Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Edmonton Centre

Prediction Changed
2009-11-20 09:44:00

Constituency Profile


Cardinal, Lewis

Hawn, Laurie

MacDonald, Mary

Morton, Peggy

Parker, David James

Paulson, Mikkel

Laurie Hawn

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • edmonton-centre-east (17/239 Polls)
  • edmonton-southwest (51/212 Polls)
  • edmonton-west (178/240 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 30 Michael Fox
    Laurie Hahn had a significant margin of vicory last time. If there were a really stronger NDP candidate that Liberals united behind (like in Edmonton Strathcona), it would be close, but that's not happening this time.
    Conservatives by a 20% margin.
    11 04 29 T Mit
    I Think that people may be surprised with the results of this riding. Not only has the response for the Liberal candidate Mary MacDonald been overwhelmingly positive, But Mary has been endorsed by previous MP and deputy Prime Minister Anne McLellan, whose voice still strongly resonate with people in this riding. Mary has also received endorsement from the non-partisan website www.projectdemocracy.ca that appeals to progressive voters who want to defeat or prevent a conservative candidate win. This website has also endorsed Linda Duncan in Edmonton-Strathcona. Many people are realizing that this riding's best chance at defeating incumbent Laurie Hawn is to rally around Mary MacDonald. I do believe this will be a close a contest indeed and will be an interesting race to watch. However because of my personal experience with the constituents of this riding and the response I have observed I am going to have to put this riding in the Liberal column by a small margin.
    11 04 28 Non Partisan Observer
    At the start of the election I would have said this one was a slam dunk for Mr. Hawn, who, in my opinion, is a very good MP. I think Mr. Cardinal is also well known and respected, though. The national Liberal campaign is in an absolute disaster, however, and Ms. McDonald will pay the price for this locally. Orange Liberals will shift their votes to the NDP. The Greens may spoil the NDP party, though. Should be an interetsting riding to watch on election night. I think that either Mr. Hawn or Mr. Cardinal will do a good job representing the riding. Predictions should be bold, so I'll give this one to the NDP by less than 100 votes.
    11 04 28 miker
    I don't know if Laurie Hawn is campaigning less for this election but there are noticeably fewer ad-signs out for this election compared to previous ones. Many of the communities in this riding are also seeing the demographic shift of older generations passing away/moving into residences and younger families laying down their roots into the communities.
    While I don't believe any one candidate will take this riding in a landslide, I am inclined to think the race might just be too close to call (akin to past races in this riding) between the Conservatives & NDP.
    11 04 27 AR
    If there is any upset here, it will be Mary MacDonald winning the seat. The Liberals, NDP and Greens all have strong candidates. The left-wing split will ensure a Conservative victory unless the NDP is stealing votes from the Conservatives as equally as the Liberals. In Alberta, that is a doubtful occurence. Elsewhere, not so much.
    11 04 27 Anni C.
    Jim Lightbody, University of Alberta political science professor, has been predicting that if the NDP numbers can hold up in the province, Edmonton-East and Edmonton-Centre could go orange. This was before the latest two polls confirmed the NDP support at 28-30% nationwide.
    For these reasons, I predict NDP take this riding but at the very least it is too close to call now.
    11 04 27
    This riding could be the next in Alberta to go NDP. It will be very interesting to watch.
    11 04 26 pitcher
    Don't laugh but this is a riding where strategic voting will make a difference and the ND cnadidate is well known and well respected. It will be close but this will be the 3rd ND riding in Alberta.
    11 04 18 binriso
    Pretty certain CPC win but if the Liberals dont place second, and a decent second at that, then they are completely irrelevant in Edmonton and Alberta. This is their one competitive riding in the city and province and if they cannot maintain second place then they had better not even target any seat next time in the city or maybe even the province. The NDP would then be well positioned to offer themselves as the ONLY alternative to a Conservative party in the entirety of Alberta, not that they aren’t already the most credible alternative to the CPC in 80-90% of Western ridings.
