Election Prediction Project

United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Edinburgh East

Prediction Changed
2010-05-06 23:09:09

Constituency Profile

Liberal Democrats
Beverley Hope
Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition
Gary Philip Clark
Scottish National Party
George Kerevan
Conservative Party
Martin Donald
Scottish Green Party
Robin Harper
Labour Party
Sheila Gilmore

Rt Hon Gavin Strang
Edinburgh East (100 %)


Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus


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10 04 27 Boy Waffle
I had been hoping to be able to give you all field reports from this, my home constituency. But truth be told, it is impossible to tell just from walking about the toon that an election is being held, let alone who is winning it. As a Canadian, I find this very strange: there are literally no posters anywhere to be seen. I have received four pieces of mail from the SNP, one each from Labour and the Greens, and none at all from the Tories and LibDems. Read into that what you will...
10 04 27 Former resident
The Labour vote is holding up better in Scotland than anywhere else - they are down only 3%, vs 8% nationally. Lab Hold.
10 04 11 Rhyddfrydol
Despite Alex Salmond's protestations that the SNP are strong challengers here, the Labour Party will hold this seat.
09 10 19 Boy Waffle
This one is going to be interesting! With Gavin Strang standing down, Labour is going to have a struggle to keep this seat, but it's not clear who stands to benefit most.
Looking at the 2005 result, the LibDems are in pole position---but there's plenty of disappointment with the way they're running the City Council (which they took over in 2007). Similarly, the shine's off the SNP as they struggle with the reality of government in Holyrood. And Conservative is still very much a dirty word in the urban parts of Scotland.
If the Greens field a candidate here, like they did in 2005, I'll wager they can double the 5.7% they won then---not enough to win, obviously, but perhaps enough to play spoiler, if they hurt one party more than another.

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