Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca

Prediction Changed
2011-05-01 09:06:00

Constituency Profile


DeSouza, Troy

Garrison, Randall C.

Lesosky, Louis James

Porter, Christopher Robert

Salsman, Shaunna

Szpak, Lillian

Hon. Keith Martin

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • esquimalt-juan-de-fuca (209/209 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 05 01 Marco Ricci
    Project Democracy poll gives a bit of an edge to the Conservatives, but a late surge in BC for the NDP may change that so this may still be close:
    CON: 40.4
    NDP: 34.6
    LIB: 15.4
    GREEN: 9.6
    11 04 30 Esquimalt Voter
    Esquimalt's local community paper Esquimalt Review has gone out on a limb to predict a Randall Garrison victory as part of the Jack Layton NDP wave. When it doubt, locals know best! This one will go to the NDP, but they have to have an extremely good ground game to pull it off on Monday as it won't be easy. It won't be a comfortable win by any stretch, but it will still be a win.
    11 04 30 VancouverIslander
    Garrison has this in the bag for the NDP. I dont know anyone from this riding who isnt planning to vote that way, and in the key population centres (Langford, Colwood, View Royal, Esquimalt) the private property signs are overwhelming. The poll cited wasnt sampled for controls on demographic etc. factors...and at 300 sample size is useless. Garrison has been impressive in all of the all candidate meetings, which had record attendance.
    11 04 29 WAC
    A poll release by project democracy shows De Souza leading Garrison by a 6 point margin (40.4 to 34.6). 400 people survey - 4.9+/- MOE. Should be close and it wouldn't shock me if the NDP took it, but looks like a Conservative gain.
    11 04 29 BJ
    Project Democracy has released 9 federal riding polls, each with a sample size of 400, and one of them is EJDF as follows:
    CPC - 40.4%
    NDP - 34.6%
    Liberal - 15.4%
    Green - 9.6%
    11 04 29 Bernard von Schulmann
    A poll is out and it has a huge for the Conservatives
    Troy DeSousa Conservative - 40.4%
    Randall Garrison NDP - 34.6%
    Lillian Szpak Liberal - 15.4%
    Shauna Salsman Green - 9.6%
    400 respondents +-4.85% at the 95% level
    11 04 29 Steve T
    Drove past a group of Conservatives lining the side of the road at the Mackenzie intersection this morning with signs reading ‘Honk for the Mackenzie Interchange’ and ‘Honk if you support Troy’. Despite being crammed in bumper to bumper and going about 10km/hr, I didn't hear a single toot as I went by. I don't normally drive downtown for work, but these people should be the very people Troy is trying to sway with his single campaign issue, no?
    11 04 28 VicRK
    One thing that hasn't been discussed is the potential bounce from the recent BCNDP leadership race. John Horgan (provincial Juan de Fuca MLA) signed up a lot of members in this whole area. When you sign up for the NDP provincially, you also become a member federally. That gives Garrison's campaign team potentially hundreds of new members on their contact sheets to pull vote from.
    11 04 26 Mike
    Catch 22 Campaign has now endorsed Randall Garrison as the candidate to beat the Conservatives. With Keith Martin gone, the NDP strategic votes will return and they will bring Liberals with them. Plus Jack Layton's soaring poll numbers will create a snowball effect where people realize that they have been lied to; you can vote for the NDP and not have a wasted vote.
    11 04 23 From the Left Coast
    Keith as a LIB had always about 20,000 vote, with Tory right at 19,974 and NDP 13,332 last election. If any votes are going to move, it will be the bleeding Lib vote. Since the Tory has gone up the last 3 elections, and lets assume they are holding steady, the NDP will need about 6000-7000 votes extra to make a difference.
    The Lib are not going to win this to be frank, it will be a close fight between Tory and NDP. CON-gain.
    11 04 23 Teddy Boragina
    The NDP is gaining in BC. This riding is one of the first few that would tip to the NDP if they can manage to hold on in the polls.
    11 04 23 Mike S
    You're right Stevo, this was a Keith Martin riding that will go back to Conservative. The Liberals are sinking and the NDP is moving upwards but mostly in Quebec. Because of the NDP upsurge Jack Layton and his policies will be on the receiving end of greater scrutiny this week. I think we will see that many of his policies are just too expensive. Sure we like some of the ideas but not the cost
    11 04 22 Stevo
    With Keith Martin gone and the ascendent NDP siphoing off Liberal votes, this riding is finally set for a Conservative win.
    11 04 21 KDH
    This riding is one of the few that hasn't got a solid consensus among the 'left' as to who the ABC (Anyone But Conservative) candidate is. For example Catch 22 hasn't put forward a recommendation for this riding: http://catch22campaign.ca/notes
    Even if Lillian isn't Keith Martin, she's still with the incumbent party brand. It's silly to think the Liberals aren't at least somewhat relevant in this race. But overall, I think this is a definite three way race that is leaning Conservative, partially because the NDP has not completely established themselves as the strategic 'ABC vote' in this riding.
