Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Birmingham, Edgbaston


Prediction Changed
2010-05-07 09:22:24
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Christian Party
Charith Fernando
Conservative Party
Deirdre Alden
Labour Party
Gisela Stuart
UK Independence Party
Greville Warwick
Impact Party
Harry Takhar
Green Party
Phil Simpson
Liberal Democrats
Roger Harmer
British National Party
Trevor Lloyd

Incumbent:
Ms Gisela Stuart
Birmingham, Edgbaston (96 %)
Rt Hon Clare Short
Birmingham, Ladywood (4.7 %)
Richard Burden
Birmingham, Northfield (3.2 %)

Electorate:
Current
71523
2005
67334

Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus
16663
15071
5052
Other
1868

 


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10 05 05 Adrian Bailey
82.36.129.101
Birmingham will wake up on May 7th to discover that overnight it's become Marginal Central. All the city's seats, barring perhaps Yardley, will have small majorities for one party or another and become a key battleground in the next election.
Among the city's Tory targets, Edgbaston is the easiest pick-up and I expect them to have a majority of around 4,000-5,000.
09 09 21 Efrem
84.69.74.153
The Tories had held Edgbaston for a good deal longer than seventy years when it fell in '97 - if you count the Liberal Unionists as Tories, then this part of Birmingham had been Tory since the splitting of the Liberal Party over Ireland towards the end of the 19th century. But the long Tory pedigree here is basically irrelevent - for most of that period Birmingham was, despite its industrial nature, first a Tory city and then (after Birmingham's strange democratic revolution in 1945) stronger for the Tories than would normally be expected, while Edgbaston was solidly middle class, even rather bourgeois. Neither of these things are true now. Still, it is the most middle class of the Birmingham constituencies if you ignore Sutton Coldfield and the Tories were close in 2005. The Tories have also led by miles in local elections, but such things in Birmingham must be treated with a hilarious amount of caution. Still, a Tory gain seems probably. And yet... Gisela is so right-wing herself that I can help but wondering whether the swing here might be very low, despite national trends. It would certainly be amusing.
09 05 03 Matt Foster
24.150.169.5
This seat was picked up in the New Labour landslide of 1997 however given Cameron's increasing popularity, I can't see Labour holding it at all. Since the Tories held the seat for more than 70 years before they lost it, I see this one easily going to the Tories in the next general election.



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