Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Fort McMurray-Athabasca

Prediction Changed
2009-08-24 10:18:00

Constituency Profile


Asterisk, Jule

Jean, Brian

Wilting, Berend

Young, Karen

Brian Jean

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • athabasca (151/183 Polls)
  • elk-island (2/222 Polls)
  • lakeland (23/244 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 15 to odude22
    To odude22, if the east coasters like the east coast so much, why are they in Fort McMurray?
    Do you really think the east coaster who are benefiting from the financial windfall of the oil sands because of the fiscal policies of the conservatives are really going to listen to Danny ‘not in alberta’ Williams?
    11 04 13 Tony Ducey
    Yeah even the people from Newfoundland (and there are many in this riding) won't affect the result here, easy CPC hold.
    11 03 29 M. Lunn
    While this is one of the least Conservative of the Rural Alberta ridings, that isn't saying much as you could run a monkey as a Conservative in pretty much any rural Alberta riding and get 60%.
    11 03 26 WAC
    In the words of the immortal Chris Delanoy... A rural Alberta riding - guaranteed slam-dunk for the Alliance... er... Conservatives.
    11 02 01 Gladstone
    There is nothing to suggest that this will be anything other than the low-turnout safe Tory seat that it's always been. But if there's any seat in Alberta that could experience a Gary Merasty-style shocker upset, this is it. I'm always amazed the Liberals don't put more effort into it. Surely the symbolism of winning Fort McMurray would be pretty powerful.
    09 12 29 RP.
    It's a little funny, in this round of predictions, as it was in the last, who people think live here, and what they will do, based on where they supposedly come from. It's been said previously, perhaps in the last prediction, it's the southern polls that will be determinative of the outcome in this riding. Turnout riding-wide was 35% last time, typically much lower than that in the northern parts. If a candidate could mobilize the aboriginal and economic refugee vote, they may be able strike into the heart of Tory support, but I wouldn't put any bets on it. Interesting thing I heard the other day, don't know if it's true, there are 20,000 union members in this riding. If true, it's apparently meaningless, election result-wise.
    09 10 04 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Wow! That Liberal prediction was special. So the Newfies working in Ft McMurray are gonna be the ones to help the Liberals overcome the 15,000 vote gap? As if! If that were the case then the Gits would ahve done much better here in '08 when Good Ol Danny was running his ABC campaign. Well on e-night Danny declaired ABC won and done! He ain't doing it again. So the claim of Newfies voting Liberal here is just nonsense.
    09 09 14 big bill
    One thing the fellow below me is forgetting is that even if Fort McMurray was majority goofy newfy, even the newfies want to keep their jobs. The Conservatives are by far the best party for the oilsand development and those who have a stake in it. In addition, with the downturn, many newfoundlanders may have returned to the rock. I would be extremely surprised to see this riding not go for the big ol CPC.
    09 09 07 odude22
    A Majority of those who live within this riding are Newfoundlanders & Labradorians. Newfoundlanders & Labradorians will traditionally vote on the issues concerning their home Province, Newfoundland and Labrador. All Newfoundlanders & Labradorians love Progressive Conservative Preimer Danny Williams and they will follow the second round of his ABC (Anything But Conservative) Campaign. They will then vote for the Liberal's who came second last time in this riding. The Liberal Party, most definitely knows about this and will run a strong candidate in this riding. With a Stronger leader the Liberals can easily take this riding. High profile Liberals will be making stops in this riding. Look for Higher voter turnout and a new MP.
    09 08 24 EP
    Regardless of the ups and downs of national trends, Alberta continues to favour the Conservative Party with 60% or more. That number can only be higher once we take Edmonton into account. Unless the Wildrose Alliance starts to field federal candidates, this rural Alberta riding wills stay in the “solidly Conservative column for the foreseeable future.

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