Election Prediction Project
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Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Davenport


Prediction Changed
2011-10-07 10:29:22
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Cauchi, Franz

de Jong, Frank

Figueroa, Miguel

Ghiwot, Kiros

Jagg, Mark

Martins, Cristina

Russell, Kirk

Schein, Jonah

Thompson, Allix

Incumbent:
Tony Ruprecht

Reference:

  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election


    2007 Result:


    * TONY RUPRECHT
    12,46741.82%
    PETER FERREIRA
    10,88036.49%
    FRANK DE JONG
    3,04710.22%
    ANTONIO GARCIA
    2,8059.41%
    DAVE MCKEE
    1910.64%
    GUSTAVO VALDEZ
    1570.53%
    NUNZIO VENUTO
    1520.51%
    ANNETTE KOURI
    1140.38%

    2003 Result (redistributed):

    1554355.52%
    204507.30%
    822329.37%


  •  


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    11 10 04 jw
    65.93.203.196
    It looks like it's going to be an NDP riding soon. Martins supports diesel trains (towing the party line) so that won't win her any votes and her Liberals also have a reputation for taking this riding for granted. The PC candidate is a no-show at most of the public debates - another placeholder candidate just like at the federal level with Theresa Rodriques. Green could do something here one of these days I hope!
    11 09 28 MF
    70.52.182.74
    It seems like the Liberals have given up in Davenport...they are nowhere to be seen. The riding is a sea of orange. If Schein doesn't have quite as many signs as Cash, the ratio of NDP to Liberal signs is just as great if not greater this time.
    11 09 24 jeff316
    69.196.170.65
    Schein has a lot of signs out, but no where near as many as Cash did - particularly in the NDP-unfriendly north end. Martins has almost no signs anywhere, but is a stronger candidate than Silva. This will be interesting and may come down to provincial trends on election day.
    11 09 22 Love Game
    66.203.207.68
    The NDP has most recently been polling provincially in this riding at over 50%. This should be called for the NDP.
    11 09 21 DL
    174.114.127.23
    This is 100% in the bag for the NDP. It went NDP federally by a 2-1 margin, there is no incumbent - the new Liberal candidate is very weak and low profile and is favoured by Rob Ford's puppet Cesar Palacio (which will lose her votes). The only ?? is how big the NDP margin will be.
    11 09 21 mikeb
    66.163.6.177
    A lot of momentum from the federal election coupled with a retired incumbent should help make this a pick up for the NDP. Jonah Schein has a lot of name recognition and did well against Cesar in the last municipal election. I have never seen as many NDP signs in the north end of this riding. That includes when Cash won it for the federal NDP.
    It will also be interesting to see who finishes 3rd this election.
    11 09 20 Double J
    173.34.183.231
    Davenport was a Tony Ruprecht riding, not a Liberal riding. With Ruprect gone, the Liberals can't hold this riding. The NDP know this seat is looking good as they bought a number of expensive billboards in Davenport.
    This is quite out of character for the NDP but they are all in on this seat and will win it.
    11 09 19 AD
    24.246.31.39
    Admittedly, I am close to the NDP. Here's why I think that they will win:
    1. The NDP numbers are overall much higher than their 2007 numbers in just about every poll.
    2. Liberals are the opposite of this, down from their 2007 numbers even in the polls where they are leading out of all the parties
    3. NDP are doing well in 416 (based off of Angus Reid's data)
    4. No Liberal incumbant
    I'm not convinced this race will be as close as everyone is making it out to be, either, but that might just be confidence. Either way, I predict an NDP win.
    11 09 13 MV
    99.240.184.7
    First of all, even through a part of this riding had an excellent score for Rob Ford, I believe this will be between the Liberals and the NDP.
    Even through the provincial NDP is not as strong and charismatic as the federal version which had given a massive swing there federally, I believe that they are targeting this seat strongly.
    And then people tend to forget that before 1999, some part of the riding were an NDP base for quite a long time.
    Personally, I am not an NDP supporter but I have seen the same trend in some Toronto ‘inner-city’ ridings which some of those are more NDP provincially than federally before the last federal election.
    11 08 19 DavenportLib
    70.26.84.165
    A big advantage for the NDP with Schein, having an early start on the campaigning. With Cash winning federally recently and there is no longer a elected incumbent. At this point, Schein has a better chance of winning. However at this moment the Davenport Liberal looks like will be nominating Cristina Martins which is a good Liberal candidate too. Right now this riding could still go Liberal. Martins VS. Schein!
