Election Prediction Project
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United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Scunthorpe


Prediction Changed
2010-05-07 10:16:22
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Conservative Party
Caroline Johnson
British National Party
Douglas Ward
UK Independence Party
Jane Collins
Green Party
Natalie Hurst
Liberal Democrats
Neil Poole
Labour Party
Nicholas Dakin

Incumbent:
Rt Hon Elliot Morley
Scunthorpe (100 %)
Mr Ian Cawsey
Brigg & Goole (3.1 %)

Electorate:
Current
62032
2005
64784

Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus
17718
9096
5784
Other
1403

 


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10 04 24 Former resident
70.29.18.217
Existing Labour MP is facing criminal charges over his expense claims. He is standing down.
Amazingly, the Lib Dems are targetting this one - see story below.
Not sure if the LD grasp can reach this far - seems a safe Labour seat, but one to call closer to the day.
Sunthorpe Telegraph April 20
THE Liberal Democrat election surge will continue after Thursday's live foreign affairs debate, the party's foreign affairs spokesman said.
Lord William Wallace, on a visit to the Scunthorpe constituency, said foreign affairs was leader Nick Clegg's ‘strong suit’ and would boost Scunthorpe candidate Councillor Neil Poole's campaign ahead of the General Election on May 6.
Lord Wallace said: ‘The thing I'm struck by is the great surge in people wanting to come and help us since last week's debate.
‘We have got new members coming in, we have got people asking to come and deliver leaflets.
‘Part of what is wrong in British politics is the party that wins the election takes over complete control. We say a balanced Parliament is a stronger Parliament.’
Since Britain's first live Prime Ministerial debate last Thursday, the Liberal Democrats' position in national polls has soared, with one YouGov putting them in first place.
The second of three debates takes place on Thursday night, hosted and broadcast by Sky News, and will focus on foreign affairs.
Lord Wallace added: ‘Foreign Affairs is Nick Clegg's strong suit. He worked in Brussels as a trade negotiator, negotiating with the US and Japan.
‘We are comfortable in our approach to foreign policy. The reason we were opposed to the Iraq war was we don't belive that Britain has to follow the Americans around.’
Cllr Poole said he was seeing a big surge in local support since Thursday's debate – with former Labour voters pledging to vote for him.
He said: ‘People are ringing up and wanting to deliver leaflets in their street.
‘The reaction to Thursday's debate is now driving my campaign.
‘I won my council seat in 2007 in what was the safest Tory seat in North Lincolnshire. I came from fourth place and won it.
‘Scunthorpe can be won. If we continue to get the surge of support, there is no limit to the surge of success the Liberal Democrats can have in Scunthorpe.’
Labour candidate Nic Dakin said: ‘I think it's really positive that the debate seems to have captured some of the public's imagination and encouraged more interest and excitement in the campaign.’



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