Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Hamilton Mountain

Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:31:15

Constituency Profile


Aggelonitis, Sophia

Elms, Geordie

Enos, Jim

Goodwin, Brian

Morris, Tony

Taylor, Monique

Wienhold, Hans

Hon Sophia Aggelonitis


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 09 29 A.S.
    The Liberals won in '07 in part because they chose well--and I'll still give Aggelonitis the benefit of the doubt, even if btw/Horwathmania and her MPP predecessor being creamed in her bid for Liberal MP, things are looking awfully dicey. But I'll say this more for certain: in a seat cozy next door to the provincial leader's, where the NDP was a close second last time and rules federally, the PCs are *not* going to win. Nix, nil, zippo, even if the provincial PC leader *also* happens to be next door...
    11 09 27 Hamiltonian
    Polls are showing a three way race, I've knocked on many doors and its humorous how many people have NDP signs and then tell me ‘their union told them to put it up but i'm voting PC’. Whoever GOTV will win. Don't underestimate any party. A lot will depend on the debate results.
    11 09 26 Double J
    Hamilton Mountain has clearly become just as big stronghold for the NDP as Hamilton Centre and Hamilton East Stoney Creek. Monique Taylor is winning the sign war by a large margain and all the polling being done points to a large NDP victory. Tory candidate Geordi Elms isn't running much of a campaign but it's enough to chip away at the right side of Aggelonitis support. In the end the NDP will finish first, the Liberals second and the Tories third. Aggelonitis never had a chance in the new, ultra left wing Hamilton.
    11 09 24 AlexS
    This is going to be a tight race but I truly think that the NDP has the advantage here this time. Monique Taylor has the most signs up and its clear that the Liberals are doing spot sign bombs - as you see give or six houses having signs amungst NDP strong streets.
    11 09 22 Love Game
    Hamilton Mountain is polling in the 40's for the NDP and the LPO and Conservatives are still fighting in the 20's.
    This will be a win for the NDP.
    11 09 21 JD
    The NDP will take this one. The Liberals won by a small margin in 2007 and they are not likely to repeat. The entire City of Hamilton is slowly becoming an NDP fortress.
    11 09 17 Daniel
    The NDP campagin on Hamilton Mountain is weak compared to past campaigns. Some internal decent over the nominated candidate (who some consider a weak choice)suggests the Mountain will re-elect the known Liberal candidate.
    11 09 17 Christopher
    This is clearly going to be an NDP pickup - the NDP out number the liberals in sign locations and I'm starting to see large signs go up all over the main streets. It will be a close race but I very much believe that this will be one of the seats the NDP pick up = federally the NDP own this seat and with their provincial numbers so high I have no doubt.
    11 09 06 jeff316
    I believe that Monique is the assistant to local city councillor Scott Duvall and he is very, very popular, even across party lines. That being said, the visibility of an assistant to a councillor is minimal, and Hamilton Mountain is more affluent than the other urban Hamilton ridings, making an NDP win here a little more difficult. Yes, the NDP holds the federal riding but Sophia is high profile and a total class act. Very likeable. She could eek this one out, particularly if the current Liberal numbers hold. She must be worried though - her conciliatory and non-partisan tone has been thrown out the window somewhat of late, and she's starting to spout the party lines in the media and at public events.
    11 09 02 Double J
    Sophia Aggelonitis won this riding by less than 2000 votes in 2007, when the NDP came strong second. Both the NDP and Tories are higher in the polls than they were in the last election so Aggelonitis will lose some votes on both the left and right. The NDP will win this seat giving them all three of the urban Hamilton ridings.
    11 08 14 Canadian Election Atlas
    The NDP should have won this seat in 2007, when it was open, but wasted the opportunity. However, the party wasn't strong enough in the polls. Recent polls have shown the NDP is at least 5% higher then last time, which means that seats like Hamilton Mountain should fall to them. We saw in the federal election that name recognition doesn't necessarily bode well for the Liberals here as previously thought, when the former MPP (Marie Bountrogianni) finished a distant third.
    11 07 22 robert
    Struggling with this one. Sophia does appear to be well received in this riding and seems to be a nice person indeed. McGuinty will be her anchor that could cause her loss. Although im predicting an NDP upset id be more comfortable with a better candidate. Smith is a terrible public speaker and was not the Charlton's first choice. Riding Association may not be 100% united behind her. She has lots of work to do. Central Party seems to think she is a star on the rise.
    11 07 14 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Can't see this staying Liberal. With the NDP holding their numbers (if not gaining) and the PC drawing Liberal support, the NDP should take this. Our prediction is that the Liberals will be third here.
    11 05 26 OgtheDim
    Not exactly a great result for the Liberals in the federal election as they drop to third.
    This is a natural pick up for the NDP.
    11 05 09 Art
    Gone with the wind. Just went NDP federally. Gone.
    11 03 24 jeff316
    Don't read too much into Chris Charlton's 2008 federal result. (She may not even hold the riding federally against Bountrogianni.) Sophia is super-friendly, respected by even her most ardent critics, and is a star on the rise. She will likely survive a squeaker, even if there is the most disastrous Liberal slide, to become a top-tier Liberal talent over the next few years.
    11 03 26 AJVAN
    Sophia has been a hands on MPP as well as cabinet minister. She is well liked and if the federal Liberal candidate (Maria Bountrogianni) can wrestle this from NDP this will be a hold for sure.
    11 03 03 MF
    Definitely a top-tier target for the NDP. They hold the riding federally and Andrea Horwath should have coat-tails in her hometown. They came pretty close to taking it last time, and the McGuinty government is much less popular this time around.
    11 02 27 Leo
    Sophia Aggelonitis won this riding in 2007 as a new candidate. Four years later, she has greater name recognition in the riding, is still well-liked, and now is an incumbent, as well as a cabinet minister, the only minister federally or provincially in Hamilton. There's a chance that this could be close but Aggelonitis will probably get re-elected easily.
    11 02 24 Art
    A cabinet minister with negative cash flow in 2009 scrambling to have a fundraiser soon ? is seriously struggling, however personable. Marie B. was a better pick. Libs lost her. This plus the gyrations around the stadium, greenbelt and Ontario Realty situation makes this a very vulnerable riding. NDP pick up.
    11 02 02 binriso
    Almost certain that the NDP will pick up the other Hamilton seat.
    -New Leader from the area and riding just next door
    -NDP polling equally well or higher than last election
    -Liberals down close to ten points across the province and likely reduced to a minority government (or PC minority).
    By just standing still, the NDP should be able to pick up at least half a dozen Liberal ridings this time around.

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