Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-09-19 14:12:00

Constituency Profile


Causton, Christopher

Giesbrecht, Jared

Hunt, Patrick

Savoie, Denise

Denise Savoie

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • victoria (240/240 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 21 Dr. J.
    I just want to correct something I said in an earlier post. Oak Bay is now home to lots of Causton signs. Even in Causton's home territory (he is mayor of Oak Bay), however, they are outnumbered 2 to 1 or, at best, 3 to 2 by NDP signs. But if you cross the municipal border into Victoria, Causton signs are hard to find. He is simply not know there despite being Chair of the regional district. There is a chance that the Liberals will move back into second place in this riding, but Savoie is in no trouble.
    11 04 11
    Saanich Gulf Islands is the prime example of the need for proportional representation.
    Gary Lunn wins this one every time because of the division of the vote among the other parties. I don't recall him winning with more than 30 something per cent of the vote. So the majority of the constituents vote against him but can't boot him out. Solution a rallying cry to Liberals and NDP supporters to vote Green.
    By the way SGI is the only riding in Canada where the green have won ballot boxes.
    Come election night, if the results from the Gulf Islands come first, Elizabeth May will be in the lead, no question about it. It is in Saanich that a change must occur in order for her to win the riding.
    That being said, she needs to make a score of 35-40% to claim victory.
    11 04 02 Dr. J.
    I agree with earlier posters who have said that there has been strategic voting in this riding. (My wife leans Liberal, but has recently voted for Savoie.) Liberals will again vote NDP to keep the tory out. The interesting wrinkle here is that the Liberal Causton is mayor of Oak Bay, and may pick up some votes in that part of riding. That said, I have seen precisely one Causton sign in all of Oak Bay (where I live). As well, he is as likely -- or more -- to pick up tory voters in Oak Bay as he is to attract people who have previously voted NDP. In contrast to the paucity of Causton signs, some blocks of Oak Bay are thick with Savoie signs. Easy NDP hold.
    11 03 30 M. Lunn
    As an urban riding with a large civil service this area is quite left wing. It went Liberal in the 90s largely due to the decline of the NDP provincially who were polling at half their current levels in BC as they are now. In fact it was one of the few and the only in 2000 riding in the 250 area code to not vote for the Reform/Alliance parties and considering no poll puts the Tories at the 49% the Alliance got in 2000 in BC, I cannot see them winning this. I suspect most Tory campaign workers will focus on holding Saanich-Gulf Islands and picking up Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca as opposed to this which is a lost cause.
    09 09 16 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    In the last election Liberal voters did not sit at home, they switched to the NDP. The CPC gained only 1000 votes in this riding when both the NDP and the Liberals were down in BC in '08. Unless one of the other parties gets a great candidate or if Denise Savoie does something dumb during the campaign, she will easily be re-elected.
    09 09 13 David Y.
    When Denise Savoie first ran in 2006, she won over the second-place Liberal by 6787 votes.
    When she ran in 2008, she won by 10,086 over the Conservative candidate.
    An easy NDP hold!
    09 09 07 MF
    I don't know why Victoria is deemed TCTC. Denise Savoie won it by very wide margins in '06 and '08. NDP hold.
    09 08 26 Haligonian Political Junkie
    Victoria should remain safely in Denise Savoie's hands. The NDP won by a 17% margin over the Conservatives in 2008 and their share of the vote went up. The NDP benefited far more from the collapse (or rather further collapse) of the Liberal vote here in 2008 too, gaining twice as many fleeing Liberals as the Tories and Greens combined. Even if the Conservatives were to enter majority government territory, Victoria would remain NDP. The just isn't evidence that the Tories have enough potential room for growth here. Only a collapse in NDP fortunes ala 1993 would flip Victoria now.
    09 08 26 Insider
    A popular MP here who had more votes than the combined total of the next two opponents. This is an easy hold for the incumbent.
    09 08 26 JJ
    I disagree with the hyperbolic notion that Denise Savoie is ‘fiendishly popular’ because both the Conservatives and Liberal candidates have had decent showings in this riding since 2006. However, I do agree that Savoie has this riding pretty much locked up.
    09 08 24 MJA
    The reason the Liberals did well in Victoria was because of David Anderson. He's been a representative for the city at various levels of government on and off since the 70s, and he did a fairly good job, even winning as a Liberal MLA in an era when Liberal MLAs simply weren't elected in British Columbia. With him out of the picture, the seat is trending back to where it was in the 70s and 80s. In this corner, we have the Conservative-voting retirees and seniors, the military spillover from Esquimault, and the final vestiges of the old money and Victorian Victorians who still enjoy high tea every weekday and twice on Sundays. In this corner, we have the high population of unionized civil servants, the students in and around UVic, the new media economy forming downtown and the usual left-coast hippies. Two will enter, one will leave--but with the NDP doing all right in BC and the Conservatives in decline, it would take a surprising result to dislodge the fiendishly popular Denise Savoie, and with the Liberal vote likely to decline even further now that David Anderson is an increasingly distant memory, her position is only further solidified.

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