    11 04 17 R.O.
    So Paul Martin comes out of hiding to predict liberal victories in Alberta seriously this borders on the ridiculous. Even when he was most popular the liberals barely won any seats in Alberta and this riding was still extremely close when Anne Mclellan was deputy pm. and Alberta is not angry at Harper maybe at Stelmach and provincial pc's , the federal conservatives still lead here by wide margins in province wide polls. the liberals lack any high profile candidates in Alberta other than that judge who likely has cost them many more votes nationwide than he gained for liberals in Wildrose. Laurie Hawn will easily hold this riding
    11 04 17 Jeff
    Laurie Hawn will easily win re-election. The interesting race to watch is whether Lewis Cardinal can continue the NDP rise in Edmonton and pass the Liberals candidate for second place.
    11 04 17 Frank
    This is going to be closer than people think. The conservatives and NDP haven't come to Alberta in a few weeks and I think people of this riding are angry as they are not respected. Ignatieff's recent visit with Martin garnered a lot of press.
    This riding is urban and Ignatieff's policy's are resonating. If the Liberals can't pull off a victory, I expect it to be very close as Alberta is starting to get angry at Harper in the same way they were angry at Mulroney. Either the Liberals will make some in-road in the next few elections OR we are going to see the rise of a new Reform party.
    11 04 16 M. Lunn
    Anne McLellan barely won this riding in 2004 and previous elections and her wins were partially due to her own personal popularity. I know some people who normally vote Tory but voted Liberal in this riding just to support her. With Anne McLellan not running here, this should will stay Tory.
    11 04 15 Teddy Boragina
    Liberal poll numbers in Alberta have dropped. They no longer have the math to win here.
    11 04 14 John
    I travel through the south end of the riding every day on the way to work. In the south end, I see lots of Laurie Hawn signs, and few of anybody elses. In fact, I only saw my first Liberal sign in the riding the other day.
    While one end of the riding isn't necessarily indicative of the whole riding, it suggests to me that Hawn has support here, and his campaign is well financed and well organized.
    11 04 03 M. Lunn
    With Anne McLellan out and the Liberals struggling in Alberta, I think it is highly unlikely they will recapture this and the NDP has never been particularly strong here. Still the Tories aren't doing as well in Alberta as past elections and with this being one of the least conservative ridings in Alberta, there is an outside chance it flip, but unlikely however.
    11 04 02 J Keller
    ‘Strong candidates from the Liberals and NDP cancel each other out.’ Those being ‘Mary MacDonald and Lewis Cardinal.’ David Parker is also one of the Greens' most experienced, likeable and amiable campaigners. Which means he will keep his vote and probably few will swap to gain support for May in BC.
    All that said, ‘a 10,000 vote lead is comfortable anywhere, even more so in Alberta for the Tories. Hawn will hold.’ There is no doubt at it at all. Harper will not even bother to appear here except perhaps on his way to BC.
    I am predicting a 100% Conservative Alberta. Which would be a good thing if a Liberal minority takes over, as there will be no McLellan to dilute policy and cause disastrous contradictions in policy (like signing Kyoto while subsidizing Tar Sands, as Chretien did in part due to her influence).
    11 03 31 R.T.
    Based on the conversations with people in my neighbourhood and based on the number of signs on lawns, I would predict that the Liberals have a stronger chance of winning than pundits outside the riding may think.
    11 03 29 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    I wish to restate my projection from 2 years ago. The Liberals do indeed have the math to win here.
    11 03 27 John
    Jack Layton was here in Edmonton drumming up support for the NDP. And I understand Edmonton Centre is one of the ridings the NDP is targeting here in Edmonton.
    The NDP may not pull enough votes to turn this riding into an NDP seat, but they will pull enough votes away from the Liberals to keep this riding Conservative.
    11 03 20 binriso
    Vote splitting tells the story here, the NDP/Liberal/Green candidates will likely take 50-55% of the vote, and likely in a 20/20/10 split which ensures a big CPC win. Id give the NDP 2nd since their candidate has a bit more name recognition though so maybe closer to 25% for them.
