Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-04-28 08:32:00

Constituency Profile


Block, Kelly

Reaney, Lee

Strelioff, Vicki

Wiebe, Nettie

Kelly Block

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • saskatoon-rosetown-biggar (141/146 Polls)
  • saskatoon-wanuskewin (12/167 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 30 R.O.
    I looked back this riding was predicted to go ndp in 2000 , 2004 and 2008 . only cpc prediction in 2006. somehow i remain skeptical that the ndp rise in Quebec is going to lead to new seats out west i just don't buy it. Kelly Block has been a good mp and has had 2 years to work the riding . layton's comments about reopening quebec consitution debate and targeting alberta oil industry won't help out west. alot of people from Saskatchewan work in the oil industry and know the conservatives are best party to manage the economy. large number of people also allready voted in advance polls which Kelly Block won in 08 and helped her hold riding. the liberal vote also allready collaped here in 08 could it possibly go any lower than 4% this year ? i'm sure its going to be low but lower than that not sure. its going to be another close race but not convinced ndp pick up the seat
    11 04 29 TJS
    I think this quote in today's Saskatoon Star-Phoenix - buried in a story on Jack Layton's visit - pretty much seals this seat for the NDP:
    Someone who thinks Jack is great, and got a hug from Layton, is Kelly Block's sister, Tracy Lyons.
    ‘I'm looking for a representative who, when they get elected, they actually represent the constituents of their ridings, and I think that's what Nettie Wiebe can do,’ Lyons said, adding, ‘This will get me in a pickle.’
    Her family knows she's an NDP supporter and there's a Wiebe sign on her front lawn, she says. ‘We've learned in our family that we have different views and different belief systems, but we still love one another.’
    Yikes! If you own sister can't - at minimum - stay silent, it will make folks think twice about re-electing the incumbent. I also think Palliser - which includes the City of Moose Jaw, southwest part of Regina and the rural area in between - may go to NDP.
    11 04 29 dkay
    every year in this riding conventional wisdom is thrown for a loop...momentum is not showing up in the polls to the extent of the rest of the country however the liberal votes are very soft in the prairies.. i really believe the ndp is going to surprise and steal this one away from the cons this time
    11 04 27 fd sup
    with the new poll showing the NDP and Conservatives almost tied in Sask/Man I can see this riding going NDP and just may be NDP by a bigger number of votes then we thought....
    11 04 28 keefr
    The national jump should be enough to put the NDP over the edge here and regain a foothold in Saskatchewan. Close enough last time, that they just need a bit.
    11 04 27 b post
    I am moving my prediction back to ‘too close to call’ in this riding. With the surge spreading across the country for the NDP, and Ethans's earlier comments about the Green candidate being of lower profile, NDP fortunes are on the way up. However, don't forget the so-called ‘social conservative’ vote here. They never change, regardless of any trends or surges
    11 04 27 Stevo
    With Jackomania running high nationwide, it's very hard to imagine the NDP being shut out of Saskatchewan for the 4th election in a row, and Sask-Rosetown-Biggar is the only seat they could realistically hope to pick up. I think they finally get it done.
    11 04 27
    There is a big rally planned for this riding when Jack heads back towards Ontario..This riding will be the one riding which will flip NDP
    11 04 26 binriso
    So many of us seem to predict this one will fall, and it came within 200 votes of doing so last time. Seems like a coinflip again but the NDP cant get shut out in the province again can they?
    11 04 24 T
    I know the Green Party candidate. She's doing a lot of campaigning in the rural areas of the riding, as she has some family background in the country. She also isn't really trying to attack the NDP directly. So, there's a chance she might draw more Conservative votes away than NDP ones. With her general low profile in the area and the overall lack of attention to the Greens nationally, she is likely to bleed support to the NDP. I can't see her doing any better than last time,
    I don't know too much about the Liberal candidate, but given the national campaign's similarities to the NDP, and the realities of the riding (a NDP-CPC split), more voters will see the NDP as the logical choice to defeat Block. In previous elections, high-profile Liberals (like Ralph Goodale) would come to Saskatoon, and say that ‘only Liberals can stop Harper’. It's always been ridiculous in SRB, but with the NDP momentum in the polls, that argument hasn't happened at all. The Liberals will retain their small core vote, but will struggle to do better than last time.
    If the NDP maintains their momentum in the next week, and NDP supporters in the riding feel that this is their best chance to catch the ‘NDP wave’, I can see the riding going orange in a close race.
    11 04 23 BMcKee
