Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:20:30

Constituency Profile


Brombacher, Mark

Broten, Laurel

Coley, Dionne

Kunov, Hans

Letonja, John

Lochwin, Natalie

MacKay, Thane C

Nyilassy, Simon

Salewsky, Angela

Hon Laurel C. Broten


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 10 03 Pete B.
    Broten wins this one easily. She was a largely ineffective Environment Minister but did a lot of background work fro the Green Energy Act. If the Liberals are reelected, she will go back into the cabinet.
    11 09 30 JLM
    My predictions for the Ontario Provincial election in Etobicoke – Lakeshore is a liberal win. I live in Longbranch and have yet to see the conservative candidate during this campaign. It has been reported in several media outlets, including the Toronto Star and Etobicoke Guardian, that the conservatives are running a peek a boo campaign. Mind you, I have however received several recorded calls from the conservatives. Judging by the partisan signs, Laurel Broten would appear to be winning the battle. In fact, I have run into her (she was on my street just last week); I also saw her campaign workers pounding the pavement almost every time I run errands. Several businesses, particularly on the Lakeshore, appear to be supporting Ms. Broten as well. It looks to me that organisationally, the liberals are making their presence felt. I also noticed that the liberals and NDP were meeting with constituents at the Lakeshore Mardis Gras a few weeks ago. It is unfortunate that the NDP candidate resides in Scarborough, she does appear to be very personable.
    Mes prévisions pour l’élection générale de l’Ontario dans Etobicoke – Lakeshore est une victoire libéral. J’habite a Longbranch et jusqu'à date, je n’ai pas vu le candidat conservateur durant cette campagne. Il a été rapporté dans les médias, incluant le Toronto Star et Etobicoke Guardian, que les conservateurs mènent une campagne de cachette. Par contre, j’ai reçu plusieurs messages enregistrés de la part des conservateurs. Jugeant par les enseignes partisanes, Laurel Broten semble avoir gagnée cette bataille. Je l’ai vue de passage (elle est passée sur ma rue la semaine dernière). Ces bénévoles semblent être partout, je les croisent souvent en faisant mes amplettes. Plusieurs commerces, particulièrement ceux du Lakeshore supportent Mmme Broten. Sur le plan organisationnel, les libéraux font sentir leur présence. J’ai aussi remarqué que les libéraux et NDP rencontraient les citoyens lors du Mardis Gras du Lakeshore il y a quelques semaines. Malheureusement, la candidate du NPD habite à Scarbourough; elle semble par contre très sympathique.
    11 09 25 MT
    Broten will hold this riding. Nyilassy is putting up more of a fight than the Conservatives did in 2007 but Broten won that election by nearly 7,000 votes. And the NDP campaign is weaker this time round which should benefit her. Driving around the riding today also shows Broten is winning the sign war.
    11 09 25 AD
    This riding I have been following for a while now as it seemed to be a prime example of the PC sweep in the last federal election, where Iggy lost his own seat. I think if the PCs manage another majority sweep in Ontario this will be one such riding to turn blue like it did federally earlier this year. From the looks of things, however, the LPO incumbant should be able to hold her seat and this riding will remaing liberal, at least for this election. This would certainly be consistent with the narrative the Liberals are trying to push about Ontarians hedging power between Queen's Park and Ottawa, although I've never bought into that one too much personally. Far more ominous is the track record of premieres going for their third term...
    11 09 22 JT
    Laurel Broten will be re-elected. The Conservatives are running a better campaign than four years ago but they are losing the sign war everywhere except Simon's neighbourhood. Simon is refusing to attend all candidates' meetings and in a surprising move has admitted publicly (he was quoted in The Guardian) that skipping them is a deliberate strategy. An odd thing to say and it will not go over well with many voters. The NDP campaign is very weak and is almost invisible. The NDP candidate lives in Scarborough and was a candidate in Scarborough less than a year ago. This area of Etobicoke was our Mayor's weakest part of Etobicoke a year ago and we all know what has happened since then. Laurel Broten obviously learned a lot when she was kicked out of Cabinet and since returning to Cabinet in the Children's portfolio she has been a much stronger politician. She is running a great campaign. This riding is a bit of a swing riding but Laurel Broten will be re-elected unless there is a big rising tide for the Hudak Tories and that seems unlikely. Simon has the bad luck of having a very weak NDP candidate from Scarborough and he will not be helped by her at all. The best advice I can give Simon at this point is that he should help Dionne Coley raise some money so that she can try to get her campaign started.
    11 09 19 Ed Lenarcic
    With a blue sacrificial lamb having knocked off the federal Leader of the Opposition, the provincial blues are understandably confident they have a good chance here. Both blue and red came out strongly with signs right from day one. (No other colour appears to be remotely in the running.) So far the signs appear to be pretty much even. I'm surprised at how many blues are to be found in the low-income Lakeshore area. But the PCs have been much more aggressive in their phone campaign, right back to well before the election call. The Star did a profile on this riding on Sep 19 and pointed out that E-L has gone the way of the winning party right back to the Rae days. With the polls showing a dead heat right now, the sign balance isn't surprising. Prediction: once again, this will go to the winning party.
    11 09 11 A.S.
    Laurel Broten's lucky; not only has the silliness over home renos and ?Flick Off? faded in memory, but Count Iggy's electoral clove of garlic has practically turned her ?not Ignatieff? handicap into virtue--even against a more obviously aggressive Tory challenger. It doesn't make Etobicoke-Lakeshore any less of a belwether--though for Broten to survive where Iggy didn't would sure send a whole lot of messages re ?electoral appeal?, et al.
    11 05 26 OgtheDim
    Tories went with a star candidate.....well if you think being a property developer means you are a star. The National Post seems to think he's a star.
    For 5 years, he was a top executive with Smart Centres. You know, those massive one story only malls that are showing up everywhere and using the OMB to make sure local property development goes its way. After that, he did well by running a company that owns a lot of land around where the Spadina subway will end.
    I'm trying to think what connection he has to south Etobicoke. I'm also trying to think what he has that Broten doesn't.
    11 05 09 Art
    With the federal leader defeated here, the less than universally popular, MPP Broton is unlikely to remain as a left over of the 'magnificent seven.' PC pick up.
    11 02 18 seasaw
    This one's going to be tough for the Liberals to hold. Neither McGuinty nor Broten are very popular in this riding. This'll probably be one of the first if not the first 416 riding to go blue.

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