Election Prediction Project
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United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Hereford and South Herefordshire


Prediction Changed
2010-05-07 09:25:05
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Conservative Party
Jesse Norman
British National Party
John Oliver
Labour Party
Philippa Roberts
Liberal Democrats
Sarah Carr
UK Independence Party
Valentine Smith

Incumbent:
Mr Paul Keetch
Hereford (96.8 %)

Electorate:
Current
69632
2005
69847

Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus
4744
18502
19964
Other
2408

 


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10 04 24 Former resident
70.29.18.217
Note to the website - Hereford is NOT in the East of England ;-) This should be part of the West Midlands, along with North Herefordshire. You have it listed under Hertfordshire constituencies.
Regardless, this is a great race - Tories and LDs both at 5/6 with Ladbrokes. It is only notionally an LD seat, with the boundary changes. Sitting MP not standing again, although he announced in 2006 he would stand down, before the expenses scandal.
Simon Hughes visted today, supporting the LD candidate. Will likely remain close right up to election day; but it is hard to see the LDs ‘losing’ any seats with the Clegg bounce.
10 04 20 Predictor
99.211.152.63
Given the general trend of LibDem gain, the conventional wisdom would be that LibDem will hold on to this seat and increase their margin. However, the Tories are certainly not out of the picture there. I'd say they have as good a chance as the LibDem to win this seat.



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