Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Calgary West

Prediction Changed
2009-08-24 10:19:00

Constituency Profile


Anders, Robert

Kinch, Janice

Knowles, Shawna

Vachon, André

Wagner, Anna Lisa

Rob Anders

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • calgary-centre (17/263 Polls)
  • calgary-west (173/261 Polls)
  • macleod (3/178 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


    Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

    11 04 25 binriso
    You could run a blue monkey and win here most likely. The monkey would also be an improvement on the current Conservative MP, or at least the monkey wouldnt shoot his mouth off about Olympics being used as communist propaganda, or equating modern China to being as bad as the Nazis, or calling Nelson Mandela a terrorist.
    11 04 14 s. gainsbourg
    Home to Canada's worst MP, electoral results in Calgary West continue to defy logic, as the incumbent continues to win by landslides. Having passed through the riding recently, it's apparent (by the number of signs) that the Conservatives have strong support in the poorer neighbourhoods of Montgomery and Bowness. Varsity is a wealthy neighbourhood with some Conservative support, but many academics from the U of C live there, and even though it's Calgary, my 10 years as a student at the U of C makes it abundantly clear (even among faculty in the economics department or the business school) that the majority of academics here are not Conservative supporters. There are some visible minorities (people mostly of Lebanese descent) in the neighbourhoods surrounding Ernest Manning High School who are quite Liberal but also seem rather apathetic about politics. Besides this, this is not a very culturally diverse riding.
    Even though the incumbent is likely holed up in a bunker somewhere (to save Canada from yet another international embarrassment caused by one of his gaffes) there’s no reason to believe that this won’t be yet another Conservative landslide.
    11 04 12 SouthpawPundit
    Unfortunately, P.W. Botha's most devoted Canadian acolyte will have little trouble getting re-elected for the sixth time. Honestly, what the Hell is wrong with you people? Rob Anders and the people who vote for him (along with Harper's unflagging support for this moron) begs the question of why anybody other than White religious fundamentalists would ever consider voting Tory.
    Anderson's accomplishments include working for some Republican wacko in Oklahoma, putting his mouth around James Dobson's butt, bringing shame to decent-minded Canadians every time they hear the words ‘Nelson Mandela’, and making the Conservative Party a viable option for delusional fascists who wear white sheets and burn crosses who would otherwise stay home and invent new racial slurs rather than go out to cast a ballot. (Much as how David Sweet appeals to male voters who hit their spouses and consider getting plastered and beating the tar out of some random gay guy the climax to a good night out.) The only intelligent thing this ‘man’ has ever done is limit his verbal output when sitting in Parliament.
    11 04 06 Michael
    My last submission seems to have been chopped off. Just want to say that Jennifer Pollock is not running for the libs in this riding, she is now in the adjacent Calgary Centre. Janice Kinch, a nursing professor, is the Liberal nominee, and Anna Wagner is running for the greens.
    11 04 05 Michael
    Unfortunately, Anders will win yet again. The candidates ranged against him are not that strong, so even though Anders is a weak MP, and not at all representative of the riding's diversity (this ranges from near inner city old neighbourhoods to suburbia). Someone like Stephen Randall in Calgary North-Centre might be able to make this more of a contest.
    11 03 29 M. Lunn
    Rob Anders redneck and hard right views may be a tough pill to swallow for many, but after several attempts in the past, they seem to be unable to unseat him as at least 50% will blindly vote Tory no matter what. Nonetheless, the fact the Tories have failed to crack the 60% mark here unlike the other suburban Calgary ridings suggests he is a liability and only wins due to party brand.
    09 11 11 R.O.
    A liberal prediction for calgary ? but being serious here this is a pretty solid conservative riding where Rob Anders has won by large margins in recent years. and the closest the liberals got in last 3 elections was a 15,000 vote margin of victory in 2004 not exactly that close . and in the 2 elections that current liberal candidate Jennifer Pollock ran in she has lost each by at least 20,000 votes and cannot reasonably expect to make up that difference when liberal numbers are the same or a bit worse than last time. and the provincial results shouldn't have much of an impact here as Stelmach is much less popular than Harper in calgary so that needs to be put into account. and the provincial ridings are much smaller and have less voters in them than federal riding of calgary west. also Anders nomination battle with Donna Kennedy-Glans is likely to be old news by the next campaign if not allready . maybe there are some positives for the liberals here but either way Rob Anders and the conservative party will hold this seat for the immediate future as this is Alberta.
    09 09 17
    It's good to dream, isn't it? Let's be reasonable evaluators, people. This riding is staying solid blue. Sure, it might be the riding the Liberals did ?second best in? ... but then again, that's not saying much. The fact that the Alberta Liberals have seats here is not necessarily because they are proud Liberal voters, but the fact that they want opposition MLAs to oppose to tired Stelmach PC government. I hear all this talk of a ?stronger Liberal leader? this and that... but take an honest and real look at the polls and the general public opinion. The Liberals are not in good shape.
    Let me crank out the numbers for you: Rob Anders won by a margin of 21,375 votes over the Liberal candidate. That's a margin of 35.5%, a landslide proportion. If thus is not a safe seat, then there are no safe seats in Canada except well... maybe Crowfoot and Mount Royal.
    09 09 07 odude22
    Agreed Nick.
    This is the Riding they did Second Best in! The Alberta Liberals did win 5 seats in the city and the new Alberta Liberal leader is from Calgary and Part of his riding is in Calgary West. Along with parts of 4 of those other Liberal Calgary ridings. With a much better Federal leader I think the Liberals will take this riding. Not by much.. but I think with a strong Candidate and campaign stops from high profile Liberals I think the Liberals will indeed take this riding by a small margin.
    09 09 07 Nick J Boragina
    Not so fast!
    Trivia time. What riding in the province did the Liberals do best in? Well thats Edmonton Centre. Which riding did they do second best in? If you said Calgary West your right.
    Whats that you say, the Liberals doing well in Calgary? Its true. The Alberta Liberals won 5 seats in the city, and 4 everywhere else. The new Alberta Liberal leader is from Calgary. Part of his riding is in Calgary West. In fact, part of 4 of those Liberal Calgary ridings. In short, the idea that the Liberals could win here is not as crazy as one might think at first glance.
    While I still have the Tories on top, it is not as big of a margin as you'd think. There is still a chance that the Liberals could steal this riding away, and no, I'm not joking.
    09 08 24 EP
    Regardless of the ups and downs of national trends, Alberta continues to favour the Conservative Party with 60% or more. There is no perfect storm in sight to move any Calgary riding away from the “solidly Conservative column any time soon.

    Navigate to Canada 2011 Home | Provincial Index | Submission

    Canada Federal Election - 2011
    Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
    © Milton Chan, 1999-2011 - Email Webmaster