Election Prediction Project
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United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

St Albans


Prediction Changed
2010-05-07 10:13:45
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Conservative Party
Anne Main
Green Party
Jack Easton
UK Independence Party
John Stocker
Labour Party
Roma Mills
Liberal Democrats
Sandy Walkington

Incumbent:
Anne Main
St Albans (99.9 %)

Electorate:
Current
66738
2005
64687

Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus
15595
16978
11597
Other
1356

 


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10 04 24 Former resident
70.29.18.217
A lot of voter engagement in this one. Anne Main actually survived a deselection attempt, the Tories being uspet at the expenses scandal.
UKIP also stoking up their campaign, which should take votes from the Tories.
Odds have shortened in the last few days.
Ladbrokes: Con 8/13 LD 11/10
St Albans Times Apr 21
HUNDREDS of voters packed into St Albans Abbey to watch the city's five General Election candidates do battle last night.
The medieval cathedral was close to capacity as Conservative MP Anne Main and her challengers Roma Mills, Sandy Walkington, John Stocker and Jack Easton debated questions from the public, under the chairmanship of Jonathan Smith, Archdeacon of St Albans.
Answering the first question about how to re-engage people in politics, Mr Walkington said: ‘Looking at the number of people here, I am nowhere near as pessimistic about public interest in politics as I was.
‘Nick Clegg has energised the debate - I think something quite exciting is happening.’
Other topics covered includded nuclear weapons, immigration, climate change, higher education, the Treaty of Lisbon and local hospital services.
Apart from Mrs Main, who favoured British nuclear disarmament as a long term goal, the candidates unanimously opposed the renewal of Trident submarines, Councillor Mills admitting she was opposed to official Labour policy on the matter.
10 04 15 Former resident
64.231.161.51
My father lives in this constituency. The Tory incumbent was caught badly in the expenses scandal, wrongly claiming for her daughter's flat, yet she has decided not to step down, and is standing again.
The Tories are also in charge of the county council, and are blamed for the state of disrepair of roads in the town, a very significant local issue.
Labour will be nowhere in this relatively well-to-do area. The local expectations are for a Lib Dem gain. I see no reason to contradict these expectations.
09 07 26 David
195.7.251.250
This one will go against the national trend, I suspect. Anne Main was badly caught out in the expenses scandal. She has shown no understanding of what she did wrong, nor any remorse. The St Albans Tories have made the mistake of backing her, so she'll be the Tory candidate next year. Easy LibDem gain, I fear.



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