    11 04 20 Political Pundent
    With Jack Layton the only party leader who has a positive effect on
    his party standings,liberal candidate and Langford Councilor calling Troy DeSouza out on some lies on his website for projects he taking credit
    for obtaining funding and assume the latest poll numbers putting the
    NDP in first place in BC and Quebec hold up I would call this riding
    for NDP candidate Randall Garrison. The riding overlaps 3 provincial
    ridings all held by the NDP so if they pick up a seat on the island
    this I believe will be it!
    11 04 21 Gone Fishing
    The Tory candidate is a third time campaigner and has grown his support significantly - barely losing to Martin last time.
    Hey, Martin is a young guy with pedigree anyone else think he was smart enough to see the end of the line?
    11 04 19 Austin Gatensbury
    Cherry-picking one poll among many and than basing your prediction on its province breakdown (high margin of error) is incredibly weak evidence.
    Too close to call and will be one to watch on election night. I'd say the Conservatives have the edge but could lose it if the NDP maintains momentum.
    11 04 19
    Liberal support in BC according Nanos is tied with the Tories..THis seat will; stay Liberal
    11 04 19 bcsaltchucker
    I am a Liberal to the core, but I cannot see this seat staying Liberal. It is itching to go Conservative. It has been a Keith Martin riding forever, and it was a conservative (Reform/alliance) banner that won it for him originally. When Keith went Liberal he held on by a threadbare margin. He is gone and DeSouza knows that the biggest complaint in the westshore is the Mackenzie interchange which he promises to solve (what, more pork-barelling Harper??).
    The riding has attracted more and more emigrees from Alberta since Langford is one of the faster growing city in Canada and has a lot of that suburban/rural feel which appeals to folks from the prairies. We all know how Albertans vote. They are enough to overcome the native Victorian NDP vote. I may have to consider a strategic vote for NDP, but as a fiscal conservative that grates on me a lot.
    11 04 18 Rob
    Conservatives only lost this riding by 68 votes in 2008 against a popular MP, it was never a Liberal seat but rather a Keith Martin seat. He is not running again so the Libs will go down to 20-25%, the NDP will retake 2nd place with 25-30%. The Conservatives are running the same person again and will get 35-40%, w/ the left over going to the Greens and independants.
    11 04 18 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Not so long ago we would have said TCTC between the CPC and the NDP with this race leaning CPC. Now we're not so sure. With Liberals up THAT MUCH since '08 and CPC down in BC and with all three major parties hosting well known candidates this may be a more complex race than we first realized.
    11 04 17 Political Watchdog
    I have just seen a poll specific to this riding I do not know how scientific it is but it shows the liberal candidate way ahead of conservative candidate Troy DeSouza who see to be pretty much a one issue candidate: McKenzie overpass it seems that Randall Garrison benefited from an anti-liberal vote in 2004 and 2006 and Lillian Szpak is benefiting from anti-conservative votes but I am not ready to call the riding for her just yet as a lot depends on how well she identifies her supporters and gets them out on E-day
    11 04 17 KDH
    If you take a look at the Poll by Poll results of Esquimalt - Juan de Fuca, you can actually see that Keith Martin was saved by NDP voters at the last minute who supported him to stop Troy Desouza from winning. This is clear if you look at the poll by poll results of where support came from and depressed--with the biggest factor affecting Keith being the overall low turnout and support of the Liberals in BC in 2008.
    This time around, it is clear that the NDP voters have no interest in voting Liberal and aggressively campaigning for Garrison with their eyes for a pickup.
    I don't think the Liberal vote will plummet as much as people think it will. Quite a few reputable predictions actually give the Liberals the edge here, mainly because provincial polling for the Liberals has come up so much.
    I honestly believe that why are still seeing what will be a three way race between both parties. I do not believe the NDP will pickup the strategic Keith vote as much as they think they will to get the numbers for a win in this riding. They are forgetting that the 'Keith' vote was no necessarily a left wing anti-harper vote. Keith was known by many in the area as a 'maverick' MP who was well liked by many Libertarian-ish voters... such as many you can find in the Navy base here. These are not NDP voters.
    When you slice up this electoral pie, it's hard to believe that Troy Desouza will lose this vote. I know far too many observers who tell me this is the Liberal race to lose, while others say this is an NDP-Tory race. If the Conservatives gain seats this election, this will surely be one of their most viable pickups still IMO.
    Does anyone have information to riding-specific polling for this area?
