Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Wild Rose

Prediction Changed
2009-08-24 10:20:00

Constituency Profile


Horvath, Jeff

MacDonald, Mike

Reilly, John Douglas

Richards, Blake

Vanden Broek, Randy

Blake Richards

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • macleod (2/178 Polls)
  • red-deer (13/238 Polls)
  • wild-rose (175/251 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 18 LR
    The incumbent MP won the last election with 72.9% of the vote, a record for any candidate in the riding's history. Even in Canmore, the CPC won the majority of the polls and over 50% support. This year, the Conservative campaign opened a satellite office in Canmore, so their numbers may be higher yet.
    11 04 10 SouthpawPundit
    There's a reason that the Liberal vetting process for this riding is little more than a big red rubber stamp in a little black corner of the big red tent. I'd still Reilly over some of the nuts in Harper's caucus, but being a New Democrat from a Liberal stronghold in suburban Ottawa, the decision's not mine to make.
    11 04 07 Nate
    The only thing that will be interesting to see about this riding is if the Green Party can again beat out both the Liberals and the NDP, as well as in Macleod and Calgary Southeast.
    11 03 29 M. Lunn
    Communities such as Banff, Lake Louise, and Canmore are surprisingly competitive, but elsewhere the Tories get a minimum of 70% and in some cases over 80% thus their dominance elswhere will easily cancel out any weakness in the tourist areas near the Rocky Mountains. Much like how Teton County in Wyoming, Park County in Utah, and Blaine County in Idaho usually vote Democrat but those states always go massively Republican, thus Banff, Lake Louise, and Canmore are similiar to those counties in their impacts.
    09 11 09 binriso
    Another seat that is 'Blue Dog' to the core, or at least to the less than half of the electorate of Alberta that actually vote. The CPC in its current form will win it with ~70% of the vote.
    09 08 24 EP
    Regardless of the ups and downs of national trends, Alberta continues to favour the Conservative Party with 60% or more. That number can only be higher once we take Edmonton into account. Unless the Wildrose Alliance starts to field federal candidates, this rural Alberta riding wills stay in the “solidly Conservative column for the foreseeable future.

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