Election Prediction Project
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United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

South Antrim


Prediction Changed
2010-05-07 09:52:09
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland
Alan Lawther
Traditional Unionist Voice
Mel Lucas
Social Democratic & Labour Party
Michelle Byrne
Sinn Féin
Mitchel McLaughlin
Ulster Conservatives and Unionists
Reg Empey
Democratic Unionist Party
William McCrea

Incumbent:
Rev Dr William McCrea
South Antrim (100 %)

Electorate:
Current
56594
2005
66931

Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus
4706
11059
14507
4407
Minor
Parties
3278

 


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10 04 27 ridingbyriding
173.32.33.116
In the NI Leader's debate, it was suggested that Empey, if he won (and if the Tories won nationally) could be Chancellor. I think people in NI like the idea of having a cabinet minister from NI. The UUP is a favourite here.
10 04 18 ridingbyriding
198.96.35.219
Watson has announced he is not standing after all, and plans to endorse the UUP and Empey (who is running here). This could be enough of a boost to the UUP to allow them to win. Then again, it might not be.
10 04 07 ridingbyriding
198.96.35.219
This seat is a mess.
The DUP hold it at the moment, but they have been taking a beating recently due to Robinson's mis-steps. The UUP, or the UCUNF rather, would normally have a chance to steal here, but with the TUV on the right, there are splits. With 25,000 unionist votes, and 9,000 nationalist votes, even a three way unionist split would be enough to win.
The problem however is that of Mr.Adrian Watson, the former UCUNF candidate here. Watson recently has gotten in some trouble for his stances on gay rights, and the Tories have decided they do not want to be affiliated with him. Chances are he will run as an independent. This makes for a potential 4 way split of the Unionist vote. Sinn Fein on the other hand has been doing very well indeed, while the SDLP has, how shall we say, not been hot. Mathematically, it is possible for SF to steal the seat, but in all likelihood what will happen here is the seat will not change hands.
DUP hold.



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