    11 04 16 p. kelly
    This was a Keith Martin seat...not a Liberal seat, an Alliance seat, or Reform seat. Now that Martin has stepped down, this seat will return to a familiar Conservative vs NDP tilt; and the edge goes to the NDP. Polling province wide shows the federal tories about 10 points off their 2008 tally; and in marginal seats like this one, that spells NDP win.
    11 04 14 MAC
    Numerous local experts are calling this election to be between the Conservatives and the NDP (UVic political science professor Denis Pilon: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zjVfOMmLE1A#t=1m07s). With Martin gone, and the Liberal candidate relatively unknown, the voting will revert back to its historical roots. However, I believe that it will go to Garrison, especially with the current distaste for the Conservatives in this riding.
    11 04 14 keefr
    Strong provincial NDP support doesn't always translate to federal support, but I do think the voters will go for Garrison this time. The Liberals will be a complete non-factor as the won based on Keith Martin's name recognition alone. NDP by 500 over the Tories.
    11 04 13 KDH
    Three Hundred Eight has this riding as a Liberal win. I don't necessarily agree with their analysis, but it's worth looking at. In particular according to his analysis, the Liberal vote is generally stronger now in BC than it was when Keith Martin came within 80 votes of losing to Troy Desouza. Candidate recognition is not necessarily as strong as you may think it is, and it's feasible for the Liberals to retain the support they had in the past with Keith to win it.
    This is going to be likely a tight three way race between all three parties.
    11 04 08 political watchdog
    I also believe this riding has been put in Troy DeSouza's camp too early. First of all not only do the NDP have a much stronger candidate than they did in 2008 Troy's close call in unseating Keith Martin was in part by the overall drop in liberal support nationally last time. Secondly the liberals are running a strong candidate who happens to be a 3rd term city councilor in Langford and I am betting both the Liberal and NDP candidates will challenge Troy on some of his outlandish claims on his website that he hand a hand in getting federal funding for just about anything and everything in the riding including a waterfront condo development in the community of Sooke which was likely private not public money. Everything but the yet to exist Mackenzie overpass. Randall Garrison might score political points challenging Troy D to explain how it would be the magic solution to the Colwood crawl or what makes him so sure if he is part of a conservative government his party leader won't tell him to get at the end of the line. Given how much Troy D is campaigning on this issue such challenges could even sink Troy DeSouza's boat! At best this is TCTC it might even be a 3 year nail biter
    11 04 09 Guy Concordia
    I really don't think that the Troy DeSouza will take this. Although Troy managed to win nearly 20,000 last time, Randall Garrison managed to win nearly 18,600 votes in 2006 - a difference of only 1,400.
    Have a look at how the riding voted in 2008: http://tinyurl.com/42mslye
    A lot of the Liberal/Keith support came from Esquimalt and Southwest Saanich, which naturally leans NDP. Some of this ‘Keith’ support will go to Troy, but I think that most of it will go to Randall. Also, some ‘Liberal’ voters will probably vote for Randall strategically to stop Troy from winning.
    This riding is probably at best TCTC for Troy, but I think Randall will win.
    11 04 08 DL
    I think its a big mistake to project this seat as going Conservative. At best it is TCTC. The Liberal vote will evaporate and mostly go NDP since this is a very left-leaning part of the province (both provincial seats here go NDP by 2-1 margins). Garrison came very close in 2004 and 2006 - and with Keith Martin out of the picture he will scoop up a lot of that Martin personal vote.
    11 04 08 Andrew
    No doubt that this is a close NDP/Conservative race. Only went Liberal the past several elections due to Keith Martin's personal popularity. Randall Garrison (current NDP Candidate and popular City Councillor) came close to taking it from Martin in 2006, and Troy DeSouza (current Conservative Candidate) was within votes of winning in 2008 - but Randall wasn't running then.
    My prediction is that Randall Garrison has the profile in the riding to beat DeSouza. It's absurd that you're currently calling this for the Conservatives.
    11 04 05 Political Watchdog
    News Flash both the liberals and the NDP have strong candidates who are city councillors in Langford and Esquimalt respectively. Troy DeSouza in putting to much stake into one issue the: Mckenzie Overpass. Not the whole riding would be concerned with that or that only Troy can get the funding. He claims to have gotten funding for just about everything and he is likely just talking through his arse. I am sure he will crumble when the Liberal and NDP and may the Green Party candidate challenge and call him on his political puffery and not to mention Harper's hypocrisy on coalitions and the those cheques with party logos. Randal Garrison will likely benefit the most as he is a council, college professor and finished 2nd twice despite being out spent by John Koury and Troy. After all the riding as two provincial NDP MLA's and Keith Martin held it so long cause he's a doctor not cause of his political stripes. The main reason Troy got as close as he did last time was cause a) the liberal supporters mainly stayed home and the NDP ran a candidate who just moved in.
