Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:20:30

Constituency Profile


Agovino, Vince

Brown, Alexander

Brown, Amy

Vettese, Michael

Zimmer, David

David Zimmer


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



    11 10 04 Marco Ricci
    Vince Agovino's involvement in the PC's ‘homophobic’ controversy in the final days of the campaign probably does not help him here. It was probably already leaning towards David Zimmer anyway, but voters turned off by the PC brochures on gays may turn to Zimmer in larger numbers now.
    11 09 29 MF
    Definitely a Liberal hold. David Zimmer isn't exactly high-profile, but his current opponent lacks David Shiner's profile. Not to mention this is generally a Liberal-leaning riding, and that Hudak's anti-’foreign worker’ does not play in a multicultural riding like Willowdale.
    11 09 29 Ken
    I went to an all candidates meeting last night -- Mr.Agostino decided not to turn up. It came out that he hasn't attended any all-candidates meeting. I've lived in this riding for 35 years and this is the first time this has happened to my knowledge. My point: anyone who ignores voters who make the effort to come out to a meeting isn't going to win: he'll turn off too many people, like me!
    11 09 26 J.O.
    It's hard to imagine Zimmer could lose this riding when polls are showing the Conservatives are likely to be shut-out of the entire 416. They are running third in Toronto and the ‘foreigners’ comment made by Hudak will help seal his candidate's fate here.
    11 09 26
    It won't go NDP. Too many headwinds for a candidate not known in the riding at all. As for the sign thing, depends on where in the riding. And, more importantly, MHF won the sign war federally.
    11 09 21 Andrew Drummond
    I work in this riding (though I live in the suburbs) and I have been driving through it for years. In the past, the sign ‘war’ was a strictly LIB-PC fight. However, driving through the riding, I see mainly PC signs, but a crazy increase in NDP signs, particularly on houses that used to support Zimmer/Hall-Findlay.
    This may just mean that the PCs have the riding locked up, but it certainly means that Zimmer is in serious trouble here.
    11 09 19 AD
    I think this should be a Liberal hold. The PC lead seems to be wittling down a bit thus far in the campaign. If the trend continues, I don't see how the incumbent won't be able to hold on to his seat. On the other hand, this could become a two or three-way race so I can see how it may end up close. Regardless, I say Liberal win.
    11 09 17 A.S.
    Re the ?no Ford Nation in this riding? claim; well, technically, there is, or at least was, since Ford won here by over 50%--then again, Ford's current disapproval ratings are particularly astronomical in the ward of '07 PC candidate David Shiner. Difficult to tell what's happening here--Willowsale was always overrated as a provincial PC stronghold, benefiting more from a pattern of strong PC candidacy and weak Liberal candidacy (Zimmer not excepted, at least in terms of 2003 expectations). Now, Zimmer vs Agovino seems like a rather...routine sort of race. I suppose it'll go according to whatever pattern the 416 dictates--though who knows what future patterns the development and evolution of the Yonge and Sheppard condo/apartment corridors will generate. (That's where a higher Smitherman-over-Ford quotient evidenced itself in the mayoral race, after all.)
    11 09 13 Stevo
    Willowdale was once considered a bellwether, but the groups that oscillate between Libs and PC (middle-class anglo Caucasians, Chinese, and Jews), have declined here a bit and more reliably Liberal demographics have developed. It's still a swing riding (as we saw in this year's federal election), but not quite as easy for the PCs to snatch away as it would have been in the Harris years. This is too close to call.
    11 09 12 Smarty
    I think it is a toss up at this point.
    I sent emails to Zimmer, McGuinty, Hudak and Vince over a week ago.
    All were too busy to answer.
    Martha What's her name lost because of complacency.
    No campaign to contact the voters.
    Zimmer has learned.
    It looks like this page is sponsored by Vince.
    I don't know if that will get him votes.
    11 09 08 foolmelon
    I was a decided Tory voter a month ago.  Now I am undecided.  A month ago I had telephone townhall meeting with Vince, Tim Hudak etc.  Immediate after the meeting I sent an email to Vince to raise my question.  No reply so far.
    11 08 31 Not Non-Partisan
    Nobody but nobody thought the Martha Whats-Her-Name was going to get clobbered here in the May Running-of-the-Lizards but clearly the good people of Willowdale see a trend and jump on board. Tory win here.
    11 03 13 OgtheDim
    The Tory candidate, Vince Agovino, doesn't have any roots in this riding. He grew up to the west and all his charity work is not done here. Name recognition, if any, is going to go to Zimmer. Its been a long time since a Tory won in this riding and the Harris remembrances are long. That, and I would discount any coat tails from Rob Ford - there is no Ford Nation in this riding.
    Hydro rates and education will be the reasons why people chose a person here.
    11 02 25 seasaw
    David Zimmer's low profile, and the current OLP poll numbers, makes this riding a pick up for the Tories. That is of course, the way things are right now, things may change come election time but until then we have to go by what we see now.

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