Election Prediction Project
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United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Bolton West


Prediction Changed
2010-05-07 09:22:24
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:
You Party
Doug Bagnall
UK Independence Party
Harry Lamb
Liberal Democrats
Jackie Pearcey
Independent
Jimmy Jones
Labour Party
Julie Hilling
Green Party
Rachel Mann
Conservative Party
Susan Williams

Incumbent:
Rt Hon Ruth Kelly
Bolton West (90.4 %)
Ms Barbara Keeley
Worsley (8.4 %)
Rt Hon Andy Burnham
Leigh (7.1 %)

Electorate:
Current
68575
2005
68923

Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus
18495
13935
9074
Other
966

 


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10 04 30 Northsider
94.197.104.219
Labour smear tactics on the LibDem agent are backfiring - there has been a late surge in support for the LibDems.
10 04 27 ridingbyriding
173.32.33.116
I can't say if the Tories or Labour will win, but I do know the LibDems will not. The gap is just too large, and without local issue, there is not enough to change that. Simple math. Labour is down to 2/3rds while the LibDems are up 3/2nds (on last-time support) That would mean 9K+4.5K=13.5K for the LibDems and 18K-6K=12K for Labour. The Tories are where they were last time, meaning they win at 14K. The reality is the math is far more complicated. The LibDems are not a full 150% up, nor is Labour a full 66% down.
10 04 11 Rhyddfrydol
92.41.135.249
Liberal Democrats will come up from third place - the seat was previously a Liberal seat in the 1950s, and there is a resurgence of support for them.
09 05 05 BBC News
204.9.162.70
Ruth Kelly to stand down as an MP
Transport Secretary Ruth Kelly is to stand down as an MP at the next general election.
She made the announcement at a Labour supporters' meeting in her Bolton West constituency.
Ms Kelly made it clear she wanted to spend more time with her four children as they grew up, and stressed she was not seeking a safer seat.
She has already said she will leave the cabinet at the next reshuffle - expected on Friday.
'Right decision'
Ms Kelly said it had been an ?honour and privilege? to serve the constituency since she became an MP in May 1997.
?I've thoroughly enjoyed serving the people of my constituency and intend to continue to keep working diligently for them until the next general election,? she said.
? I look forward to campaigning actively for Labour and firmly believe that we can win Bolton West at the next general election ?
Ruth Kelly
?I've taken the area to my heart and will leave with a touch of sadness and fond memories, although I'm sure the decision I have taken is right for myself and my family.?
She said she was confident Labour was well placed to deal with the current financial turmoil ?under the strong leadership of Gordon Brown?.
Ms Kelly added: ?I look forward to campaigning actively for Labour and firmly believe that we can win Bolton West at the next general election.
?Only a Labour Bolton West MP working with a Labour government will build in the years to come on the solid foundations we've already laid.?
'No issues'
Ms Kelly, who has four children aged 11 or under, won Bolton West at the last election, in 2005, with a 2,064-vote majority.
Councillor Cliff Morris, chairman of the Bolton West constituency Labour Party, paid tribute to the MP.
?I've known Ruth from the start of her time as a Bolton West MP and it's been a pleasure to work with her,? he said.
?I'd like to thank her for all the hard work and effort she's made for the people of her constituency during the last 11 years.?
Ms Kelly became education secretary in 2004, before becoming communities secretary and then moving to Transport in 2007.
Prior to her resignation as a minister, there had been speculation the 40-year-old, a devout Catholic, could leave the government because of her objections to the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Bill.
After her decision to leave the government was revealed, Prime Minister Gordon Brown said: ?There are no political issues between Ruth and me.?
Ms Kelly described the prime minister as a ?towering figure?.



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