    11 04 05 M. Lunn
    The Liberals will lose this, especially when considering prior to 2004, the last time they won this was 1968 during Trudeaumania. The question is which party it will go far. The Tories almost won this and Keith Martin was a former Reform/Alliance member thus generally centre-right in his views. By the same token, it was the NDP in 2004 and 2006 who nearly won this and provincially this is solidly NDP so a lot will depend on where the personal Keith Martin votes go to. I expect both the Tories and NDP to increase their share of the popular vote, but too early to tell who will win, although I would be shocked it either the NDP or Tories got under 30% while surprised if the Liberals get over 30%.
    11 04 04 Saanich resident
    DeSouza nearly made it in 2008 against former Reform Party-er Martin. Without a strong Liberal or NDP candidate this year, I'd be shocked if the Conservatives didn't win this riding.
    11 04 03 jeff316
    This is going to be tight. The question is: will national trends favour Conservatives, or the local trends favour the NDP? With a good campaign and national momentum, the Conservatives could pick this one up. If their vote dips nationally, the NDP may just make it enough of a local campaign to win. The Liberals will be the spoilers.
    11 04 02 Tony
    Its a close call. I think there is a fair amount of bitterness from those who drive the colwood crawl each day so anything to alleviate that mess will be welcomed. People who say the proposed overpass isnt green have never driven that corridor. How many tons of hydrocarbons are spent idling by the thousands of cars each day? Yes light rail would be welcomed as well, but i think all of this misses the point... Why does everyone drive into Victoria? In this day and age, why are we not telecommuting? Where are the local business zones where people could walk to work from nearby homes or simply take the stairs from their high density housing down to the main level where the shops/offices are? I think there are models all over the world for this, this isn't new stuff.
    11 04 01 Political Watchdog
    You cannot predict that Troy will win based on last election's results.
    First of all his close finish to Keith Martin was due mainly to the drop in overall voter turn out. Most of the Liberal supporters just stayed home. Keith Martin has given 18 years of his life serving the public. Before Keith won the riding for the reform party in 1993 it was an NDP riding and Randall Garrison who ran 2wice before finished 2nd each time despite being outspent by both Conservative candidates one being Troy DeSouza on his first campaign. And the Liberal candidate is not an unknown she has been on Langford City Council for almost 9 years and doesn't have to ride anyone's coat tails. If anyone is a virtual unknown it is the green party candidate she has the most work cut out for her and the most likely in need of riding her party leader's coat tail.
    11 03 31 North Saanich resident
    Colwood and Langford are the battle zones here. With 10% population growth annually and most of the constituency's population with Esquimalt they will tip the balance versus the leafier areas of Metchosin, Highlands and the west side of Saanich. The liberal vote will drop with the departure of Keith Martin, who was the nice guy candidate for people without political affiliations and if the NDP campaign smart they will pick them up. Colwood and Langford voters are mostly lower income workers having to commute in horrible conditions to Victoria and the Saanich peninsula. Public transit, affordable housing, youth and community services, small business supports are the big issues, and they align with Garrison's campaign. One piece of advice so, get high profile campaign events into the ‘West Shore’ and out of Victoria. Victoria campaigning has no impact on this constituency.
    11 03 30 M. Lunn
    This was a Keith Martin riding, not a Liberal one. In fact prior to 2004, this hadn't gone Liberal since 1968 during Trudeaumania and in most cases the Liberals came in third. The Liberal will lose this, but the question is to whom. The Tories almost won last time around and Keith Martin was initially part of the Reform/Alliance, however in 2004 and 2006, it was the NDP, not the Tories who challenged Keith Martin. Likewise provincially, this area is solidly NDP. The Liberal vote will decline so a lot depends on which direction it goes.
    11 03 30 binriso
    Clearly this was a Martin seat and not a Liberal seat, and as such I think they will lose a lot of votes, probably to below 20%. The Greens will likely be a bit higher since May is running nearby at about 10 percent. That leaves 75% for the CPC and NDP and with the CPC likely not getting 44.4% of the vote this election in the province, that leaves them around 35 in this riding which means the NDP squeaks by at somewhere around 35-40. In 2006, both candidates ran against eachother and the NDP were in 2nd by about 2500 votes when the CPC were 9 points up provincewide and it should be much closer than the 19 of last time.
