Election Prediction Project

United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Edinburgh South West

Prediction Changed
2010-05-06 23:09:09

Constituency Profile

Labour Party
Alistair Darling
Communist League
Caroline Bellamy
Scottish Green Party
Clare Cooney
Scottish Socialist Party
Colin Fox
Conservative Party
Jason Rust
Scottish National Party
Kaukab Stewart
Liberal Democrats
Tim McKay

Rt Hon Alistair Darling
Edinburgh South West (100 %)


Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus


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10 04 20 ridingbyriding
At the moment, Labour is down 10 points and the LibDems are up 10 points (nationally). According to BBC's Swingometer, a 10 point swing from Labour to the LibDems would mean they win this seat.
The final result may be close, but with reduced Tory margins, there is a chance Darling can hold on. Right now, I'd say this seat is too close IMO.
10 04 13 ridingbyriding
This seat is a Conservative Target. Labour will not hold on to it by default.
09 10 19 Boy Waffle
Having not stayed up for Portillo the last time I was in the UK for a general election, I'm not going to go to bed before ESW's result is in. It wouldn't be the first time that the people of this riding (more-or-less) dumped high-profile cabinet minister---cf. Rifkind, Malcolm.
09 03 07 Predictor
While he may be sitting on a different bench after the election, the high profile Chancellor will no doubt be returned as MP for Edinburgh South West.

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