    09 10 02 R.O.
    The one comment here based around the polls is just plain ridiculous i have to say. first off we have to look back at why the liberals even won this riding to begin with and that was only cause they had a very high profile mp in Anne Mclellan. and even she only won it by some pretty close margins back then. There new candidate Mary Mcdonald is simply not that high profile and not that experienced at federal politics either. the ndp will also be running a strong candidate here as well in Lewis Cardinal so there is not going to be a united anti conservative vote in the riding like edmonton strathcona. considering he has been mp of this riding for almost 4 years its clear Laurie Hawn has the advantage here and the conservatives are the strongest party in alberta at the moment so that helps him out as well.
    09 09 26 John
    I'll lean Conservative here simply because Hawn is a two term Conservative incumbent, and incumbency counts for a fair chunk. But it won't be a typical Tory win with the Conservatives grabbing 70% of the vote. The reason I think this is because--with two campuses of Grant McEwan College located in the riding, NAIT located just to the north of the riding, and the University of Alberta located just to the south of the riding, Edmonton Centre will have a demographic similar to Edmonton Strathcona. The Conservatives could hold this one as a plurality rather than an outright majority.
    09 09 20 Steve Smith
    This is an easy Conservative hold. Anne McLellan held on for election after election by reason of her personal profile. With her gone, this is as Conservative-leaning as any other riding within the Edmonton city limits.
    09 09 07 Nick J Boragina
    The most recent Angus Reid poll shows the Tories at 49% in Alberta. Even Ekos only has them at 55%. While this sounds like a lot, remember that the Tories will rack up giant majorities in the rural areas and Calgary. Edmonton, however, is still open to attack. The Liberals did score a full 4 seats in the city in 1993, and the NDP holds a seat in Edmonton and held one in 1988.
    This riding in particular could be won by the Liberals. Ekos shows them at 26% provincewide, and most of that would come from the Edmonton area. If the polls are right, this riding could go Grit.
    Even with a 35 point lead provincewide, the concentration of Liberal support in this riding is enough for them to win it outright. Considering that all the polls say the gap is smaller than that, I put this riding in the Liberal column.
    09 09 01 pollwerker
    Looking back at previous years predictions I see that Hawn was going to be the Defense Minister...well that won't happen, but he will be re-elected. The Liberals just aren't strong enough in AB this time around.
    09 08 29 Insider
    Strong candidates from the Liberals and NDP cancel each other out. Conservative hold.
    One poster noted Ignatieff running would be the Liberals only hope. As the national face of the Liberals that would hurt their chances here more than any credible local candidate.
    09 08 28 Sean P.F.
    Laurie Hawn and the Conservative Party have worked hard into turning this riding blue. This riding went Liberal before due to the position of Anne McLellan. Conservative minded people voted for the Deputy Prime Minister. With her gone, this is a lock for Laurie Hawn and the Tories. I agree with the previous comment that the only way the Tories could lose here is if Michael Ignatieff runs in Edmonton Centre.
    09 08 27 Observer
    I don't have any hope for the Liberal Party. Edmonton Centre kicked out a Liberal Deputy Prime Minister incumbent MP, by electing a challenger Conservative MP. Unless Michael Ignatieff runs here, this will go Conservative.
    09 08 25 wyatt
    A 10,000 vote lead is comfortable anywhere, even more so in Alberta for the Tories. Hawn will hold.
    09 08 24 Dave
    Laurie Hawn is a strong campaigner, but both the Liberals and NDP have nominated credible candidates in Mary MacDonald and Lewis Cardinal. Edmonton-Centre does not have the voting patterns of a typical Alberta riding and it is my feeling that it is way too soon to call this for any of the parties.
    09 08 23 NorthernRaven
    Through you may set it to too close to call. Laurie Hawn will take this one again. Besides Edmonton Strathcona, you call probably predict all the other Alberta and most Saskatchewan seats to be set to a CPC prediction, unless specific star candidates running a Independent Conservatives decide to run.

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