    I still have to stick with my position that this riding is too close to call. There are far fewer NDP lawn signs up in my neighbourhood than I can recall in all the years that I've lived in this area, and a few more Conservative lawn signs. Never the less I don't believe that the NDP vote will collapse too far. To me this means that the election will turn on whether the Liberal and Green votes will shift to a party that actually has a chance of defeating the incumbent. I have to say that I think the small Liberal vote is fairly committed, so that leaves the Greens. If, as a previous commenter said, the Green vote last time was based on the candidate then there is a chance that there vote will shift to the NDP this time around. If on the other hand they stay committed on principle then this becomes extremely close. Either way, I predict that the champagne won't be popped at the winner's party until quite late in the evening. (And don't even get me started about Rural-Urban split and the misguided efforts to remedy it.)
    11 04 23
    The lack f a good Green candidate with the absence of the Tory candidate from debates along with the collapse of the lIberal vote makes this riding a NDP pickup to match the surge in the National campaign
    11 04 21 Ethan E
    I think people are forgetting how appealing and powerful a candidate the Green Party's Amber Jones was in 2008. Amber Jones was at the time, the leader of the provincial green party and I think, received substantial consideration that would not normally be afforded a regular paper candidate. The greens in 2008 had picked up about 700 votes more than they normally do and assuming even half of those were normally destined for the NDP candidate, those votes then tip the balance.
    I previously predicted privately among friends and family that the NDP would win this riding last time and I was wrong. I make the same prediction now more confident with the absence of GPC Amber Jones.
    11 04 18 B. Post
    The Triple ‘R’ vote will likely come through here again. Rural-Religious-Right is too strong for an NDP gain, even though they have a far stronger candidate. Huge city-country split here. If the Greens did not run,it is likely an NDP gain, however nothing has changed and I expect a real close PC win.
    11 04 15
    This riding is at risk for the Tories and hence Harper is coming to shore it up..Too little too late and The Tory Candidate is sub par to the NDP candidate..
    11 04 16 Marco Ricci
    I think this riding probably leans Conservative based on its recent history and the fact that the Cons are the incumbents. There is also the fact that the NDP appear to be way behind the Cons in the polls for the Prairies. However, Nettie Wiebe is getting a lot of exposure since the riding is being profiled on CPAC this month, and she was also on CBC commenting on the Guergis-Harper scandal tonight. She could still have a shot at it.
    11 04 14 Jeff
    For Chris, every time Jack Layton shows up in Saskatchewan, the NDP vote drops - he's just too Limo & Latte Left to appeal to the good ole boys in poor old Sask. As for the signs, the Conservatives run their own campaigns for each constituency - so Kelly's signs show her dedicated and strong volunteer team in SRB. Only the NDP like Soviet style central planning. :)
    11 04 09 fd sup
    NDP by a few votes.... the anyone but Harper vote will go toward the NDP even if they don't like the party since the NDP in this riding got the best chance of beating the Conservatives...
    11 04 05 Chris
    If you drive around the riding you see that Nettie Wiebe signs are popping up at a rapid pace, both rural and urban. She's been in the local media lots and Jack Layton is in town to campaign with her this week, clearly the NDP is taking this seat seriously.
    Meanwhile Kelly Block's campaign is the only one of the 4 Saskatoon Conservative candidates which has been out working and got any of their signs up in the city. If the conservatives aren't worried about Nettie why are they still focusing solely on her riding 10 days into the campaign?
    11 04 04 Neal
    Every election, the new Demns come on here and say ‘this is the year that Nettie will win’ Once again, given the strong numbers of the Tories on the prairies, combined with Layton's lack of appeal there, the result will be similar to the last several votes. Sorry Nettie.
    11 04 03 M.Lunn
    In the past four elections, the Tories have consistently gotten 44-45% while the NDP has ranged between 36-44% in support so quite polarized between the NDP being strong in Saskatoon and the Tories in the rural portions. The NDP's best shot at picking up a seat in Saskatchewan, but if I had to make a prediction I would give the Tories the slight edge, but definitely too early to call at this point.
    11 04 03 jeff316
    If Nettie couldn't win with a no-hope Liberal campaign, a no-hope Liberal candidate and no incumbent, she's not going to win now, that's for sure. Nettie is a good candidate but this riding has been drawn in such a way as to never be NDP territory again.
    11 04 03 jeff316
    If Nettie could not win with a no-hope Liberal campaign, a no-hope Liberal candidate and no incumbent, she's not going to win now, that's for sure. Nettie is a good candidate but this riding has been drawn in such a way as to never be NDP territory again.
    11 04 01 Jeff
    The biggest problem the NDP have is Nettie Weibe, and that's saying something with Lingenfelter scrapping the bottom of the barrel in polling. Why the NDP continue to call her a 'star candidate' is just beyond me. Ms. Weibe failed to win the Provincial NDP leadership and then did not bother to run as a regular MLA (not a good sign), she lost in Saskatoon-Humboldt in 2004 (with Pankiw still on the ballot no less), she lost in 2006 in SRB against Carol Skelton, she lost yet again against Kelly Block (then a newcomer) in 2008. With Kelly's work ethic and friendly approachable manner, she'll again beat out Weibe. It will be close as always, but Nettie Weibe is a star candiate only in and to the NDP. The rest of us just find her condescending and kind of annoying. But don't worry, she'll be back again in 4 years. She has seniority in the NDP ranks.
