Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Cardiff Central


Prediction Changed
2010-05-06 23:05:45
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Independent
Alun Mathias
Plaid Cymru
Chris Williams
Labour Party
Jenny Rathbone
Liberal Democrats
Jenny Willott
Conservative Party
Karen Robson
Official Monster Raving Loony Party
Mark Beech aka 'The Good Knight Sir Nosda'
Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition
Ross Saunders
Green Party
Sam Coates
UK Independence Party
Susan Davies

Incumbent:
Jenny Willott
Cardiff Central (100 %)

Electorate:
Current
60864
2005
61002

Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus
12398
3338
17990
1271
Other
1133

 


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10 04 08 Matthew Dixon
91.125.27.90
For each of the past two elections, the Liberal Democrats have seen an 8% swing to them from Labour. Conservatives and Plaid don't stand a chance, and Labour nationally are going to fall. There's a large student population and they will be back at university at this time - and thus will be voting in this constituency. Also, the Liberal Democrats (who hold the Assembly seat and the largest proportion of the council and have kept local people up to date with what they're doing. All in all, this is a foregone conclusion of a seat



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