    11 08 15 MFG
    99.233.68.153
    I live in Davenport and no, Tony Ruprecht was not well-liked in recent years. The high NDP vote last time was due to Ruprecht's weakness as much as anything. As a Liberal leaning voter, I was not prepared to vote for him based on his terrible record. However, now that he's gone, I'm more than prepared to put my X next to the new Liberal candidate, whomever that may be (assuming the party finds a decent candidate.) Jonah Schein is an okay candidate, but inherently beatable in this race. If the election polarizes between the McGuinty Liberals and the Hudak Tories, progressive voters will fall in behind the Liberals and this seat will easily stay in the Liberal fold. Regardless, it's definitely too close to call. Yes the NDP could win this, but only if the Liberals tanks across the province (which I'm not predicting.)
    11 08 05 seasaw
    99.224.215.171
    With veteran Tony Ruprecht gone, this riding's now a prime NDP target. Tony did not win by much the last time around, and with Liberal poll numbers being well below 2007 and even below 1999 and 1995 levels, and rising NDP numbers, unless things change drastically, we have to call this one for the NDP.
    11 08 02 Greenhorn
    66.203.195.105
    If the Liberals continue to fall this riding will fall with them. Ruprecht is not that well liked and has not played a big role in government. The NDP is faring well so far under Horwath and Davenport is a prime pickup in the current political climate.
    11 07 17 MF
    70.52.182.19
    Tony Ruprecht has become more of a liability than an asset for the Liberals, so his retirement doesn't do much to hurt their chances of holding on to the seat. Along with York South-Weston, Davenport should fall to the NDP on election day. They were just 1500 votes short last time, and now the McGuinty Liberals are far less popular than they were four years ago and the NDP under Andrea Horwath seems to already have a higher profile than the invisible Howard Hampton ever did. The orange wave federally should have some spillover effect as well. Andrew Cash just won a stunning victory in the federal election, beating Mario Silva by a 2-1 margin (I can't see Silva trying again this fall!) Jonah Schein is a good candidate for the NDP with strong community links.
    11 07 13 PM
    38.116.193.42
    With Ruprecht out it is anyone's race. Could this be a seat where the Green's make a break through? Let's not forget Frank De Jong as a strong candidate and repeat performer! The NDP candidate could not beat Palacio, even with a well organized campaign. Frankly, I thought Palacio was done, but he was re-elected. The Tories will never take this riding, and who knows about the Liberals as there appears to be no candidate on the horizon (blame Ruprecht for that too!).
    11 07 08
    76.64.49.161
    Tony Ruprecht has announced he is not running. He can count and he knows he was a gonner. Rats? Sinking Ships? many others funnily enough in marginal seats. Put Davenport in NDP column as sure thing.
    11 07 08 MJA
    76.74.206.111
    Tony Ruprecht is apparently retiring (http://www.citytv.com/toronto/citynews/news/local/article/141031--liberal-mpp-tony-ruprecht-won-t-seek-re-election), which splits this race wide open, and I think that the NDP has the advantage: their candidate is a known commodity from Toronto's recent municipal election, where he gave Cesar Palacio a run for his money in the (NDP-hostile) northern half of the riding.
    With the polls suggesting the Liberals in significant decline province-wide, Davenport--which only had 1500 votes separating the Liberals from the NDP last time around--is a prime NDP pickup, especially now that the federal NDP have demonstrated that this seat is winnable for the party.
    11 06 27 Doug
    173.33.194.2
    Are you guys kidding me. Anybody seen the Forum Research poll? Bye bye Tony, its been a slice. No more petitions on street name changes.
    11 06 13 GD
    174.119.67.105
    I think NDP candidate Jonah Schein is mobilizing online and reusing some of NDP MP Andrew Cash's campaign machinery or at least riding the same ‘orange wave’. Liberal incumbent MPP Tony Ruprecht I think is cooked this time around. I'm begging the Liberals to nudge him into retirement and run someone more competitive, someone with an online presence, someone more involved in the community, someone who won't be an ineffectual backbencher for 25+ years...
    11 06 11 A.S.
    99.233.218.204
