Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Guelph


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:35:50
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Bender, Phil

Dyck, Steven

Garvie, Drew

Gordon, James

Ichim, Julian

Sandals, Liz

Schirk, Greg

Incumbent:
Liz Sandals

Reference:

  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election


    2007 Result:


    * LIZ SANDALS
    20,34640.92%
    BOB SENECHAL
    12,18024.49%
    BEN POLLEY
    9,75019.61%
    KARAN MANN-BOWERS
    6,88013.84%
    JOHN GOTS
    4050.81%
    DREW GARVIE
    1660.33%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1925442.97%
    1545034.48%
    576512.86%


  •  


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    11 10 04 Ottawa LFC
    134.117.254.249
    The NDP seem to be running a strong campaign. Liz goes in as a favorite, but James may pull away enough votes to send Greg to Queens Park. Looks to be a close, three way race on Thursday.
    11 10 03 seasaw
    99.224.215.171
    This was not supposed to happen. We have a very unpopular premier and an unpopular MPP. Don't get me wrong Liz hasn't been a bad MPP, but she is just unpopular. The Tories have a very likeable and approachable candidate, NDP has an amazing candidate and the Green Party candidate is a good one as well.Also, the Tories had a 15 point lead at one point and poll after poll showed only 25% of people thought McGuinty deserved to be reelected. This bellwether riding was going to be a shoe-in for the Tories. Well, campaigns matter and the Liberals as usual ran a flawless campaign. The Tory campaign ? What campaign ? Like the undisputed heavy weight champion of the world trying to win a fight by just standing in the rink. Ontario electorate is volatile, remember Frank Miller and his big lead? remember David Peterson and Lyn McLeod? Well, things are different now and with the Liberals with their 4 point lead, they could very well win a majority or a minority, in which case advantage Sandals, with the outside shot of a Tory minority then Schirk will win. Interesting fact about this riding is with the exception of '07, the Tories have always come up 2-6 points ahead of provincial average while the Libs have gotten 1.5-5 points lower. This could be a close one.
    11 10 03 Lucky
    99.225.8.205
    James Gordon may not have enough votes to beat Liz Sandals, but I think he will get more votes than the PC candidate.
    11 10 02 A.S.
    99.233.218.204
    While the NDP vote may indeed have been suppressed by the Green boomlet lately, it's not to the point where a collapsing Green vote'll slide wholesale to the NDP--especially given how the provincial Liberals have positioned themselves as ‘greener’ than the ONDP in this campaign--it would require more of a generic Liberal decline to put this in play; and given Sandals' present soft mandate, it's not out of the question. Then again, given the Green-collapse scenario, she could be the rare provincial Liberal to have a *higher* share this time. Maybe the NDP's better positioned in Guelph than the Tories this time; but given Horwath's positioning, their more likely SW Ontario ‘steals’ at this point are blue-collar than green-collar...
    11 09 29 Lucky
    99.225.8.205
    I believe it will be very tight race between Liberals, Conservatives and the NDP. Green Party candidate is not as strong as the last time. If green supporters tend to vote for James Gordon, NDP will get this seat.
    11 09 10 d/stm
    184.145.125.114
    Well. Don't know where seesaw got his/her information. I saw the MPP at Canada Day all afternoon and into the evening. Did seesaw attend the citizenship program and who attended? No I didn't think so. No cameras there. Yes Guelph took a big hit during the recession but jobs are basically back to prerecession levels and a lot of those are green energy jobs and represent new opportunities for manufacturing other than the auto industry. Jobs that apparently will disappear in a pique of FIT if Hudack/Hutton/Harris are elected. Can't comment on unreturned phone calls without data.
    11 09 08 seasaw
    99.224.215.171
    Oh so d/stm’s saying Liz Sandals is everywhere? Her constituency office is doing a great job helping people? Her vote % increased in ‘07 from ‘03? She’s bringing jobs ? Ha, well I live in the riding and I can tell she only appears in front of cameras and that’s all. On Canada Day while the federal MP spent the entire day talking and mingling with people Liz showed up for 5 minutes made an announcement and left. Her constituency office is notorious for not returning calls and her vote % well she only got 40 in ‘07, last time I checked that was lower than 44 in ‘03, as a matter of fact her vote total dropped from 26,000 in ‘03 to 20,000 in ‘07. As for bringing jobs, tell that to the 3,000 unemployed since she’s been an MPP> she’s got a slim chance in case of a Lib landslide.
    11 09 04 d/stm
    184.145.125.114
    It seems to me that Sandals is everywhere in the riding; social, cultural, fund raising and of course announcements.
    Her quarterly news letters are full of items of local interest.
    Her constituency office has a cadre of truly knowledgeable and helpful staffers.
    She may not be in cabinet but she is on Management Board which is (next) best in terms of knowing what is going on and the best in terms of the economic impact of deliberations/ decisions.
    Most important she is well informed and smart.
    Nothing gets by this woman in terms of what is good for her riding be that green jobs or education.
    Given her education background, issues such as JK, student achievement, college/university accessibility are on her radar all the time.
    Given her track record in increasing her vote % in 2007 vs 2003 and the dubious/ non existent track record or her opponents I see this as a Sandals win.
    The one caveat is the Dalton factor. I expect she polls better in Guelph than Dalton but the real issue is Hudak. I suspect when voters compare and contrast, they will opt for the known steady hand vs the Hudak/Hutton/Harris past.
    In part based on the federal vote in 2011 voters know that an NDP vote (or Green) will give the election to the Tories. Guelph voters do not want that. I think they will totally reject (frat boy) Hudak if the Conservative stick to their current totally negative script.
    Interesting to see how the Lib's platform contrasts the negativity of the Cons and NDP.
    Perhaps the telling point is that all the opposition parties basically intends to keep Lib mayor initiatives (eg. HST, JK)

