Election Prediction Project
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United Kingdom General Election - 2009/10

Kensington


Prediction Changed
2010-05-07 10:34:48
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:
Alliance For Green Socialism
Eddie Adams
UK Independence Party
Lady Caroline Pearson of Rannoch
Conservative Party
Malcolm Rifkind
Liberal Democrats
Robin Meltzer
Labour Party
Sam Gurney
Green Party
Zahra-Melan Ebrahimi-Fardouée

Incumbent:
Rt Hon Sir Malcolm Rifkind
Kensington & Chelsea (63 %)
Ms Karen Buck
Regent's Park & Kensington North (29.3 %)

Electorate:
Current
65482
2005
61682

Transposed 2005 Result:
Source: Electoral Calculus
9031
14133
6179
Other
2297

 


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10 03 08 Rob- London
193.34.231.235
I think people mistakenly see the name Kensington and assume that this is a forgone conclusion for the Conservatives. However due to boundary changes this is not the seat which was created in time for the 1997 election. Boundary changes which remove the heavily Conservative Chelsea from the seat and add the more Labour inclined North Kensington will notionally reduce the Conservative share by 10% and increase the Labour share by the same. Due to the vast majority the Conservatives secured in 2005 these changes should not damage their chances of holding on to this seat this time round- though this may be a seat to watch on election night.
09 03 17 Predictor
204.9.162.70
This seat served as easy re-entry point for a number of prominent Tories (Portillo, Rifkind). Difficult to imagine this swinging the other way in an up year for them.



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