Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:35:50

Constituency Profile


Navarro, Aleksandra

Nicholls, Rick

Sullivan, Holly

Watson, Paul

Pat Hoy


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:

    * PAT HOY

    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 10 04 J.O.
    EKOS Research says the smart money is on a Liberal majority and reports the Liberals now have a 10-point lead with just one day of campaigning remaining. The last two days of Nanos polling also shows Liberal support over 40% and trending upward. The senior and baby boomer vote that caused the Liberal collapse in the federal election is solid for McGuinty's Liberals. That makes it very difficult to see what was Pat Hoy's riding for 16 years suddenly flip to the Conservatives. Paul Watson has run an effective campaign and will keep this riding in the Liberal fold.
    11 10 02 seasaw
    I don't know where the previous poster got his info from, but the Forum Research poll last week showed the PC's with a solid 10 point lead. Yes, Pat Hoy did win by over 50% the last time, a lot had to do with his personal popularity, and at that time, the International plant in this riding ( now closed )was going strong. As for how can a riding that's voted in a Liberal by over 50% 2 elections in a row go PC ? Look at what happened in Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke in '03, that was a riding that had voted Liberal by 50-65% for 6 elections, when the incumbent retired, it went Tory in '03. The same thing'll happen here.
    11 10 02 A.S.
    Whatever the federal results or mud-ridden disarray of the local federal Grit machine, something just doesn't ring true about the provincial Liberals yielding this so handily already--after all, by being elected in 1995, Pat Hoy single-handedly bridged SW Ontario rural-Liberalism a la Nixon into the McGuinty era. In any case, I'd call it as a tight one in three directions; there's something oddly, hypnotically Horwathian, maybe at the expense of *both* Tories and Grits, about the Chatham-centric industrial/rust-belt undercurrent...
    11 09 26 J.O.
    Riding-by-riding poll results are showing this riding as a Liberal hold with Watson holding a 7-point lead over Nicholls and Navarro running a distant third. The retiring Pat Hoy won this riding with over 50% of the vote in the last two elections so for it to suddenly go Conservative would require a lot minds to change since 2007. Hoy was a solid constituency man and voters here may be looking for more of the same from Watson who has far deeper roots in the riding than his opponents. This appears to be one southwest riding that McGuinty can still count on.
    11 09 25 J.O.
    The press has been hard on both Nicholls and Navarro although the Chatham Daily News has not endorsed any candidate. The paper has praised Watson for attending debates unlike Nicholls and running a professional and classy campaign unlike Navarro. The Liberal vote would really have to plummet for the Conservatives to take this riding. Watson's experience as a municipal councillor gives him a distinct advantage over his opponents who are relatively unknown.
    11 09 20 TJ
    The Tories are riding high in Southwestern Ontario in published polling. Support in Chatham-Kent is one reason why. Tory pickup.
    11 09 20 Winger
    While I live in LKM I have worked in this riding for 25 years. Politics aside I only know one candidate well and that is Paul Watson. Paul is a very honest, decent and hardworking guy who would represent CKE well. Given that the other candidates are untested and relatively unknown I think Paul has a good chance to keep this riding liberal.
    11 09 18 DMG
    In the last two days, I have travelled throughout the counties of Kent and Essex. If one were to judge by lawn signs, the NDP will win the area around Wallaceburg, the rest of Kent seems evenly split between PC and Liberal. The County of Essex seems to be predominately PC (both the ridings of Essex and Chatham-Kent-Leamington).
    11 08 02 seasaw
    Liberals have no hope here, with the closure of the international plant and many job losses, it'll be hard for the Liberals to do well. Expect a Tory win with the NDP in second place, the Liberals should be a distant third.
    11 03 28 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    This is a provincial, not a federal election. The LPO has always done better than it's federal sister in rural Ontario.
    11 03 14 Adrian
    way too early to say, but Hoy continued a long line of Liberals since Jim McGuigan and previous. The Grits should hold the riding, with the long list of positives delivered to the riding since 2003 (RMP for farmers, clean energy, Full-Day kindergarten, family health teams...all of which the Conservatives oppose).
    11 03 07 Craig
    With Pat Hoy retiring and the Liberals very weak on rural issues, this should be very high on the PC target list and should be an easy pickup. This had long been HIS seat, not a Liberal seat, and he was always to the right of the party, so even though he always won with solid margins, that probably doesn't matter now. Federally this is solidly Conservative these days and Liberal histories don't seem to matter these days when rural seats have almost universally gone to the right.

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