Election Prediction Project
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United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Bury South


Prediction Changed
2010-05-07 09:22:24
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Green Party
George Heron
Labour Party
Ivan Lewis
British National Party
Jean Purdy
Conservative Party
Michelle Wiseman
UK Independence Party
Paul Chadwick
English Democrats Party
Valerie Morris
Liberal Democrats
Victor D'Albert

Incumbent:
Mr Ivan Lewis
Bury South (100 %)
Mr David Chaytor
Bury North (8 %)

Electorate:
Current
73212
2005
72697

Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus
21485
11980
7303
Other
1948

 


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10 04 22 Predictor
99.211.152.63
Inevitably the fact that Ivan Lewis leaving his wife for a Labour Councillor would come up on the campaign trail, but that was a few years ago, and I don’t think has weakened his core personal vote. Being a junior minister always help, and of course, the margin is pretty big here. Labour hold.



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