Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Etobicoke Centre

Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:20:30

Constituency Profile


Bussmann, Alexander

Cansfield, Donna

Demonte-Whelan, Mary Anne

Millican, Liz

Renda, Marco

Rivero, Ana Maria

San Juan, Cheryll

Donna H. Cansfield


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 09 15 A.S.
    Remember that Cansfield's one of those ex-PCs who went Liberal thanks to Harris/Eves. With the seat's overall record, *plus* its being past home to Harper and present home to Ford, EtobCen should be generically competitive--even if it went FedCon only by a recount. And come to think of it, the unwieldy name of the PC competitor should be fair compensation for those who miss having to pronounce ‘Borys Wrzesnewskyj’;-)
    11 07 24 Greenhorn
    This will be a close race but I expect the Tories to take it if the current polls hold. The Liberals are falling and are losing ground by the day. Expect an even bigger push provincially on this riding than federally. Cansfield is in trouble.
    11 03 16 Nitin
    Donna Cansfield will solidly be re-elected in this safe Liberal seat in Toronto with aging, broadly middle-class voters. While Donna has a lower profile since her demotion by Premier McGuinty - she's no longer a minister - she has won the seat in 2003 and 2007 with strong pluralities - upwards of 48%. She maintains an evident community presence and as a resident, I don't sense major community or social issue that would compel a major sea change come Election Day. Of course, the Liberals are seemingly less popular now than they were in 2007; nonetheless, I still think it's a safe seat for Cansfield.
    11 03 15 seasaw
    If things continue the way they are, if the poll numbers stay the same, this is a sure PC pick up. Donna Cansfield won the riding in '03, largely due to 3 factors, firstly, incumbent Chris Stockwell retired from politics, secondly there was an appetite for change not only here but across the province, thirdly, the Tories failed to attract a strong candidate. Now there's a similar appetite for change of gov't, but this time that factor will work against Cansfield.

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