    Uh, jeff316, when it comes to drastically different election dynamics, you're forgetting what *actually* happened in 2007: the hitherto ‘unsinkable’ Tony Ruprecht (he even pulverised Tony Silipo in '99!) shocked everyone (not least, New Democrats who'd grown inured to being regularly Ruprecht-whacked) by coming within a few points of being defeated by the NDP's Peter Ferreira. And that was *in spite of* the McGuinty incumbent-government strength, or Frank De Jong's home-riding candidacy having a hypothetical left-splitting effect--clearly, it seems, that with Cubagate and all, Ruprecht himself and his fabled machine had been jolted from electoral asset to liability. And for added perspective, Ferreira ran again federally in 2008 against Martin Silva, (yeah, the same guy who just got pulverized by Andrew Cash), and lost by three times his provincial margin--this in spite of Stephane Dion being no Dalton McGuinty. Sure, you can presently claim that Horwath is no Layton; but by that measure, neither, in 2007, was Howard Hampton. Not to say that a pickup's an absolute cinch--after all, Horwath (or, federally, Layton's Official Opposition) may still bomb by e-day. But you can't simply fall back like autopilot on Ruprecht's pre-2007 electoral record anymore. Things have changed.
    11 06 10 DL
    174.114.127.23
    Absolutely dead certain NDP pick up here. The NDP won this one federally by 10,000 votes on just about the most massive swing of the election. On top of that Ruprecht is just about the most embarrassingly weak Liberal MPP in the province. He literally makes Mario Silva look like a powerhouse. This is the lowest hanging fruit in the province for the NDP.
    11 05 26 jeff316
    69.165.140.179
    Yeah I gotta say I was wrong on my federal call here, although I maintain the Liberal prediction for the provincial election. The Ontario NDP is no federal NDP, Horwath is no Layton, and the election dynamics are drastically different.
    11 05 23 Mike Sloan
    173.33.15.125
    The NDP win federally is only significant because of the enormous margin of victory. If the NDP is going to gain in this election, this would surely be a targeted riding.
    11 05 05 InTheEast
    69.90.75.224
    @Jeff316 ... so the NDP can't win Davenport? This proves that even though a riding has always gone one way, doesn't mean voters can't change their minds. Now this riding is in play for the NDP, it will definetly depend on who the Dippers nominate but this will be a targeted riding. Jeff also fails to realise that pre-davenport the NDP held Dovercourt which made up 50%+ of this riding pre-1999. So their is NDP history here. NDP will target heavily those 4 ridings they captured federally (York South-Weston, Daveport, Scarb. SW & Scarb. Rouge River) TO is going to be a huge battleground
    11 05 02 Oafah
    76.67.9.250
    NDP gain here, easily. The only reason this riding will go Liberal federally is the same reason it will go NDP provincially - portuguese candidate, plain and simple.
    11 04 18 MJA
    76.74.193.141
    Look at the province-wide polls. The Liberals have dropped nearly 10% since their 2007 result, while the NDP appear to be holding steady or even growing. The NDP won't win this seat nearly so much as the Liberals will lose it.
    11 03 24 jeff316
    206.248.177.14
    The NDP really needs to just give this one a rest. NDPers always think they can win Davenport but they never will. If you can't beat guys like Cesar Palacio or Tony Ruprecht with stand-up candidates like Jonah Schein or Gord Perks or Rui Pires then there are some areas you just can't win. Here, the demographics just don't add up - it is neither a union hotbed nor an old-school Hamilton-esque working-class nor a downtown trendy lefty area nor a champagne socialist city riding. Davenport is a Liberal stronghold full of solidly middle-class, home-owning Portuguese and Italian families with a sprinkling wealthy Liberal pockets and a trickle of socially-liberal, fiscally-conservative urban professionals that aren't wealthy enough to live in the Annex and not left-wing or working-class enough to consider voting NDP.
    11 03 24 binriso
    142.167.166.13
    Going to revise my prediction and predict a full NDP gain here, with the Green leader running elsewhere they should lose some votes to the NDP mostly and the Liberals will lose a few votes to the PCs and NDP, pushing the PCs into 3rd and the NDP into 1st, it was only a 5 point margin last time and this would be an excellent springboard into trying to take the seat federally. It will be close but with the Liberals set to lose 5-10 percent province-wide they will likely lose here and York South Weston to the NDP in Toronto as well as very close races/potential losses to the PCs in Willowdale, Etobicoke Lakeshore and Eglinton Lawrence.
    11 02 24 Craig
    70.30.72.61
    Too close to call. Since the Liberal vote is likely to drop from 2007, that should be an opening for the NDP and alone would put them over the top. However, working against the NDP is that the PC's - who are dead in the water here as a 4th place party - should be making the province-wide gains. As a result, many NDP-leaning voters may be spooked back to the Liberals. Whichever way the wind blows province-wide should determine this riding.
    11 02 11 binriso
    156.34.209.159
    I think the NDP has a good chance of taking this riding, provincially and federally. Probably the closest race in Toronto.



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