Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-08-27 11:20:00

Constituency Profile


Aitchison, Betty

Bush, Brent

Green, Bill

Shmigelsky, Mark

Wilks, David

Jim Abbott

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • kootenay-columbia (180/180 Polls)
  • kootenay-boundary-okanagan (12/199 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 30 VancouverIslander
    I agree with Lowlander that this is an NDP pick up...Abbott was a good local candidate who is not much in support of the CPC line these days and lets people know that...the provincial ndp organization is out in force here.
    11 04 28 S.G.
    TCTC. There is a lot of buzz about the orange wave in this riding, which used to alternate between the Tories and the NDP prior to the 1993 rise of Reform. There is a lot of overlap with provincial NDP ridings here, but also quite a bit of interest in the Greens. The Green vote may drain enough NDP support to keep this in the Tory fold.
    11 04 07 KH
    I wouldn't completely disregard the ability of NDP candidate Mark to beat the tories. This riding used to be a big battle zone between the NDP and Conservatives until Abbott came along. Keep in mind that three of the four provincial constituencies in this riding vote NDP.
    The Liberal candidate in this riding is a non-starter. IF Mark can ally the left vote and rural NDP advantage, this riding could come into play. BC Southern Interior is now a relatively steady NDP riding now after the tories lost on race.
    This is a riding that I would keep some attention before just predicting that it will be a Conservative hold.
    11 04 01 J.Mc.
    I see former NDP candidate Brent Bush has declared as an independent. This will only split the NDP vote, to the further advantage of the Tories. Even if the Liberals are ‘undercut’, they haven't been much of a factor in this riding for over 40 years, so I don't think the current NDP candidate's Liberal roots would make much of a difference. A further boon to the Tories is that Wilks is from Sparwood - a union mining town that has generally leaned NDP in the past.
    So, like I said before, Abbott's choice not to run again will only have us asking if the Tories will break 50% as opposed to 60%.
    11 03 30 M. Lunn
    Even without Jim Abbott, the margins the NDP has to overcome is too big. The Tories will lose some votes, but not enough to cost them their seat. The NDP is strong around Revelstoke, but much of the rest of the riding is quite Conservative including the largest town, Cranbrook. The NDP's strength in the Kootenays is in the West Kootenays (which is located in British Columbia Southern Interior) not the East Kootenays which this riding includes.
    11 03 30 Lowlander
    If Abbott were running again, I'd be putting Conservative here, no question, and they're the presumptive favourites. Even so, I think Shmigelsky can take this for the NDP. As a former Liberal candidate (back in 1997) he undercuts the Liberals in the riding, and without Abbott I don't think the Conservatives are going to get anywhere near what they did last time. Shmigelsky's Liberal past does play in to Harper's narrative about Evil Coalitions, of course, but anyone who buys into that wouldn't be voting NDP or Liberal anyway.
    10 08 06 J.Mc.
    While Abbott's retirement is not bad news for the NDP, I still don't think that will tip it their way. After Abbott, what was always a competitive Riding before, is now solidly Conservative. The only difference will be that, now, the Tory will get in with 50%, instead of 60%.
    10 03 06 R.O.
    Well its true that long time conservative mp Jim Abbott has announced his retirement , we must keep in mind that this is one of the most conservative ridings in bc and been a seat where they've got over 50% of the vote in every election since 2004. so the opposition has a large margin to overcome here and i'd only really see the ndp having a chance here if there were a by-election as they would need less physical votes to win than during a general election and by-elections in bc usually go against the government but there isn't going to be one cause Jim Abbott is staying as mp till the next election. we also don't know for sure who any of the major parties candidates will be here but if the conservatives find a good candidate they maintain the advantage here. a few names have come forward possibly interested in nominations including Bill Bennett for the conservatives and oddly former ndp candidate Brent Bush wants to run for the liberals now.
    10 02 22 Acadien
    Abbot has announced he won't be running again. With no incumbent, this riding is in play
    09 09 03 J.Mc.
    I've said it before, and I'll say it again - Abbott is still pretty popular, this is a socially conservative riding, and Elk Valley labour doesn't have the clout it used to. Conservative hold. The only real question is whether the Liberal or the Green get third place.
    09 08 26 JJ
    A typical rural Conservative riding. The NDP have a decent presence here, but they are far behind from winning it. CPC hold for sure.
    09 08 26 Sean P.F.
    Rural British Columbia is Conservative Country. While they have lost ground in Skeena-Bulkley Valley and BC Southern Interior, every other riding is a safe Conservative victory.

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