    11 03 29 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    Martin is gone, and this riding will return to it's right-wing base. While the NDP has indeed had strength here before, that was another era.
    11 03 28 John
    One thing working in favour of the Conservatives here is that the Liberals and the NDP tend to split the left wing vote. And this time around, there is no incumbent either. The Greens will also siphon off a few votes from the Liberals and NDP as well.
    Doesn't mean strategic voting couldn't give this seat to a left of centre paryt, probably the Liberals.
    I think what will happen is this. It will be a squeaker, but the Conservatives just might pick this one up on election day.
    11 03 26 Grant McLachlan
    Oh, Conservatives… what a funny bunch you are. Bare with me fair readers, I have to dispel fiction when I find it, especially when is talking to his or herself down there.
    To begin, Troy has as much political pull as I do, and that’s not saying much. His word really means nothing right now, so how could he have brought about great changes to our community without an elected office? The answer: he couldn’t have. The gun registry is not an issue in Esquimalt – Juan de Fuca, and I should know, I live here. It may fire up Conservatives, but it failed to ignite the electorate’s attention span, and that’s bad news if you political stripe is blue. Finally, if you have bothered to read Troy’s many mail outs to everyone his number one issue is the Mackenzie Overpass. It has no funding from municipal governments, the provincial government, and seeing as Harper likes to spend more money on helping big business, jails and jets to even consider such a useless infrastructure project, I wouldn't count on it. Now Election Prediction Project fans, let’s compare this to the competent party in all of this. The party that voted against the HST, the party that opposed corporate tax cuts, and the party that wants commuter rail here in Esquimalt – Juan de Fuca. That is Randall Garrison and the NDP, and they will provide practical, affordable solutions to the problems we face all in the quest to create a prosperous and green Canada that won’t leave middle class families behind.
    11 03 25 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Case in point. That last posting with the bit about the long gun registry sounded like a transcirption of the radio ad from last year. Lots of spin.
    11 03 24
    The EJDF riding has a large contingency of sports fisherman and hunters. It is also the home of the Island Rangers who are strongly FOR responsible licensing and training for firearms, and AGAINST the wasteful gun registry which does nothing to reduce crime. This is not a dead issue. Legal long gun owners have not forgotten the betrayal of Dr. Keith Martin and the NDP on last year's vote. Troy de Souza (Conservative candidate) is the only one who has said he will champion their cause.
    11 03 24 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Hmm...sounds like Conservative partisans are here trying to spread the word that the election is all the oppositions fault, and nobody wanted it, and so on and so forth. Maybe they're right. But it's far more prudent to watch the shape of the election. The conservatives do have a candidate that fared well in the past. As do the NDP. BC has a habit of bucking national trends. Have to wait and see before can give a reliable prediction.
    11 03 23 Allen
    Dr. Martin could obviously see the writing on the wall with Troy DeSouza's very close call last election and has decided to step down and retire from politics and go home to enjoy his MP pension. This time around the Liberals will be running a virtually unknown candidate who will attempt to ride on the coat-tails of Dr. Martin's previous record, and although Randall Garrison has had some previous support in this riding I predict that Troy DeSouza will easily win the riding with a very comfortable margin. I also think that there will be some anger expressed by the voters against the Liberal and NDP candidates due to the huge cost of a Federal election that was really not needed or wanted right now ...
    11 03 23
    I predict this riding will go Conservative. The Opposition's dismissal of the budget, in spite of concessions made, will infuriate the electorate. Troy DeSouza has a proven record of getting action for this riding (JDF Senior's expansion, Archie Browning Arena upgrades, Sooke Marina development, etc.) After 18 years of MP Liberal Dr. Martin, it's high time this riding had a voice in Ottawa.
    10 12 03 George Sifton
    Even as a Liberal Keith took some of the Conservative vote with him. Now these votes will some home. This will be a two party race with the Liberals out of contention. The edge goes to Troy.
    10 11 14 Grant McLachlan
    With Keith Martin's resignation, I'd expect Esquimalt Councillor and former federal NDP candidate Randall Garrison to make a decision on running soon. As for Troy De Souza now being the self-declared ?front runner?, he might want to remember Garrison beat him once before.
