Election Prediction Project

United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Perth and North Perthshire

Prediction Changed
2010-05-06 23:00:08

Constituency Profile

Douglas Taylor
Labour Party
Jamie Glackin
Scottish National Party
Pete Wishart
Liberal Democrats
Peter Barrett
Conservative Party
Peter Lyburn

Pete Wishart
Perth & North Perthshire (100 %)


Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus


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10 05 03 ridingbyriding
Upon further research in the polls, it seems the Conservatives are sitting on 17% in Scotland while the SNP is on 24%. With numbers like that, the SNP will hold on to seats like this one.
10 04 27 ridingbyriding
This whole part of Scotland was, at one time, very strongly Conservative. It supported Thatcher in droves. The problem is that in the modern era, this is the base of SNP support. There will be an epic battle in this seat that will symbolize the entire region itself. Should the Tories take it, they can ?return? to the stage in Scotland. Should the SNP hold on, they may serve as a permanent block to the Tories in Scotland.
I honestly don't know which party will win. If I had to pick, I guess I'd say Tory. The SNP won't do as well in Westminster as they do in Holyrood
10 04 27 Boy Waffle
One of my aunts lives in this constituency: it's a very ?Countryside Alliance? sort of place, where Scottish Parliament bans on fox-hunting (2002) and docking (2006) are deeply resented. Consequently, there's been much disappointment that the SNP government in Holyrood has not done more on ?rural issues?. Peter Lyburn seems like a strong candidate too.
10 04 09 BBC Andrew Black
BBC Andrew Black identified this as a battleground seat.
‘Nicholas Fairbairn held Perth and Kinross for two decades for the Conservatives until his death in 1995. The resulting by-election was won by the SNP's Roseanna Cunningham, who increased her majority in 1997. Her successor, Annabelle Ewing, held the seat by 48 in 2001. Boundary changes in 2005 saw the creation of the new Perth and North Perthshire seat. Pete Wishart (of Runrig fame) was selected to fight the seat for the SNP and he was elected to Westminster with a majority of 1,521.’

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