Election Prediction Project

United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

East Renfrewshire

Prediction Changed
2010-05-06 23:09:09

Constituency Profile

UK Independence Party
Donald Mackay
Scottish National Party
Gordon Archer
Liberal Democrats
Gordon MacDonald
Labour Party
Jim Murphy
Conservative Party
Richard Cook

Rt Hon Jim Murphy
East Renfrewshire (100 %)


Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus


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10 04 27 Former resident
The Labour vote is holding up better in Scotland than anywhere else - they are down only 3%, vs 8% nationally. Lab Hold.
10 04 11 Rhyddfrydol
It was a big shock when Eastwood (as it was then) fell to the Labour Party. With a resurgent Conservative Party this is one seat that should fall, albeit marginally, to the Tories.
10 04 09 BBC Andrew Black
BBC Andrew Black identified this as a battleground seat.
‘The seat used to be held by the Conservatives, but it fell in 1997 to Labour's Jim Murphy, on a swing of 14.3%. He trebled his majority in 2001. In 2005 the Boundary Commission decided to retain the seat's boundaries, making it one of only three Scottish constituencies to escape this review unaltered. At that year's general election Mr Murphy's majority fell to 6,657.’
10 01 04 Akava77
This constituency is a natural Conservative area, and anywhere south of the border, they would win this one hands down. East Renfrewshire is likely to be one of the 2 or 3 possible gains in Scotland they can realisically hope for. Expect this to be closely fought, but I think the Tories will just manage to unseat Jim Murphy.

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