    10 11 10 binriso
    Now that there is no incumbent, I think the NDP will pick this seat up by a thin margin over the Conservatives, doubt the CPC will gain much in BC being that they were at 45% last time and likely will lose a few points. Plus if there is a byelection soon, the recent issues with the Campbell government can only help the NDP and hurt the other main parties.
    10 11 09
    Keith Martin has just announced he won't be standing for re-election the next time voters go to the polls.
    The H.S.T. debacle won't be winning the 'Liberal' or Conservatives much new support.
    This means this riding, a three-way race otherwise, becomes a two-way NDP/Conservative race once the New Democrats announce their candidate.
    An NDP pick-up next time!
    10 11 09 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    This one has just got very interesting! Keith Martin will not run in the next election. Open riding in a three-way race! Our opinion at the moment is that the Liberals will not hold this riding as a good chunk of the vote was for Martin and not them. Given the scenario, we may hedge our bets and say NDP pick up but would rather wait until we know who the NDP standard bearer is. HST isn't boding well and the NDP is reaping the benefits. CPC have a chance too, plenty of support for them in BC but they are not doing well in the polls at the moment. Might see a situation much like Saanich Gulf Islands, where we get a four way race with the Greens involved too. Bottom line, too close to call!
    10 11 09 Mark
    Now that Keith Martin has announced today that he is not running, this riding will not be held by the Liberals. Further to this, I understand the NDP candidate will be a star for the party?.and with the HST debacle, I suspect this will be a gain for the NDP.
    10 08 21 Grant McLachlan
    The Liberals, Conservatives and even the Greens are going to love the NDP candidate here. You'll find out who it is in November.
    10 05 16 binriso
    Just the mere fact that the words ‘Green Shift/Carbon Tax’ wont be mentioned this campaign will be enough to hold this seat away from the Conservatives. The NDP are fairly close too but the incumbent should hold on.
    09 10 05 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Going to provisionally call it for the Liberals. Keith Martin is personally popular and this is why he's been able to hold on ever since jumping ship back when the PC and CA merged. The HST isn't going over so well in BC and this could be the CPC Achilles heel in this province. If the HST turned out to be nothing much then Keith could be in trouble.
    09 09 17 R.O.
    This was one of the closest races on election night in western canada in 2008 and likely to be a close race again so i'm not going to make a solid prediction. but i'm not really convinced liberal numbers have improved much out west so i don't think there secure here yet. i think Keith Martin held on here due to his name recognition and profile in the riding not the liberal brand itself as i don't feel this riding is even that liberal at all. and if not for his defection in 2004 would be held by a conservative mp today instead which could of been him. as for the future race here the conservatives are running Troy Desouza again and have brought in a number of cabinet ministers to the riding so he is likely to run a strong campaign here . no idea what the ndp are doing as that have some support in the riding as well and a factor.
    09 09 11 MCarl
    the tory candidate just mailed out an election pamphlet to every house and everyone is upset by it. Even some die-hard conservatives have said they are not voting for him this time. Martin's slim victory was more about Dion than it was about him. He'll win by 3000 votes this time.
    09 09 02 pollwerker
    Martin squeeked by last time with the Conservatives leading the Liberals by 25 points in BC. That margin has been cut to 8 points. The Liberals have more money to advertise than they did in '08. Also the Conservative advantage in targetting ridings is reduced as they will be playing defense in much of the country. Also tricks to move money to target specific ridings are no longer going to be tolerated.
    09 09 01 Mike
    Under Stéphane Dion, Liberal support in BC plummeted and Keith barely managed to hold his seat. With Liberal support at normal levels, Keith should be able to hold this one.
    09 08 30 wyatt
    The Tories will steal one here. Martin held by only 68 votes last time, and the Tories will devote the appropriate resources to ensure they can take it. This is a seat that voted Reform/Alliance in three consecutive elections, so the grass roots are there for the Tories.
    09 08 27 NorthernRaven
    This will be Too Close to Call, a Martin held his riding by a mere 68 votes over the Conservative candidate DeSouza. If this election becomes a Majority push, expect a lot of Conservative resources to fight Martin. Martin has the advantage of holding the seat since being elected in 93 as a Reformer, but he better pull in some NDP and Green votes to keep his seat.

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