.
    This week the first letters of a new lobby group A-B-C (anybody but Carol) began appearing in local newspapers. For these and a multitude of other reasons I don’t think she will be re-elected.
    11 09 24 farmer fred
    For the record I do not work on anyone’s campaign. In fact I hate party politics, even as I am fascinated by it -which is why I attend those stupid debates. And let me be clear I did't vote for Grant Robertson in the federal election. I voted for Ben Lobb in the end in a last minute decision because I did not want another minority government and another election in a couple of years. At the start of the campaign I was leaning voting Conservative, but after watching Lisa Thompson I will vote for anyone else first. If you read what I have written I have tried to be as non-biased as possible. I am trying to be in keeping with this site and report what I am seeing on the ground. I follow politics and travel around the riding a lot, I think that gives me a bit of perspective in this large riding.
    And let me give you a piece of advice-personally attacking someone like Grant Robertson who has dedicated so many years to his community, never once asking what was in it for him, will not win you many points. Most people, whether they vote for him or not still respect him, like him and know him to be a genuine person who cares. They also know his command of issues and their details are second to none. If you didn't know better most people would probably assume he was the senior Minister in the room, not Carol Mitchell. You show your desperation that your campaign is not going well in your behaviour.
    Here's some more free advice- your over the top attacks on Carol Mitchell are helping resurrect her political fortunes. In your clownish, Tea Party attempts to attack her you are making her a sympathetic figure. Pretending she was afraid to be in Port Elgin when you know full well she was acting in her role as Ag Minister at the IPM again shows how afraid you are that your campaign is not doing well. Carol was clearly on her feet and standing after your campaign's boorish behaviour in Kincardine and you helped her cause enormously. I would say that beyond your core anti-wind group most people leaving the event will have been feeling more inclined towards Carol than when they entered. Your actions belittles your campaign, not strengthens it.
    When it comes to unscripted questions your Conservative candidate is clearly out of her depth. It is clear to anyone who watches with a dispassionate eye. Had you nominated Mitch Twolan- this would be a cake walk, but because of the way Lisa Thompson is conducting herself and her campaign this riding is now too close to call.
    Don’t believe me about Kincardine? Here’s a local and well respected journalist’s take. Notice the headline – NDP’s Robertson dominates All Candidates. It is about as close to an endorsement from a normally Conservative leaning paper you are ever likely to see, since local papers around here never officially endorse anyone.
    11 09 24 Watchful
    Anybody who thinks they know the result of this race, in my opinion, is calling it in favour of the party they support. I think this is one of the most intriguing races in the province because it can go three different ways. It will be very interesting to see what happens. As far as I can tell, it's a dead heat.
    11 09 23 Mike
    I have been robo called by the PC campaign twice in the space of one week. As Farmer Fred mentioned, the PC's must really be very nervous about this riding. Lisa Thompson is not known at all in the southern portions of this riding which will hinder her chances in winning the riding. I drive through Exeter everyday and I remember of all the homes (over 20) that had Ben Lobb signs up, only about 4 have Thompson signs up, which in a Tory town, is not a good prognosis for the PC's. I also do think that the anti wind people are ironically helping Carol with thier over the top comments. Further, if the PC's are attacking Grant Robertson, then the tories must really be scared that the anti-Carol vote is being split. Ultimately, it may very well be a close race, but the signs are starting to look as though Carol will come up the middle and win re-election. Another thing in Carol's favor is her excellent record as Ag minister, which if she and the liberals are re-elected, she will probably continue being the Ag Minister.
    11 09 22 rail splitter
    wow farmer fred. I was at the debate in Kincardine as well. Lisa Thompson clearly won the debate. Articulate, engaging,honest and refreshing. This was her second debate in this type of forum, she scored legitimate points on Grant and Carol clearly frustrating them.
    Carol Mitchell showed her true debating skills when she lost it and began shouting at the crowd. I actually felt sorry for her.
