Election Prediction Project
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United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Ashfield


Prediction Changed
2010-05-07 09:22:24
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Independent
Eddie Smith
British National Party
Edward Holmes
Conservative Party
Garry Hickton
Labour Party
Gloria De Piero
Liberal Democrats
Jason Zadrozny
UK Independence Party
Terry Coleman
English Democrats Party
Tony Ellis

Incumbent:
Rt Hon Geoff Hoon
Ashfield (100 %)
Dr Nick Palmer
Broxtowe (1.7 %)

Electorate:
Current
74674
2005
74580

Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus
20863
10484
5945
Other
5568

 


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09 03 12 Khunanup
86.131.81.83
Don't underestimate the Lib Dems in this seat. They have as their candidate the 28 year old leader of Ashfield council who is very well thought of in the party as a whole & particularly in the East Midlands. The results from last time seem to be mostly irrelevant when coming to predict this seat as so much has changed locally in the seat since 2005. It would not surprise me at all if this turned into the 'Solihull' of election night 2009/10. I can't out & out predict a Lib Dem gain, but I would say that they will be at least a good second with the Labour vote dramatically falling.
09 03 07
99.231.184.167
Seat of a cabinet minister + large margin from previous elections = easy keep for Geoff Hoon.



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