Election Prediction Project

United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Glasgow North East

Prediction Changed
2010-05-06 23:09:09

Constituency Profile

Scottish National Party
Billy McAllister
Liberal Democrats
Eileen Baxendale
Solidarity - Scotland's Socialist Movement
Graham Campbell
Socialist Labour Party
Jim Berrington
Scottish Socialist Party
Kevin McVey
Conservative Party
Ruth Davidson
British National Party
Walter Hamiliton
Labour Party
Willie Bain

Willie Bain
Glasgow North East (100 %)


Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus


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09 10 19 Boy Waffle
Um, no-one seems to have noticed, but... Michael Martin resigned the very day after the previous post (and has since been appointed to the HoL). There is a by-election being held here on November 12, and I am very curious to see what happens then.
09 10 15 J.Mc.
Martin has resigned his seat. However, this riding and its predecessors have gone Labour by wide margins since the 1930's. Labour hold.
09 05 19 Former Politician
The Speaker has just resigned over his expenses... New speaker to be elected today.
I think Martin keeps his seat regardless of his transgressions. You dont remain an MP uninterrupted for 30 years by doing nothing for the constituency and playing referee for 9 years.
09 03 16 Ben
It is by no means guaranteed that Speaker Martin will hold his seat. He's been the subject of a lot of controversy lately which has substantially diminished his stature as Speaker: scandals of corruption, partisan bias, and of course his involvement in the arrest of Damian Green. There was even talk, for a while, that Labour would kick him out and replace him with the Lib Dems' Ming Campbell.
That last has not materialized, and at this point it is likely that Martin will go into the next election as Speaker. The Conservatives and Lib Dems may break the longstanding tradition of not opposing the Speaker, however, and the SNP in any case has never respected such traditions. If the SNP is Martin's primary opposition, I do not think it completely out of the realm of possibility that he will be defeated by an SNP protest vote. Obviously, the SNP is normally very weak in this part of Glasgow, so it's a long shot. But Martin is not completely safe.
09 03 09 Predictor
Without a Conservative or Liberal Democrat challenging, Speaker Michael Martin should handily win this one. Even if he *weren't* Speaker, this'd be an ace in the Labour hole.

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