    11 06 22
    184.146.116.221
    The NDP have nominated James Gordon, a musician and activist with deep roots in the community. Unlike Tom King in the 2008 federal race, Gordon's credentials are almost all local and he is admired across the spectrum for his political astuteness as much as his music and community work. Liz Sandals is tired of life on the back benches (there was some serious speculation in Liberal circles that she would not run again) and the Greens are without the charismatic Ben Polley this time, whose energetic campaign was the springboard for the Greens' success in the riding. It's hard to imagine any candidate posing a serious challenge to someone of Gordon's stature, and with even a middling campaign he should win handily.
    11 06 09 SB
    70.26.164.103
    Guelph was one of the eleven seats in Ontario that went Liberal federally. University of Guelph is located in this riding which can be a tilt for the Liberals. Dalton McGuinty may have raised tuition rates, but students will prefer McGuinty's education friendly over the Tories.
    The Tories may squeeze through this one if the NDP manages to have a strong showing.
    11 05 18 binriso
    142.167.166.13
    Interesting that the winner here may not get 30% of the votes but I see the Liberals as having an advantage here, the Greens are very close to second place and the NDP are a decent though distant fourth place. If their vote declines it will help the Liberals, though if the PCs are headed to an easy win they might even lose to a Green surge due to a Liberal implosion. As it looks there will likely be a minority for the PCs or possibly Liberals but I see the PCs taking probably 20 or more other seats before Guelph.
    11 03 15 Art
    174.91.79.69
    Guelph is a swing riding, especially if an election is held during the fall when UofG students are there in large numbers. With falling Liberal fortunes this could swing PC.
    11 02 21 seasaw
    99.224.215.171
    This is my home riding and it is perhaps one of the most, if not the most interesting riding in the province. The truth is neither Liz Sandals nor Dalton McGuinty are at all popular here. Green Party's strong, though the last time they took a lot of votes from the Tories due to the school issue. This time, with current polls showing the Liberals trailing the Tories by 5-12 points, that the Liberals will lose a lot of votes both to the Tories and the Greens. This could be a close three way race, but somehow no one can see Liz Sandals come on top.



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