Election Prediction Project
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United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Aberdeen South


Prediction Changed
2010-05-07 09:22:24
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Conservative Party
Amanda Harvie
Labour Party
Anne Begg
Liberal Democrats
John Sleigh
Scottish National Party
Mark McDonald
Scottish Green Party
Rhonda Reekie
Scotland Against Crooked Lawyers
Robert Green
British National Party
Susan Ross

Incumbent:
Miss Anne Begg
Aberdeen South (100 %)

Electorate:
Current
69332
2005
67012

Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus
15272
7134
13924
4120
Other
1171

 


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10 05 05 Former resident
209.250.145.174
Guardian surprisingly reporting that ‘Labour fears are subsiding’ in this one.
Would be going against the trend if they did retain it. Will leave it to the site to predict!

Guardian May 5th, 2010
The Scottish Labour party is getting jittery about losing more seats than expected tomorrow, with the Lib Dems, Tories and nationalists now closing in on at least five key seats across central Scotland.
Party sources and senior figures, including Jim Murphy, the Scottish secretary, admit the race is far tighter than expected in seats once regarded as safe, even though Scotland-wide Labour's poll ratings are holding firm.
Anxieties are mounting that the Lib Dems will grab their first Glasgow seat for nearly a century, in Glasgow North, unseating the low-profile junior Scotland minister, Ann McKechin, who is defending a 3,338-vote majority.
The seat was on Nick Clegg's vote-rallying cross-country tour yesterday evening, and senior Labour figures have let it be known they estimate the Lib Dems have a 1,000-vote lead over Labour. Clegg's visit ‘energised’ party activists.
Apparently the last Glaswegian Liberal MP – excluded Roy Jenkins's victory for the SDP in Glasgow Hillhead in 1982 – was Tony Benn's grandfather, Daniel Turner Holmes, in 1911 in Glasgow Govan.
Murphy is fighting a reinvigorated Tory campaign in his nominally safe seat of East Renfrewshire, the constituency visited by David Cameron on the Tory leader's ‘through the night’ campaign tour of UK target seats.
Murphy is defending a 6,657-vote majority and was previously very confident he would retain it, but he told the BBC today that the contest there was ‘too close to call’. This raises the unpalatable prospect for Labour of both its Scottish ministers being unseated.
Elsewhere, the Lib Dems are clear favourites to win Edinburgh North & Leith from Labour's Mark Lazarowicz, a former council leader, and Edinburgh South, which was held by the former trade minister Nigel Griffiths until his retirement from politics earlier this year.
The latest two polls in Scotland, both by YouGov for the Scotsman and PoliticsHome, put Labour a clear first at 37%, with the SNP second on 21% or 25%, the Lib Dems third on 22% in both polls, and the Tories now trailing last on either 14% or 17% depending on the poll.
Labour is still confident it will win back two seats lost at byelections since 2005: Dunfermline and West Fife, taken by the Lib Dems in 2006, and Glasgow East, won by the SNP in 2008.
Its fears that Aberdeen South could fall to the Lib Dems have apparently subsided, while the highly marginal Ochil and South Perthshire and Stirling remain Labour seats to watch.
These figures suggest the SNP can win the prize seat of Dundee West from Labour's Jim McGovern, completing the nationalists' control of this prize city and cementing the notion of an east coast nationalist arc from Tayside through to Moray.
10 05 05 EP
204.9.162.70
the final Scotsman/YouGov poll shows Labour holding on to their strength and only losing may be a seat or two in Scotland. The two thousand votes margin is probably enough for them to hold on to this seat.
10 04 30 Laird of Camster
94.197.104.219
The trend seems to be to the Liberal Democrats - looks like John Sleigh will be the next MP for Aberdeen South
10 04 27 Boy Waffle
129.215.90.50
With the LibDems surging into second place in Scotland (according to YouGov's most recent regional figures, ), it seems obvious that they will take this marginal seat from Labour.
10 04 24 Former resident
70.29.18.217
LD gain. This is number 11 on their national target list.
The LD's will benefit hugely from Clegg's game-changing performance in the TV debate. This is one of many seats where they will see that benefit.
10 04 23 frankcan
99.252.108.132
Nick Clegg's performance in the debates and the subsequent bounce in the polls put the LibDems very much in play here. They may have more than made up their disadvantage from the last vote and should take this seat with a good majority.
10 04 11 Rhyddfrydol
92.41.135.249
Much as I would like to see a LibDem victory here, I fear it will be Labour clinging on.
10 04 09 BBC Andrew Black
204.9.162.70
BBC Andrew Black identified this as a battleground seat.
‘Anne Begg gained this seat for Labour in 1997 and she increased her share of the vote in 2001. Boundary changes saw Gilcomston, Langstane and Queen's Cross added from Aberdeen Central for the 2005 election and Ms Begg was returned with a reduced majority of 1,348.’
10 01 23 akava77
82.41.50.175
A very close result for the Lib Dems last time round could see them capitalise on an anti-Labour tactical vote. The Lib Dems hold Aberdeen South in Holyrood, so quite possibly they will in Westminster too after 2010. Both Aberdeen seats are possibile ones to change hands this year, but the South is more likely to change than the North.
10 01 06 Akava77
82.41.245.11
Lib Dems hold the corresponding Holyrood seat, and are best placed to unseat Labour here. Aberdeen can no longer be considered a ‘Labour City’.



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