    It was interesting to watch and listen to Grant Robertson. Talks a lot but we need to hear facts. All these NDP promises cost money, be nice to know what it will cost us. By the end of the debate Grant looked lost and unfocused. He then confirmed it for us. The poor man has been the unsuccessful candidate in so many recent elections he doesn't even know which election he is in. Urging people to vote for him in May likely won't get him many votes in October. Appears to be overly sensitive if anyone holds him accountable for his statements. He says he doesn't like attack politics but he should listen to himself and his workers talk.(ie:farmer Fred) Having a party leader who doesn't support nuclear and her energy critic the green peace guy will make NDP a hard sell in this riding.It will be a tight race but it looks like a PC victory
    11 09 22 LR
    After the debate in Kincardine were Carol Mitchell was rejected loudly by the audience and the ABC Anybody but CAROL movement was started she chose not to show up in Saugeen Shores Debate. Lisa Thompson is continuing to shine and the audience warmed up to her messages. Unlike Grant Robertson and the NDP who want to turn their backs on Nuclear, the PCs are fully engaged wit Nuclear, they Support the Bruce Power as a major economic driver in this area, she focused on what an NDP Government would do to for jobs and property values in Saugeen Shores and Kincardine Area.
    Grant Robertsons message of increasing taxes did not go over well, even the independent candidate drew bigger applause for point out to Grant that he should not be punishing companies that create jobs in this fragile economy with a big corporate tax. Many uncommitted supporters were lined up waiting to meet with Lisa Thompson, their soon to be MPP in Huron Bruce.
    11 09 21 farmer fred
    Took in another all-candidates meeting in Port Elgin tonight. Wind people were out in force and again hurting the Conservative cause. Come to the conclusion these PCs are not your grandfathers Conservatives. They are spiteful, arrogant and rude and full of nothing but attacks- I normally hate such comparisons but I can see why people describe this crowd as Tea Party North.
    Carol Mitchell was not in attendance as she was at the IPM. Grant Robertson was sicker than a dog, yet somehow managed to be the focus of the night and dominate the debate. At one point he looked like he might pass out, but he still soldiered on and was clearly the debate leader. Lisa Thompson did everything she could to evade questions on fiscal issues and the PC platform house of cards, the Walkerton Jail and where they would put the several billions in education funding she says the PCs will magically find to put into education.
    One thing I noticed is the the PC workers in the crowd lined up at the mic to specifically attack Grant Robertson. Since I have personally been polled by them with a robo-call 3 times, my guess is that their results must be spooking them. They seemed to be inordinately concerned about Robertson, when you would think they would want the NDP to take as many votes as possible. Maybe he is taking too many votes and they are afraid of losing and that is why they are targeting him constantly at every meeting? It was too the point that I watched this group hand out scripted questions to their workers and then they went to the mic to attack him. That's either a campaign that is not very smart, or very worried. Could be either.
    11 09 16 farmer fred
    Lordy, it was like watching amateur hour at tonight's all candidates debate in Kincardine when it came to PC candidate Lisa Thompson. She didn't understand many of the questions, including what an NGO was in a question from one of her own supporters even! I am getting a sense also that the anti-wind people are actually harming her cause, not helping it. It takes some work to make Carol Mitchell look like a sympathetic figure, but they managed it, through interruptions, insults and catcalling. It just came off as obnoxious. At one point she interrupted Grant Robertson to claim an attack, when he hadn't even mentioned anything about what she was going on about. And in Kincardine, the heart of energy in this riding she showed a profound ignorance about what kind of energy source nuclear even is. It was embarrassing really and I sense that the more people see her, the worse her campaign does. Saw someone come in with a Conservative button and leave wearing one of the NDP's. I really don't know what was worse either Lisa Thompson playing the racist card in regards to ‘foreign’ workers and students twice, or the way her supporters cheered it. All in all it was a pretty ugly performance by the Conservatives all around.
    Robertson was once again the stand out performer. Articulate, to the point, sensible, realistic and able to use his natural good humour to make solid points. Carol Mitchell did much better than in Walkerton and held her own on most questions but two. The first was the Walkerton Jail issue which Robertson owns, and the other was her ill-advised, over the top comments pre-election that much needed work at the Kincardine hospital was dependent on her re-election - when it is not. Other than that the constant personal attacks from Thompson actually played in Mitchell's favour. So nod to Robertson, with Mitchell a strong, but still behind 2nd and Thompson coming behind the Greens who were not in attendance.
