Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Cardiff South and Penarth


Prediction Changed
2010-05-06 23:09:09
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Labour Party
Alun Michael
Christian Party
Clive Bate
Liberal Democrats
Dominic Hannigan
Plaid Cymru
Farida Aslam
Independent
George Burke
Green Party
Matthew Townsend
Communist Party of Britain
Rob Griffiths
Conservative Party
Simon Hoare
UK Independence Party
Simon Zeigler

Incumbent:
Rt Hon Alun Michael
Cardiff South & Penarth (100 %)
John Smith
Vale of Glamorgan (4.8 %)

Electorate:
Current
67855
2005
68996

Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus
18110
9350
7817
2057
Other
1942

 


Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

10 04 24 Former resident
70.29.18.217
A big Labour margin last time, but the incumbent is standing again and had to repay over 19,000 pounds in the expense scandal. His saving grace may be that the LDs were 3rd and not 2nd last time.
Ladbrokes: Lab 4/11; Con 11/4; LD 5/1.
Will depend on how the numbers move closer to election day.
Wales On-Line:
Life-long Labour voters shopping around this time
Apr 23 2010 by Sam Malone, South Wales Echo
IT has been the working class core of a safe Labour seat for 65 years… but Cleggmania has even hit Splott Market.
Voters browsing the stalls had been enthralled by the performance of the Liberal Democrat leader in the first leaders’ debate.
Robin Akbar, 63, of Janet Street, Splott, used to vote Labour because of its working class background but is now looking to change to another party because of its foreign policy.
‘I would vote for Plaid because they are the only ones who want to withdraw from Afghanistan, and if they do solve the foreign policy issue then perhaps we wouldn’t have any friction between Muslims in this country.
‘But they don’t really stand a chance here so I’m looking interestedly at the Lib Dems, especially after the TV debate – it was one of those historic moments that changes things and I now think the Lib Dems have a chance.
‘I’ve since had a look at their manifesto and I like the look of their approach to Europe and to the Trident issue. Small countries like ours do well in Europe and it’s worth supporting.’
The Tories, who have support in leafier areas like Penarth, Rumney and Old St Mellons, have historically been the main challengers in what is Labour’s strongest Cardiff seat, formerly represented by Prime Minister Jim Callaghan, which would need an 11% swing to turn blue but a larger 13% swing to turn Lib Dem yellow.
The Lib Dems have been successful in council elections, winning councillors in traditionally Labour areas like Splott, St Mellons and Trowbridge, Butetown and Grangetown.
But the party’s popularity has taken a hit in the eastern areas of the city over the plan developed by the Lib-Dem-led city council to build a new school on parkland.
On Sunday in Splott, Sheila Evans, 75, of Coleridge Avenue, Penarth, was another life-long Labour voter intent on giving her vote to the Lib Dems.
‘I’ve always voted Alun Michael but not this year. It’s something I’ve grown up with and to be honest I’m fed up with all the empty promises,’ she said.
The former hospital receptionist says she wants an MP that supports the elderly and who can inject new vitality into the area but, while she is keen on Plaid Cymru’s strategies, she is also considering the Liberal Democrats.
‘Nick Clegg has been coming over very well on TV and I’m a lot more aware of his party than I have been before and I think it’s time for a change,’ she said.
While for Ezra Linley, 31, of Courtney Road, Splott, electoral reform is top of the agenda.
‘This time I’m probably going to vote Lib Dem,’ he said.
‘The main issue for me is a party which supports proportional representation, particularly at this time when there’s a very strong chance of a hung parliament.’
Other candidates standing in Cardiff South and Penarth are George Burke, Independent, Clive Bate, Christian Party, Rob Griffiths, Communist Party of Britain, Matthew Townsend, Green and Simon Ziegler, UKIP.



Navigate to UK 2009/10 Home | Wales Index | Submission Index

United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
© Milton Chan, 1999-2009 - Email Webmaster