Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:31:15

Constituency Profile


Coverdale, Erik

Langton, Glenn

Maton, Bob

McMeekin, Ted

Melanson, Peter

Skelly, Donna

Smith, Rick Dunderman

Westerhoff, Trevor

Ted McMeekin


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 10 05 James
    This prediction must be a joke. Every riding specific poll has the Liberals, and the incredibly popular local MPP Ted McMeekin, ahead. Hudak had 15 people in his visit to Dundas a few days ago. Mid-Pen support is killing them here. McMeekin in a walk, and won't even be close.
    11 10 04 James
    Correct me if I am wrong but I do not think Tim Hudak has been in this riding much or at all during this campaign. If he thought he had a chance, he'd be here. Instead he is focusing on other ridings that he thinks he can win.
    I think it will be closer than it was last time, but the Liberals will win this one again.
    Apparently even Tim thinks so.
    11 10 01 A.S.
    How strong *is* the NDP here, anyway? After all, despite being next door to Hamilton (and now with the usually solid-left McMaster nabe within the seat), and despite previous ?serious contender? runs by Gordon Guyatt, the NDP somehow fell *behind* the Liberals federally this past spring. As for McMeekin, he's survived largely through having gotten his by-election foot in the door in 2000; otherwise, given how close his races have been, it might well have stayed PC through 2003 if not 2007. But because of Dundas/Westdale, the seat isn't necessarily so low-hanging for the PCs, either, particularly if localized Horwath fever tokenly shaves off *those* votes as well. Still, it's low-hanging enough for the Tories to contribute yet another of those Hamiltonian-phenomenon broadcaster star candidates--and Skelly's a lot more ?mainstream? than MP David Sweet--and remember: the rural part essentially organically extends the ?Hudak belt? around Horwathian Hamilton...
    11 09 29 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    This is one where a strong showing for the NDP will hurt the Liberals and help the PC.
    11 09 23 AD
    With the LPO polling down from their 2007 numbers, the PCs up, and a growth in NDP support this riding looks to be a PC win. This is further supported by the fact the the NDP polled well according to Ledger's ?South? region. I think this is going to become a three way race, the progressive vote will be split and the PCs will win.
    11 09 15 Double J
    The best chance Donna Skelly has of beating Ted McMeekin is for the NDP to split the left vote and allow her to come up the middle. Sadly for the Tories Trevor Westerhoff has been a non factor in the campaign. The NDP will get their usual votes in Westdale but in the rest of the riding Trevor is a fringe candidate at best. Without the vote split, McMeekin hold this riding.
    11 09 10 R.O.
    A likely Ontario pc pickup by the time election is over , don't see this riding staying liberal much longer and it really should be a conservative riding . Donna Skelly is a good candidate for the pc's and can compete against Ted Mcmeekin who is well known in the riding. the strong ndp presence in nearby Hamilton will make it difficult for the liberals to hold this riding as i'm sure the ndp will get more than 13% this election and any increase for the ndp is coming from the liberals in this riding.
    11 07 20 jeff316
    Oh, this one is going to be interesting! Skelly vs McMeekin - could there be a bigger local clash of personalities in this election? Skelly is well-known, high profile, thoroughly local, self-focused, and opinionated to a fault. On a stage she's great, one-on-one...well...not so much. Ted is a friendly, thoughtful former mayor and local business-owner, although he's been portrayed as a no-hoper (career-wise), is not the sharpest communicator, and his maverick credentials reek of opportunism, at best. But like Maria Van Bommel or France Gelinas or Julia Munro, Ted is one of those guys who is just a class act and wins respect from all parties. Will the desire for change be enough to throw out a well respected MPP with long-time municipal roots? Or will Skelly's brashness buck the trend and keep McMeekin as MPP? Who knows. (PS - Nobody cares about Corrigan, the nomination or any PC inside baseball. Pushing aside Corrigan is no loss - he has military honours, and is a thoroughly decent man, but for a political candidate he's pretty average.)
    11 03 16 Jill
    the PC party has turned its back on democracy by turfing Colonel Corrigan and acclaiming Donna Skelly. They have decided that a star candidate who doesn't feel like facing a nomination race is worth more than someone who has worked tirelessly for 5 years since 2007 to secure the voting base needed to win.
    This will be 2011's John Tory moment in this riding, ensuring the base stays home, the team is fragmented, allowing the liberals to waltz into another victory.
    Liberal hold
    11 03 10 Bryan
    McMeekin may be riding focussed, but he won't be able to hold it this time. a 3400 vote gap from 2007 is nothing with the polls where they are today. The PCs still gained over 2003 while the others fell. THe Tory effect is the only reason this didn't switch hands last time around. The NDP candidate can't be any weaker than Maldonado was last time. If Skelly takes it, the margin of victory is larger than Corrigan, but either way, it's turning blue in October.
    11 03 06 Yannick T.
    Should be a tough fight but I see McMeekin pulling off another victory. If it was any other Liberal running, they'd lose but McMeekin is so riding and community focused it will be hard to defeat him. The only thing that may trip him up is a strong NDP candidate, but it doesn't look like that will be happening. I say Liberal hold.
    11 02 24 Bryan
    Whether it's Colonel Corrigan from 2007 or Donna Skelley from CHCH news (nomination meeting pending), they'll defeat McMeekin (if he runs again). I think the PCs would have taken it last time if not for the school funding issues. This should be one of the first seats gained by the PCs this time around.

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