Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:35:50

Constituency Profile


de Verteuil, Robert

Dominato, Dan

Duncan, Dwight

Levesque, Justin

McAvoy, Andrew

Hon Dwight Duncan


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 09 20 TJ
    Duncan's campaign office is unusually slow, the 2 same cars are parked at the office all of the time, and the normal sea of red signs is missing this campaign. NDP signs are going up everywhere (except the million dollar homes that the other poster talked about) and Duncan is missing in action. NDP pickup.
    11 09 18 Art
    Duncan has dumped multiple tens of millions of bux into his riding in the last while; not sure he can hold out. Windsor is hurting so much. Across the river the folks of Windsor can see that a de-industrialized future results in disappearing neighbourhoods, leveled to rubble and weeds so that the banks (who took over the abondoned mortgages) have lower property taxes. McGuinty/Duncan's green jobs, as in the UK, will mean that for every green job about 4 other jobs will be lost. Doubtful that Duncan will be able to hold on to his red lifejacket. Close, but NDP.
    11 09 15 Mike D
    I have to disagree with the previous postings. This is going to be quite interesting. Despite the recent federal victory, the NDP seems to be going nowhere right now, with no labour support this time out (the Labour Council endorsed Duncan). There's little evidence of organization or visibility. Conversely, the PC campaign is also low profile but apparently effective. On Riverside Drive and through Olde Riverside, East Riverside, Tecumseh, and St. Clair Beach, the PC vote is definitely up as evidenced by the sign war. Duncan is getting smoked in these former strongholds of his, with relatively few signs across the riding, a sharp contrast to 2007. His voters are at risk of staying home this time.
    Looking forward to the next few weeks. We may see an upset here.
    11 09 13 A.S.
    The only reason why this is deemed ‘safer’ for the Liberals than Windsor West is because the incumbent--and not just any incumbent, but Dwight Duncan--is running again. But behind that Lib-red camoflauge, *this* is where the illustrious provincial NDP history truly lies, culminating in Dave Cooke's long, bombproof run in the legislature. On those grounds, one wonders whether the claims to Duncan's safety are smoke and mirrors, esp. given how the once-regnant federal Grits have sagged to a dismal third place in Windsor-Essex----though the 2007 results suggest more of a fed-prov split-ticket impulse among Windsorites. In any case, for potential Portillo moments, watch Dwight Duncan more closely than a lot of pundits are prepared to do...
    11 03 07 Craig
    While the NDP probably will be competitive here, Dwight Duncan is too strong of a candidate to overcome. He has not been popular province-wide as a cabinet minister, but he has been quite popular in Windsor-Tecumseh. Despite the fact the PC's have no chance here, strategic voting by would-be-NDP voters may also come into play. When Duncan steps aside though, then it might be ripe for the picking. Probably not this time.

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