Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-08-19 21:19:00

Constituency Profile


Bagnell, Larry

Barr, Kevin

Leef, Ryan

Streicker, John

Hon. Larry Bagnell

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction


  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 05 01 DOB
    There is a mood for change and disatisfaction with the Liberals and Conservatives. Larry has been popular and rated at being hardworking. Yet the gun issue has influenced many not to vote for him.He is still the favourite. Some think that Ryan Leef will challenge. Some may hope that the orange surge will take place. Despite Conservative and NDP hopes they seem to being not gaining ground. The only focus on the Greens nationally is will May topple Lunn. In Yukon it appears the Streiker, the Green candidate is picking up support and is the only one who has a slim chance of beating Larry.
    11 04 29 Not Non-Partisan
    Yup, I think the Libs will win this one. The closest seat that they will hold is Etobicoke North.
    11 04 27 FormerPundit
    In case there is any doubt that Larry will hang on, here's a poll published on Apr. 26 proving that he is way out front with the Cons second, Green third and NDP fourth.
    11 04 16 M. Lunn
    This riding rarely turfs incumbents and Larry Bagnell has been a very popular and hard working MP. Yes his vote on the gun registry was no doubt not very popular, but I doubt this is the only issue people vote on here. Besides those who this was the most important issue for would already be in the Tory camp. Besides if the Tories win a weaker minority he can vote against without resulting in its demise while if they win a majority it will pass anyways so in both cases I don't think he will face any discipline for breaking party lines.
    11 04 13 kevinski
    Still thinking Liberal; although the Conservatives are well organized and have a healthy bankroll for the coming weeks. This has the chance to come into play...but not quite there yet...
    11 02 08 Ghosts of elections past
    Its asinine to predict a victory for Paul Okalik.
    You don't just drop into an election campaign days before the nomination deadline and expect to win, especially when your opponent has had a head start, incumbency advantage, a cabinet post, and her party has a healthy lead in the national polls.
    Yes Okalik is a former Premier, but lets face it, that was 2008, and the legislature punted him from that position. Will Okalik have a base of support in Iqaluit? Yes he will, Will he have a base in the communities outside of Iqaluit? No he won't because those are the communities that carried Aglukkaq to victory in 2008. She doesn't need to win Iqaluit to win Nunavut.
    Also the NDP candidate Jack Hicks is confined to Iqaluit due to limited campaign resources and also has a head start campaigning on Okalik and they will have to share that potential base.
    Okalik should have kept his seat in Iqaluit West because on May 2 he will be out of a job.
    11 04 05 M. Lunn
    Larry Bagnell is a popular candidate and so I would be surprised if he loses here. Also this riding rarely turfs MPs as it was PC from 1957-1987, NDP from 1987-2000 and Liberal since 2000. However, the gun registry is deeply unpopular here and that is the one issue that may help the Tories, but probably not enough to put them over the top.
    11 04 02 J Keller
    Incumbent hold. Just heard on CBC two newspaper editors, the consensus is absolutely clear: No Conservative breakthrough. No 'coalition' concerns. Incumbents will win.
    Agreed on climate issue. It's daily reality in the Far North. Tar Sands boosters who show up here should be lynched and their bodies mailed home.
    11 03 23 AR
    As much as I thought the gun registry would be a big issue in this riding, the environment appears to be the much bigger issue. People who are calling this riding for the conservatives are forgetting that the effects of climate change are seen more drastically in the north than below 60*.
    Also here is the latest poll from Peel Watershed News (2011)
    ‘Federally, Liberal MP Larry Bagnell continues to enjoy strong support. The poll has him sitting at 47 per cent compared to the Conservatives at 23 per cent, the Greens at 20 per cent and the NDP at 10 per cent.
    But even though Bagnell was the favoured MP, 37 per cent of those polled said they preferred Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper to lead the country.’
    Only a disasterous campaign by the liberals could turn this riding blue.
    11 03 22 O'Brien
    Larry Bagnell could have delivered the end of the long gun registry for his constituents. Instead his vote preserved it. Yukoners are faced with reality that if they keep him as their MP, he can be, as this story below describes it ‘strongarmed’ into going back on his word to his constituents and not following the wishes of his constituents.
    Just as the BC and Yukon Liberal Parties weren't really like the Federal Liberal party on some key issues, the only reason many people felt they could vote for Bagnell there was precisely the fact that his position on long gun registry was different from the federal Liberal party. Now, this isn't the case. This election will be the first time Yukoners will know for certain - with last year's commons vote as the proof - that the only possible way they can have an MP who will stand up for them on the long gun registry will be if they elect a Conservative. . . something that the riding has certainly done in the past. . .
    10 10 16 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Not surprising there are a post appearing that suggest a particular MP will get canned due to the long gun registry vote. This sounds like the SSM argument a few electionprediction-go-rounds ago. Back then there were much bigger issues driving the electorate and only the big time bible thumpers actually cared (but already voted Conservative or CHP so nothing changed). Come election time the long gun debate will likely be pushed aside again for more pressing issues. Those that REALLY care about this issue to the point of it being the ballot question are probably a little Yosemite Sam-like and already vote CPC. Dr Bear lives in one of those so-called long gun target ridings (Nipissing-Timiskiming) and no one is talking about it except those who are in the Conservative party or frequent sites like this one. Also, it's unlikely that Harper will make a big stink about the long gun registry because he is looking for a majority and he already holds most of the rural seats. He needs to keep all of his current seats and gain some in urban Canada and/or Quebec. Both of which more or less support the gun registry. If he makes too big of a deal on it, urban center and Quebec voters will shift their vote elsewhere (he would come off as too Yosemite Sam) and he will lose seats in places like Kitchener, the 905 and Ottawa. Ones he desperately needs to keep. Our opinion may change if Tory numbers go up and over 35% and stay there but now it's more likely the long gun registry is a lot of huffing and puffing and will all blow over come any election...much like SSM did some time ago.