    If elections were based solely on merit, Robertson would be running away with it. As it is this is a close three way race, with Thompson fading, and if Tory fortunes dive, she's sunk. Not what I was expecting pre-election, but it is what is shaping up. Right now though it is a three way contest and it is anyone's guess at this point who takes the ring.
    11 09 13 Canadian Election Atlas
    This will be a close race, but we know Huron-Bruce is an incumbent friendly seat. Paul Steckle won it in 2006 when it seemed all the other ridings in the area went Tory. Carol Mitchell won the seat by 7000 votes in 2007, and while most of these will disappear, it might be enough to win it. One thing that may maker her lose though is the NDP candidate, Grant Robertson. While finishing in a far 2nd place in the federal election, he was able to secure a quarter of the vote.
    11 09 08 Watchful
    First debate was in Walkerton and Robertson walked away the clear winner. He came off as the most realistic of the candidates. He was quick to react when attacked by Mitchell and kept it respectful.
    Carol Mitchell has to be rated in 2nd place for this debate, as the PC candidate was so bad, there’s just no choice. Mitchell stuck to the script for the most part, but got a little rattled during the Jails question and veered off on an attack of the NDP as being anti-nuclear. Other than that, she was clear at sticking to the health care and education talking points the Liberals have been very loud about.
    Thompson clearly put in a rookie performance. She stuck to the PC platform talking points and rarely strayed far. In one case (a child care question), she had no idea what the PC stance was, so she went into a ‘we’ll lower your taxes’ speech that seemed to confuse most. She tripped up a bit on the Walkerton Jail issue, first promising to keep it open, then later correcting herself and reverting to the PC promise to conduct a study into the feasibility of the jail.
    Patrick Main (Green) and Christine Schnurr (Family Coalition) did not attend, but sent regrets.
    Overall, I think it’s a tremendous start for Robertson, who is gaining steam in a very red-or-blue riding. Mitchell held her own and Thompson was left in the dust.
    This is a three-way race and it’s a very close one. Will come down to provincial momentum, I think. Robertson would be a clear winner of this riding if his party was less outspoken against nuclear power. It will dog him in this riding. I will still say Thompson, but I think it’s really, really close.
    11 09 02 farmer fred
    I think this has to go into the three way race category given what is happening in the polls.
    Mitchell is all but done, that seems a given. Her desperate attempt to use taxpayer dollars to send out a 'newsletter' that was clearly an election document about 10 days before the election seems to have been the final straw for a lot of folks. She will still have a base though around Clinton and area.
    Thompson is finally making the rounds and underwhelming people on a regular basis. But residule Conservative support in this riding gives her a raised boat already even without a high tide.
    And then there is Grant Robertson. Well liked and respected and I am hearing people say they think that he has shown such dedication to the issues that it is time to vote for him. But then there is the nuclear issue, which he is on the right side of from a local perspective, but has the party's policy is a millstone.
    As the campaign starts I am expecting a squeaker, but this riding seems to go with the tide, so the provincial campaign will have the determining factor.
    At this point I would say the most likely winners in ranked order are Thompson, unless Tory numbers continue to fall, Robertson, especially if NDP numbers continue to climb and Mitchell who will only survive if the Liberals do. We kicked out a cabinet minister two elections ago and it seems likely we will do it again.
    The open question to me will be what will the farm population do. Will they reward Mitchell, or sensing her defeat will they back Robertson, who would be the most obvious ag minister for the NDP in a government scenario (however unlikely), or go with a no-name backbencher who doesn't really seem to get it yet and who would have zero influence in the Legislature.
    11 08 19 Watchful
    This will be a very interesting race.
    Carol Mitchell is not terribly popular right now with the wind turbines and the Walkerton Jail being major issues against her in the riding, that's not even factoring in the general discontent with the Liberals province-wide.
