Election Prediction Project

United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Glasgow North

Prediction Changed
2010-05-06 22:03:02

Constituency Profile

Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition
Angela McCormick
Labour Party
Ann McKechin
Conservative Party
Erin Boyle
Liberal Democrats
Katy Gordon
Scottish Green Party
Martin Bartos
Scottish National Party
Patrick Grady
British National Party
Thomas Main

Ann McKechin
Glasgow North (100 %)


Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus


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10 05 05 Former resident
Guardian reporting a potential Lib Dem gain here. Nick Clegg visited yesterday.

Guardian May 5th, 2010
The Scottish Labour party is getting jittery about losing more seats than expected tomorrow, with the Lib Dems, Tories and nationalists now closing in on at least five key seats across central Scotland.
Party sources and senior figures, including Jim Murphy, the Scottish secretary, admit the race is far tighter than expected in seats once regarded as safe, even though Scotland-wide Labour's poll ratings are holding firm.
Anxieties are mounting that the Lib Dems will grab their first Glasgow seat for nearly a century, in Glasgow North, unseating the low-profile junior Scotland minister, Ann McKechin, who is defending a 3,338-vote majority.
The seat was on Nick Clegg's vote-rallying cross-country tour yesterday evening, and senior Labour figures have let it be known they estimate the Lib Dems have a 1,000-vote lead over Labour. Clegg's visit ‘energised’ party activists.
Apparently the last Glaswegian Liberal MP – excluded Roy Jenkins's victory for the SDP in Glasgow Hillhead in 1982 – was Tony Benn's grandfather, Daniel Turner Holmes, in 1911 in Glasgow Govan.
Murphy is fighting a reinvigorated Tory campaign in his nominally safe seat of East Renfrewshire, the constituency visited by David Cameron on the Tory leader's ‘through the night’ campaign tour of UK target seats.
Murphy is defending a 6,657-vote majority and was previously very confident he would retain it, but he told the BBC today that the contest there was ‘too close to call’. This raises the unpalatable prospect for Labour of both its Scottish ministers being unseated.
Elsewhere, the Lib Dems are clear favourites to win Edinburgh North & Leith from Labour's Mark Lazarowicz, a former council leader, and Edinburgh South, which was held by the former trade minister Nigel Griffiths until his retirement from politics earlier this year.
The latest two polls in Scotland, both by YouGov for the Scotsman and PoliticsHome, put Labour a clear first at 37%, with the SNP second on 21% or 25%, the Lib Dems third on 22% in both polls, and the Tories now trailing last on either 14% or 17% depending on the poll.
Labour is still confident it will win back two seats lost at byelections since 2005: Dunfermline and West Fife, taken by the Lib Dems in 2006, and Glasgow East, won by the SNP in 2008.
Its fears that Aberdeen South could fall to the Lib Dems have apparently subsided, while the highly marginal Ochil and South Perthshire and Stirling remain Labour seats to watch.
These figures suggest the SNP can win the prize seat of Dundee West from Labour's Jim McGovern, completing the nationalists' control of this prize city and cementing the notion of an east coast nationalist arc from Tayside through to Moray.
10 04 30 Laird of Camster
Katy Gordon could be the surprising winner here in Glasgow North. The LibDems came close last time and given the Nick Clegg effect they will win this seat this time, albeit with a wafer-thin majority.
10 04 14 JFBreton
Relatively safe seat for the Labour. Best results to be expected from other parties, especially the SNP, but not enough to win.

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