    10 09 22 JBWindsor
    I believe Larry Bagnall will lose his seat over his vote on the long-gun registry. Favour the Conservatives, because they are the only party that will vote to kill the registry.
    09 09 26 John
    Bagnall will keep this one. Incumbant advantage, and I get the impression he is a hard working MP.
    09 09 24 Con Man
    Conservatives will likely be courting Independent MLA Brad Cathers in the aftermath of his resignation from the Yukon cabinet. Cathers has a long history with the Reform/Alliance serving as president of their constituency association, and as the Yukon's member on the Canadian Alliance national council for three years. He's young and has asserted himself well in Fentie's cabinet over the years. He has only increased his popularity following his resignation from cabinet due to ?dishonesty? on Premier Fentie's part. Despite Harper's closeness to Fentie, recruiting Cathers is a no brainer. There are few high-caliber candidates with a shot at defeating Larry Bagnell, but Cathers is one of them. Could be a potential asset to Harper and another messenger for the government's northern vision. Will be interesting to monitor how Yukon government handles minority situation, and how Cathers approaches his future.
    09 09 10 Nick J Boragina
    I'm going to project a Liberal win due to party strength. They say that in the north, people don't vote for parties, they vote for people. That is true... outside of Whitehorse.
    As the only territory with 'provincial' parties, Yukon elections show that Whitehorse is more than willing to vote a party line. While rural areas of Yukon do have a very strong say when a quality candidate runs, the vote within Whitehorse is enough to push an even lower-quality person over the edge. With a strong MP here for the Liberals and a resurging party, the Grits will be able to hold on here.
    09 08 29 B.O.
    I'm predicting Liberal in this riding for now. It is fairly rare for incumbent federal MPs in the Territories to lose their seats to a challenger. Last election the NDP vote collapsed in the Yukon and appeared to go either to the Conservatives or the Liberals. Probably much of that collapsed NDP vote went to the Liberals while some previous Liberal support probably went to the Tories. This had the effect of giving Bagnell a vote share of mid-to-high forties for the third straight time while putting the Conservative vote at around 32%. In response to wyatt's post, a lot of resources appears to have already been put into the Conservative campaign in this riding in the 2008 election. The Conservative candidate spent a whopping $19,000 on radio/TV advertising (way, way more than Bagnell spent on radio/TV advertising) and outspent Bagnell by a considerable amount in other types of advertising as well. These figures are from Elections Canada. Also important to note is that much of the Northern policy announced by Harper this August is a reannouncement of the same policies announced last year in August right before the election. While Harper also officially committed funding to expand Yukon's Mayo Dam on his recent Arctic trip, these types of announcements often do not decisively swing votes. My point is that much of Harper's trip to the Arctic was reannouncing the same Arctic policies already announced in August 2008. It is true that last year those announcements did appear to swing several votes to the Conservatives in the Arctic. But the swings weren't that huge when you also consider the momentum of the national Conservative campaign at the time. In raw percentage numbers the largest increase in Conservative support in the 3 Territorial ridings from 2006 to 2008 was in Western Arctic, where the Tories saw their support increase by 17%. Also of note is that not everyone in the Territories is going to like the particularly military emphasis of the Conservatives' Arctic strategy. I'm not convinced funding a hydroelectric dam and reannouncing an already announced Arctic policy would be enough to actually swing this riding. It certainly is possible but until I see more evidence I can for now call Yukon for the Liberals.
    09 08 24 wyatt
    This should be a Grit hold. However, Bagnall lost votes last time out, despite an overall increase in turnout for the riding. The Tories seem interested in actually making a play in the north after Harper's most recent visit, and if they actually decide to devote some resources here, it could go there way. Look for a slim Tory win.
    09 08 24 MJA
    The thing with the Yukon is that in a riding of roughly 20 000 people, 18 000 of them live in Whitehorse. The margin of victory last time was under 2000 votes. The stereotype of northern campaigns being hard, frosty battles fought in tiny fly-in communities and hamlets just doesn't hold true here, and it's entirely possible that a few flying visits from Harper is all it will take to swing the ~800 votes that the Conservatives would need to take the day.
    Elections in the North tend to hold little resemblance to southern elections, so even if Conservative fortunes are declining elsewhere, this might be a seat they could hope to pick up. I won't make a projection either way, though, because if there really is a silent majority forming in the Yukon, we southerners will be the last to hear of it!
    09 08 23 Observer
    Yukon does not elect a Conservative MP since 1984. Conservatives are weak in the North and particularly in this riding. In the other hand, Larry Bagnell is certainly to be Liberal minister for Northern affais in the case Liberals form the next government.
    09 08 20 R.O.
    i disagree with calling this one so soon for the liberals even though Larry Bagnell has been mp for a number of years, why cause Harper and his advisors are too smart to waste an entire day touring this riding if it was in fact that solid of a liberal riding . in the last election the conservatives came in a solid second here and have been increasing there share of the vote here significantly since the 2004 election and now overtaken the ndp for second place here so i definitely see it being an interesting race again.
    09 08 19 Observer
    Yukon is now a solid Liberal territory. Gone are the days when the NDP was the leading party here.

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