Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:35:50

Constituency Profile


Bankole, Atinuke

Dettweiler, Allan R.

Leone, Rob

Malette, Jacques

McGarry, Kathryn

Ross, Robert

Gerry Martiniuk


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 10 05 DTC
    I don't even know who is running here, but I say the PCs will win. Why Cambridge Memorial Hospital and eight years of Liberal red tape and promises.
    11 10 02 A.S.
    Well...if Cambridge is Liberal-winnable at all, it's with the present candidate, who did well against Martiniuk in '07 and could well have won had Martiniuk not run that year. Besides, Cambridge has a recent history of being *left*-winnable, albeit at the NDP end, so it isn't exactly cut-and-dried Tory-for-life--though yes, the cards for uniting the left under the Liberals don't look as promising now (and *especially* in an NDP-history seat like Cambridge) as they did in '07. Indeed, unless it's grandfathered-in from when Hudak had a solid lead in the polls, the lack of buzz over an open and potentially competitive seat like Cambridge is puzzling--for that reason, I'd rather allow for a surprise result, or at least a far shallower Tory victory than anticipated...
    11 10 01 seasaw
    Read Northern Dad's comment. Is he a stand up comic by any chance ? If he is he should use it in a routine here in Cambridge, it'll get lots of laughs. The last time a Liberal won here the premier was a man named Mitchell Hepburn and Hitler had not invaded Poland yet. They didn't win it when they won landslides and they're going to win it now when their best hope is a minority. Get serious.
    11 09 25 Stevo
    Cambridge is like a west-of-Toronto version of Oshawa, except more right-leaning than the latter. It will stay in Conservative hands for the foreseeable future.
    11 09 11 jeff316
    The fact that Martiniuk won by only 3 percent last time means nothing to this race. Under the cloud of bad press for Martiniuk's legislature no-shows and Tory's uber-unpopular religious school funding platform render previous results meaningless in Cambridge, as well as in many ridings across the province.
    11 08 09 NorthernDad
    I think the simple fact that Martiniuk barely won by 3k last time, and with the Liberals campaigning hard makes this one winnable for McGuinty. PC candidates that failed to win the nomination complained publicly that Leone doesn't even live here, and that he was just visiting speaks volumes about the dissent in their ranks. Rob doesn't have what it takes, since he's looking to kill jobs and close and the hospital in Cambridge. He's in for a helluva fight, but Kathryn McGarry will win this one.
    11 07 19 R.O.
    The math from 07 and fact Gerry Martiniuk retiring should give the liberals a chance here but i think after 8 years of Mcguinty voters are looking for something new. the new ontario pc candidate Rob Leone should be able to hold this riding as cambridge is becoming a fairly reliable conservative area.
    11 04 19 Jack
    Rob Leone was just nominated as the local PC candidate. He is a professor at Wilfird Laurier University for political science, he both figuratively and literally wrote the book on political policy. Strong candidate and safe PC riding.
    11 02 17 seasaw
    Well, Gerry Martiniuk is retiring, but it should make little difference, the riding's not about to change colours. It has been a total Liberal wasteland in the past. The Liberals didn't even win here during their landlide of '87 with their star candidate, popular mayor, Claudette Millar. The only time the Tories have lost here were in '87 and '90 and it was to the NDP, during two of their worst defeats, that's not likely to happen now. PC hold.
    11 02 11 binriso
    Historically very strong for both the NDP and PCs, though it should be a fairly easy win this time for the new candidate of the PCs. I could see the NDP and Greens gaining a bit at the expense of the Liberals and the PCs getting about the same as last time.

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