Election Prediction Project

United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Dumfries and Galloway

Prediction Changed
2010-05-06 23:09:09

Constituency Profile

Scottish National Party
Andrew Wood
UK Independence Party
Bill Wright
Conservative Party
Peter Duncan
Liberal Democrats
Richard Brodie
Labour Party
Russell Brown

Mr Russell Brown
Dumfries & Galloway (100 %)


Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus


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10 05 04 Predictor
Scotland is the place where Labour's numbers are holding best while Tories’ are dropping the most. The Tory candidate is not helped by the council's track record here. Lab hold.
10 04 30 Laird of Camster
The SNP won the Galloway & Upper Nithsdale seat when Labour were swept to power in 1997. Looks like the SNP will get this seat back.
10 04 27 ridingbyriding
I agree with akava. This seat (and it's neighbour seat) are both very ?english? in nature, much the same way monmouthshire is in Wales. The one thing both areas have in common, is a pro-tory slant.
10 04 27 Boy Waffle
This is a rather weird constituency, which in the last three elections has elected three different MPs from three different parties. It does trend toward the Tories, but the most recent Scottish edition of the Sunday Times (on page 2), while bragging that the Scottish Conservatives have recently received 300,000 pounds in donations, states that these ?will be used [...] to fight two of their target seats: Perth and North Perthshire, and Angus?. Presumably, this means that they think that Dumfries and Galloway and other marginal seats are already decided, for better or for worse. I'm guessing the latter (from the Tories' point of view), since the margin that needs to be overcome here is almost twice that of in either of the two Tayside seats.
10 01 04 Akava77
Having been the first seat to go back to the Conservative party in 2001 (after the 1997 wipe-out) it would be reasonable to say that this is one of the 2 or 3 likely Tory gains north of the border in 2010.

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