Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011

Windsor West

Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:35:50

Constituency Profile


Branch, Todd

Charif, Helmi

Durocher, Chad

Piruzza, Teresa

Hon Sandra Pupatello


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 10 04 Isa
    I call it Liberal. Helmi Charif has made too many goofs and really lost some credibility with his poverty comments. Pretty telling that Horwath was just in Essex and skipped a stop in Windsor, I think it's a sign that she's given up on the seat. The Muslim community seems to be strongly supporting the Liberal candidate, instead of Helmi. Liberal Piruzza signs are throughout the riding. I call it Liberal, but definitely not a landslide.
    11 10 04 AD
    With most polls having the LPO pretty high, and even the most recent EKOS poll showing an LPO lead, I predict a hold for the Liberals, with or without an incumbent. I just don't see the 25% margin being toppled.
    11 10 04 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Well said CB (Re: Windsor West being an incumbent riding and whoever wins it will have it as long as they want)! We couldn't agree with you more as we see this with respect to all levels of government in Windsor. Where we disagree is your assertion that Windsor is becoming more Conservative. We'd argue that it's not any real demographic shift but rather a collection of effects on a larger stadge which is being seen. Neverthe less, since it is an open seat it is winnable for almost anyone but with the strong showing for the NDP in the polls it's hard not to see them winning this one.
    11 10 04 C B
    Woah! Hold on a second! As a life-long Windsor West resident, let me explain how this riding works to the many on here who are posting without living in the riding. Windsor West is NOT a Liberal riding. Windsor West is NOT an NDP riding. It is an INCUMBENT riding. Rest assured, whoever wins this election will win increasing majorities from now on. This race is ANYONE'S. In the last ten years, there has been a slow movement away from the Liberals and NDP to the Con/PC's in Windsor. If anyone had told me the Conservatives would get nearly 35% in the city of Windsor in both ridings in May, I might have argued a bit with them. There was a reason Hudak was aggressively courting Mayor Francis to run for the PC's in Windsor West...because it is potentially winnable if there is no incumbent. We all know how that one played out, the mayor politely declined. My point to all of this is this...this could potentially be a very close three way race that no one is expecting. At the end of the day, I would be shocked if the PC's won it. However, this city has shunned organized labour (as evidenced in the reelection of Mayor Francis) and the Liberals (federally, granted) in the not too distant past. Lets see what happens Thursday. The only thing I am guaranteeing is that whoever wins it can have it for as long as they want.
    11 10 03 Pete B.
    NDP - seriously? The Liberals are stalling a powerplant to ensure reelection for Mississauga South - does anyone think they would just stand by and let this important seat go. Windsor is in a rut and the Liberals green jobs plan is still perceived as the best option there. It won't be even close.
    11 10 02 C B
    And as for the ‘positive press’ for the NDP candidate...there was another scandal surrounding Charif in the Windsor Star the other day. I am really starting to think this isn't a lock for the NDP and the moderators on this site should reconsider their decision...
    11 10 02 J.O.
    Charif's campaign took a step backwards after the Windsor Star revealed that he stated that Conservative and Liberal governments would starve Canadian children. Charif posted a link on his Facebook page to a video showing children starving in Uganda and included his disturbing comment which has generated plenty of negative press for the NDP candidate. In the article, a University of Windsor political scientist confirms that in the polls she's seen, Charif is trailing Piruzza and it would be an understatement to suggest that this scandal is a setback for him. Voters in this riding are not ready to elect a candidate making such outrageous claims.
    11 10 02 C B
    Strange. Driving through the riding today makes me question all of those here who are saying that the NDP is going to win. Do you folks really live in Windsor West? If so, are you merely NDP supporters trying to flood this website? I was actually very surprised to see in South Windsor very few NDP signs. What a change from the federal election in May, but I actually saw an incredible amount of PC signs. I can't speak for the rest of the riding, and I'm not saying that that means the PC's are going to win. I'm just saying that what I am seeing on the street is not correlating with the posters here...
    11 09 30 James M.
    On the ground floor here and the word on the street is that this riding is going NDP. The Liberal and Conservative candidates are too unknown and the NDP candidate has hit a certain positive tone with the constituents. So far as I am hearing/seeing, this is the NDP's to lose.
    11 09 26 J.O.
    When Hudak came to Windsor and told everyone he would kill the new green energy jobs, the Liberal stock went up. Even the right-wing leaning Windsor Star is writing op-ed pieces supporting McGuinty's job creation plans here. A vote for the NDP does not protect those jobs and in a city that is looking for new investment, the Liberals provide hope. Expect this riding to remain red.
    11 09 20 TJ
    Helmi Charif signs everywhere. No Liberal incumbent. Clear NDP victory.
    11 09 15 A.S.
    Just as Dwight Duncan's incumbency shouldn't be assumed as a guarantee of his invulnerability in Windsor-Tecumseh, Sandra Pupatello's retirement shouldn't be assumed as a guarantee of Liberal vulnerability in Windsor West. Though coming off everything federal, Windsor West definitely gets the short end of the stick, now--it's all a matter of ‘how short is too short’, I suppose.
    11 09 13 Canadian Election Atlas
    Without a Liberal incumbent, this is a low hanging fruit for the NDP. We saw the riding being long held by Herb Gray on the federal level until he resigned, and the seat went NDP. Ever since it has been a safe NDP riding. No reason to believe the Liberals will win this, except for Charif's lack of name recognition.
    11 09 10 MHB
    Helmi is ahead right now but this will still be a close one. The Tory vote in Widsor is stronger than normal; unless Hudak collapses this should carve off enough blue Lib votes to produce an NDP victory here.
    11 09 09 Stevo
    Pupatello's retirement has paved the way for an NDP victory in this heavily unionized riding, much as Herb Gray's retirement from federal politics in 2002 led to largely uncontested NDP domination here federally.
    11 07 22 robert
    Dont know too much about Charif but i would have to say this is now an NDP victory. With Sandra stepping down (seeing the writing on the wall perhaps but will never admit this) this has to be at the top of the Central NDP wish / hit list. Can imagine lots of resources being sent to this riding for the NDP.
    11 07 20 jeff316
    Pupatello retires with little advance notice to the party, and what does the NDP go and do? Holds an open and democratic nomination and ends up with a very sub-par candidate. A win for democracy, but a loss for the NDP.
    11 07 19 R.O.
    Its unlikely the ndp get shut out of Southwestern ontario this year , i'd say this riding is one of there best chances to win a seat . although they could have 2-3 seats in this part of province by end of election. without Sandra Pupatello i can't really see the liberals holding this riding and is an ndp pickup unless things improve for the liberals and even if they do this riding could still easily go ndp.
    11 06 14 seasaw
    With the retirement of Sandra Pupatello, this becomes an open seat. Dalton McGuinty now has the same approval rating as Bob Rae did in '95. Windsor area has been hit hard by McGuinty's policies. All this, and the fact that a big chunk of this riding was held by the NDP prior to '95, and the NDP momentum, makes it a pick up for the NDP.
    11 06 11 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Sandra's packing it in! We think this just ended up on the NDP hit list.
    11 03 07 Craig
    Like next door in Windsor-Tecumseh, a strong Liberal cabinet minister here (Sandra Pupatello) prevents the NDP from making a serious run at doubling down on their federal success. Such is especially true if the PC's (who are a distant third here) look to be headed to victory at Queen's Park, strategic voting might come into play. When this seat opens up, it might become winnable for the NDP.

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