Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Dufferin-Caledon


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:35:50
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Gventer, Karen Marilyn

Holloway, Lori

Jones, Sylvia

Kowalewski, Daniel

Strang, Rob

Incumbent:
Sylvia Jones

Reference:

  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election


    2007 Result:


    SYLVIA JONES
    16,52241.85%
    BETSY HALL
    12,63832.01%
    ROB STRANG
    6,43016.29%
    LYNDA MCDOUGALL
    3,8939.86%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1026326.86%
    2225458.25%
    223105.83%


  •  


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    11 09 24 Retired Observer
    99.228.7.210
    I do no tlive in the riding but visited there for several days this past week. My observations are (1) that the Green Canadidate, Rob Strang is winning the battle of the signs big time in this huge riding. Sylvia Jones seems to be getting the brunt of the criticism for her alledged support of the mega quarry. Seems that this is the perfect storm for the Greens to elect their first Ontario candidate. Can only cloud the issue of either of the two major parties forming a minority government. This riding should be declared at this point as Mr. Strang has too much of a lead for Ms.Jones to possibly catch up.
    11 09 22 A.S.
    99.233.218.204
    I think the ?weak? PC result last time had a lot to do with its being an open seat and the Ernie Eves '03 incumbency skewing the notional-swing picture. More likely now is an approximation of the federal three-way-tie-for-distant-second trend hereabouts--though maybe with a token governing-party bump for the Liberals.
    11 08 15 R.O.
    24.146.23.226
    Weak result for the pc's here last time alot of that likely had to do with John Tory and way 2007 campaign played out . i would expect the pc's to do better here now that Sylvia Jones had a term as mpp. its also a riding where the greens still a factor and i would expect them to do better here than in other ridings where they may have a hard time getting anywhere near 10%. but they still may not be able to pass the liberals for second its tough to say.
    11 03 07 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    174.89.193.199
    Another easy prediction. PC hold. Would even bet they get over 50% this time, maybe even over 55% of the vote.



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