    Lisa Thompson is a virtual unknown outside of Teeswater. She will obviously get right-leaning Liberal votes looking for chance and I figure she has the best chance to win. I thought the P.C.'s best chance was to go with Mitch Twolan, but perhaps the local riding felt he lacked the charisma to go head-to-head with Carol in a debate.
    It appears all but certain Grant Robertson will run for the NDP. Had a very strong showing federally and the NDP has been at the forefront of the jail issue, but I have strong doubts that issue resonates very far outside the boundaries of Brockton. The NDP have also been an outspoken critic of nuclear power, and that most certainly works against them in this riding where the nuclear industry puts food on thousands of tables.
    Typically, you wouldn't bet against a cabinet minister, but Mitchell has been fairly low-profile in her own riding up until the last calendar year or so when the election-mode kicked in. Her lack of outspokenness in the wake of the Walkerton Jail announcement was perhaps the final straw. Carol goes down for backing the party rather than her constituents.
    Whomever the Greens dig up to run will be a non-factor. Serda might be the only one who could grab some attention, but I can't see her running after she passed on a federal run. Her ‘Green’ status worked against her mayoral bid in Saugeen Shores, not that she had a chance in the first place.
    I think there's two big factors to watch here from a local perspective: First, it's the Green Energy Act. The wind turbines are hated to the extent that most rural votes are clear-cut P.C. votes this time around.
    The other is the NDP factor. If in fact it is Robertson running, he will siphon off votes from Mitchell and make a Thompson victory more certain.
    Taking the P.C. candidate nobody knows by 5-10%.
    11 05 26 jeff316
    Sure-fire Conservative win. Carol Mitchell was a write-off last election who was saved by John Tory's disastrous private religious school funding policy flip-flop. Carol is unique for a politician in the sense that she's neither charismatic, particularly competent, or all that likeable. She can be aggressive and petty and makes as many enemies as she does friends. Now that the Conservatives have regrouped, and the wind-issue is breathing down Liberal necks, she is toast. The question is whether Grant Robertson will run for the NDP and whether he'll be able to push Carol Mitchell down to third. Unlikely, in my books.
    11 05 19 farmer fred
    Word is there is enormous pressure being put on Grant Robertson to run provincially after his strong showing federally. If I had to guess I would guess he will stay out- but after the federal you never know.
    However, if he did it would virtually ensure Carol Mitchell's defeat (not his win- but her defeat)
    Lisa Thompson, the Conservative, is fairly well known around Teeswater, but not at all known anywhere else. She won't be a particularly strong local candidate, but as we saw in the recent federal election in Quebec, that hardly matters much anymore. If she was the beneficary of a vote split she would likely be on her way.
    With Jolley set to run next door in Bruce-Grey there will be some ovelap attention in the north of the riding so it might bring someone like Victoria Serda out of the woodwork and she would certainly attract some votes for the Greens.
    Between Mitchell's terrible reputation on constituency work, the industrial wind issue and the Walkerton jail she will have a hard time winning again - the entry of Robertson would seal the deal. If I was her I would use my position as Minister and do something, like an appointment to some commission or something, to try to make sure he stays out.
    11 05 12 Gone Fishing
    I really want to make this one lean right but I think the incumbent is noted for great constituency work and is likely to hang on here but I think it is going to be closer.
    I am not so sure though that the previous poster commenting on this as a traditional Liberal riding is all that true. Murry Elston was a great personality and well known. Not quite a Paul Steckle his federal cousin but an old style centrist Liberal. There was a time when that went a long way but with so few centrist Liberals left it is hard to see such a candidate in a rural farm setting carrying the Liberals. it is all about personality and constituency work.
    I may change my mind depending on who the PC candidate is.
    11 03 15 seasaw
    Though, this is not a traditional Conservative riding, remember Liberal Murray Elston, held this riding for years, at this time the Tories have a better chance of winning this rural riding. Over the years, the Tories have become more popular in rural Ontario than the Liberals, so we'll predict a pick up for the Tories.

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