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Constituency Profile
Candidates:
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Christian Party Charith Fernando | |
Conservative Party Deirdre Alden | |
Labour Party Gisela Stuart | |
UK Independence Party Greville Warwick | |
Impact Party Harry Takhar | |
Green Party Phil Simpson | |
Liberal Democrats Roger Harmer | |
British National Party Trevor Lloyd |
Incumbent: |
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Ms Gisela Stuart Birmingham, Edgbaston (96 %) |
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Rt Hon Clare Short Birmingham, Ladywood (4.7 %) |
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Richard Burden Birmingham, Northfield (3.2 %) |
Electorate: |
Current | 71523 |
2005 | 67334 |
Transposed 2005 Result: Source: Electoral Calculus |
| 16663 |
| 15071 |
| 5052 |
Other | 1868 |
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| 10 05 05 |
Adrian Bailey 82.36.129.101 |
Birmingham will wake up on May 7th to discover that overnight it's become Marginal Central. All the city's seats, barring perhaps Yardley, will have small majorities for one party or another and become a key battleground in the next election. Among the city's Tory targets, Edgbaston is the easiest pick-up and I expect them to have a majority of around 4,000-5,000. |
| 09 09 21 |
Efrem 84.69.74.153 |
The Tories had held Edgbaston for a good deal longer than seventy years when it fell in '97 - if you count the Liberal Unionists as Tories, then this part of Birmingham had been Tory since the splitting of the Liberal Party over Ireland towards the end of the 19th century. But the long Tory pedigree here is basically irrelevent - for most of that period Birmingham was, despite its industrial nature, first a Tory city and then (after Birmingham's strange democratic revolution in 1945) stronger for the Tories than would normally be expected, while Edgbaston was solidly middle class, even rather bourgeois. Neither of these things are true now. Still, it is the most middle class of the Birmingham constituencies if you ignore Sutton Coldfield and the Tories were close in 2005. The Tories have also led by miles in local elections, but such things in Birmingham must be treated with a hilarious amount of caution. Still, a Tory gain seems probably. And yet... Gisela is so right-wing herself that I can help but wondering whether the swing here might be very low, despite national trends. It would certainly be amusing. |
| 09 05 03 |
Matt Foster 24.150.169.5 |
This seat was picked up in the New Labour landslide of 1997 however given Cameron's increasing popularity, I can't see Labour holding it at all. Since the Tories held the seat for more than 70 years before they lost it, I see this one easily going to the Tories in the next general election. |
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