Election Prediction Project

United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Belfast South

Prediction Changed
2010-05-06 22:15:16

Constituency Profile

Green Party
Adam McGibbon
Social Democratic & Labour Party
Alasdair McDonnell
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland
Anna Lo
Democratic Unionist Party
Jimmy Spratt
Ulster Conservatives and Unionists
Paula Bradshaw

Dr Alasdair McDonnell
Belfast South (100 %)


Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus


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10 05 04 Chris
This is the sort of middle class area where the Alliance Party really ought to be looking to win.
10 04 20 ridingbyriding
SF has withdrawn their candidate here http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/election_2010/northern_ireland/8632730.stm
The SDLP will easily hold on here as a result.
10 04 06 Ryan57
There are a number of reasons why I think the DUP will win here.
Firstly the boundaries of this constituency have changed slightly since 2005. The constituency is slightly more protestant now than before, and analysis of this by Nicholas White shows the margin by which McDonnel won last time to have fallen to a mere 300 votes.
Secondly, the DUP candidate has a track record here, he is a standing MLA for the constitiuency at Stormont, and a Castlereagh Councillor, which covers approximatley half of South Belfast. The UUC candidate, Paula Bradshaw is something of a 'phantom' candidate here who has suddenly shot up out of no where with no record in office, and this may cause some otherwise UUP voters to go DUP, along with the fact many grass roots unionists are not satisfied with the Conservative tie up.
Thirdly, and finally, contrary to popular belief, at present the TUV are not standing here as they have considered this constituency a marginal seat, and if they were to stand here, and cost another unionist candidate the seat over a couple of thousand votes, they could risk any further growth here. Even so, South Belfast is not a constituency known for this type of Radical Unionism.
Therefore I see no reason why the DUP can't prevail here.
10 03 23 S
Marginal seat. SDLP slight favourites to hold on, due to a relatively even split between DUP and UUP.
09 10 19 Boy Waffle
I think that the UUP have a better chance than the DUP in this constituency.
Firstly, the UUP's electoral alliance with the Conservatives, if it is to mean anything at all, should give them a financial advantage; and they'd be better off spending whatever extra money they get in ‘open seats’ rather than trying to knock off incumbent DUP MPs. [From a unionist point of view, Belfast South as close to an ‘open seat’ as makes no difference.]
Secondly, the DUP is going to be bleeding votes to the new TUV party, which is even further to the right. It looks like the TUVP stole just over two-fifths of the DUP vote in the recent Euro elections; it'll get less in a Westminster election, but still enough to make an impact here.
09 06 04 Jason Liverpool
Yeah, with McDonnell coming in on the vote split last time I find it pretty unlikely that he would be able to hold onto this seat. The DUP will Likely take this one back into the unionist fold.
09 03 09 Predictor
This seats was held by the Ulster Unionist not all that long ago, and the combined Pro-union vote were consistently higher. If the DUP can get their act together, they can steal most of the UU vote and pull an upset.

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