09 09 26	John 74.210.6.9
Bagnall will keep this one. Incumbant advantage, and I get the impression he is a hard working MP.
	09 09 24	Con Man 75.155.169.223
Conservatives will likely be courting Independent MLA Brad Cathers in the aftermath of his resignation from the Yukon cabinet. Cathers has a long history with the Reform/Alliance serving as president of their constituency association, and as the Yukon's member on the Canadian Alliance national council for three years. He's young and has asserted himself well in Fentie's cabinet over the years. He has only increased his popularity following his resignation from cabinet due to ?dishonesty? on Premier Fentie's part. Despite Harper's closeness to Fentie, recruiting Cathers is a no brainer. There are few high-caliber candidates with a shot at defeating Larry Bagnell, but Cathers is one of them. Could be a potential asset to Harper and another messenger for the government's northern vision. Will be interesting to monitor how Yukon government handles minority situation, and how Cathers approaches his future.
	09 09 10	Nick J Boragina 198.96.35.219
I'm going to project a Liberal win due to party strength. They say that in the north, people don't vote for parties, they vote for people. That is true... outside of Whitehorse. As the only territory with 'provincial' parties, Yukon elections show that Whitehorse is more than willing to vote a party line. While rural areas of Yukon do have a very strong say when a quality candidate runs, the vote within Whitehorse is enough to push an even lower-quality person over the edge. With a strong MP here for the Liberals and a resurging party, the Grits will be able to hold on here.
	09 08 29	B.O. 142.176.71.130
I'm predicting Liberal in this riding for now. It is fairly rare for incumbent federal MPs in the Territories to lose their seats to a challenger. Last election the NDP vote collapsed in the Yukon and appeared to go either to the Conservatives or the Liberals. Probably much of that collapsed NDP vote went to the Liberals while some previous Liberal support probably went to the Tories. This had the effect of giving Bagnell a vote share of mid-to-high forties for the third straight time while putting the Conservative vote at around 32%. In response to wyatt's post, a lot of resources appears to have already been put into the Conservative campaign in this riding in the 2008 election. The Conservative candidate spent a whopping $19,000 on radio/TV advertising (way, way more than Bagnell spent on radio/TV advertising) and outspent Bagnell by a considerable amount in other types of advertising as well. These figures are from Elections Canada. Also important to note is that much of the Northern policy announced by Harper this August is a reannouncement of the same policies announced last year in August right before the election. While Harper also officially committed funding to expand Yukon's Mayo Dam on his recent Arctic trip, these types of announcements often do not decisively swing votes. My point is that much of Harper's trip to the Arctic was reannouncing the same Arctic policies already announced in August 2008. It is true that last year those announcements did appear to swing several votes to the Conservatives in the Arctic. But the swings weren't that huge when you also consider the momentum of the national Conservative campaign at the time. In raw percentage numbers the largest increase in Conservative support in the 3 Territorial ridings from 2006 to 2008 was in Western Arctic, where the Tories saw their support increase by 17%. Also of note is that not everyone in the Territories is going to like the particularly military emphasis of the Conservatives' Arctic strategy. I'm not convinced funding a hydroelectric dam and reannouncing an already announced Arctic policy would be enough to actually swing this riding. It certainly is possible but until I see more evidence I can for now call Yukon for the Liberals.
	09 08 24	wyatt 24.235.142.160
This should be a Grit hold. However, Bagnall lost votes last time out, despite an overall increase in turnout for the riding. The Tories seem interested in actually making a play in the north after Harper's most recent visit, and if they actually decide to devote some resources here, it could go there way. Look for a slim Tory win.
	09 08 24	MJA 76.74.206.85
The thing with the Yukon is that in a riding of roughly 20 000 people, 18 000 of them live in Whitehorse. The margin of victory last time was under 2000 votes. The stereotype of northern campaigns being hard, frosty battles fought in tiny fly-in communities and hamlets just doesn't hold true here, and it's entirely possible that a few flying visits from Harper is all it will take to swing the ~800 votes that the Conservatives would need to take the day. Elections in the North tend to hold little resemblance to southern elections, so even if Conservative fortunes are declining elsewhere, this might be a seat they could hope to pick up. I won't make a projection either way, though, because if there really is a silent majority forming in the Yukon, we southerners will be the last to hear of it!
	09 08 23	Observer 89.180.69.237
Yukon does not elect a Conservative MP since 1984. Conservatives are weak in the North and particularly in this riding. In the other hand, Larry Bagnell is certainly to be Liberal minister for Northern affais in the case Liberals form the next government.
	09 08 20	R.O. 209.91.149.133
i disagree with calling this one so soon for the liberals even though Larry Bagnell has been mp for a number of years, why cause Harper and his advisors are too smart to waste an entire day touring this riding if it was in fact that solid of a liberal riding . in the last election the conservatives came in a solid second here and have been increasing there share of the vote here significantly since the 2004 election and now overtaken the ndp for second place here so i definitely see it being an interesting race again.
	09 08 19	Observer 89.180.68.109
Yukon is now a solid Liberal territory. Gone are the days when the NDP was the leading party here.