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Constituency Profile
Candidates:
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Benham, Roger | |
Braun, Maggie | |
Cullen, Nathan Paul | |
Harmon, Clay | |
Taylor, Rod | |
Warwick, Kyle |
Incumbent: |
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Nathan Cullen |
Previous Prediction/result
2008 Prediction
2006 Prediction
2004 Prediction
2000 Prediction
Reference:
Pundits’ Guide
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| 11 04 16 |
M. Lunn 174.116.190.108 |
The NDP are strong along the coast where you have a large labour union presence and also amongst aboriginals who make up about 1/3 of this riding. The Tories do well in the Bulkley Valley. The reason this will stay NDP is Nathan Cullen is quite popular personally as well as the Liberal voters here no they have no chance so I expect him to pick up many Green and Liberal votes. The Tories may get as high as 40%, but they won't win this and they could get as low as 30% on the other hand. |
| 11 04 08 |
C.A.B. 76.70.89.95 |
On the one hand, the reason the NDP did so well here last time was because the vote was very strongly polarized: neither the Liberals nor the Greens were anywhere near getting their deposit back, and who knows if the NDP will be able to maintain that level of consolidation. On the other, Nathan Cullen is a star and future leadership contender, and won here even in 2004, with the Liberals over 20%. Therefore, I'm willing to predict that Cullen will hold here, and may even withstand a decimation of his caucus, as his fellow BC Interior New Democrat MP, Nelson Riis, did in 1993. |
| 11 04 05 |
M. Lunn 174.116.190.108 |
Although the Tories have some strength in the inland portions, the coastal areas go heavily NDP due to their large rate of unionization as well as this riding is 1/3 aboriginal who the NDP does well amongst. The only thing I could see causing this to change is the gun registry which is deeply unpopular here and despite the fact Nathan Cullen voted to scrap it many rightly or wrongly assume it can only be scrapped with a Tory majority. Nevertheless, Nathan Cullen is a hardworking and well respected MP thus this is his to lose. |
| 11 03 25 |
WAC 99.230.244.3 |
Cullen won by about 5,000 votes the last two elections - given the polls I can't see this drastically changing. |
| 09 08 23 |
Observer 89.180.69.237 |
The NDP is the leading party here since 2004, and Nathan Cullen was reelected in 2006 and 2008 with good numbers. Right now don't expect any change. |
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