    11 04 01 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    In 2008 they said the NDP would beat the Conservative Party, but they did not.
    In 2006 they said the NDP would beat the Conservative Party, but they did not.
    In 2004 they said the NDP would beat the Conservative Party, but they did not.
    In 2000 they said the NDP would beat the Conservative Party, and they did. They beat the Alliance too, but not the combined total for both parties, and that I think is why the NDP has been unable to break back in over here.
    Some numbers for Information sake:
    In Saskatoon
    N - 9135
    C - 7100
    G - 878
    L - 864
    O - 193
    Outside Saskatoon
    C - 5131
    N - 2834
    G - 354
    L - 324
    O - 82
    11 03 30 Lowlander
    Block's personable enough but she certainly isn't a strong MP. As the incumbent she definitely has an advantage, though. At the same time I think Wiebe and the NDP will benefit from a growing desire to get the Conservatives out of government and the personal dislike a lot of people have this time around for both Harper and Ignatieff. Big question is will people actually get out and vote. Nonetheless it was awfully close last time; I'm predicting that Wiebe takes it this time.
    11 03 29 WAC
    The Conservatives have some really impressive polling numbers in ‘Sasktoba’ right now. I just don't think the numbers are there for Wiebe this time. Conservative will probably win by about 2,500 - 3,000 votes I imagine.
    11 03 25 BMcKee
    Personally I'd predict Nettie Weibe as the winner but in all honesty I think this one is way too close to call, just as it was last time. The breakdown of the voting showed a clear rural-urban split in all of the ridings in both of the major cities, but in Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar that split manifested itself in a two way race - except that it wasn't. The handful of Green Party and Liberal voters were enough to give the election to Kelly Block. I don't think things have changed all that much in the urban part of the riding. It is still very blue collar and portions of the riding have some of the worst urban poverty in the province. But the rural portion of the riding is just enough to balance that out.
    11 03 23 Aniconist
    It's unwise to pin much hope on Nettie Wiebe, who has twice failed to deliver for the federal NDP despite being hailed locally (and by some of the commenters here) as a star candidate. NDP troubles in Saskatchewan have gotten worse, not better, with the end of the Calvert government, and the fortunes of Wiebe are not improved by the failure to renew and engage with the post-baby boom generation which plagues the provincial NDP (of which Wiebe is a baby-boom standard bearer, or by the federal NDP's total absorption in the various causes of the Toronto and Vancouver left. The issues of the aging provincial party hurt them in the rapidly-growing and young urban area, and the issues of the federal party hurt them in the rural areas. Tory hold.
    10 02 06 Kirk
    I have a hard time viewing Nettie Weibe as an extremist. If Nettie is organizing in rural Saskatchewan this seat is an easy gain for the NDP.
    10 02 05 binriso
    Perfect candidate here is obviously Lorne Calvert, riding I believe overlaps part of his former riding provincially and he was a fairly moderate and very competent Premier of Sask. He would win big here but its a toss up other wise with a slight CPC advantage.
    10 01 15 Pierre
    Sadly this race could go either direction (Tory or NDP). The problem is that you have extremists running on both sides, and with no credible Liberal, you get either a radical anti-globalization protest MP or you get a Sarah Palin wanna-be.
    It is sad how representation in Saskatoon in general has gone into the toilet since the 1990s.
    09 10 21 Scott D
    This riding likely leans Conservative but has the potential to go to the NDP if Nettie is organizing hard in rural Saskatchewan. If Block is re-elected it will be because of the Conservative support in Saskatchewan is high. Block maybe more visible then her mentor Vellacott but that does not equal a high profile member of parliament.
    09 09 29
    This riding has for the longest time, been a see-saw race. However, Kelly Block has been a visible, active and strong backbencher and has solidified her grip on this riding. Potential for promotion in the caucus.
    09 09 07 Scott D
    This seat remains the best hope for electing an NDP MP from Saskatchewan but the seat will likely remain a Conservative riding. The urban vote should remain strong with the NDP but in order to beat the Conservatives the NDP need to increase support in the rural areas of the riding.
    09 09 05 Stevo
    What a frustration this seat continues to be for the NDP! They came extremely close in this open seat in 2008 under very favourable conditions for the party, but still couldn't quite close the deal. With Kelly Block now in and with full advantage of incumbency, and with the NDP likely to do worse in the next election, Sask-Rose-Big will continue to leave NDP campaign workers in Saskatchewan banging their heads against the wall. Sorry Dippers! Your Sask shut-out continues.
    09 09 02 R.O.
    The ndp aren't going to like what i have to say here but i'm going to say it anyways. i think there best chance to win this riding has already past and it was clearly the last election as 2 factors should of helped them and candidate Nettie Wiebe. those being the fact riding was vacant after Carol Skelton decided not to run again so there was no incumbent advantage. the extremely weak liberal vote in saskatchewan and this riding especially also increased the ndp's chances but both of these helpful factors were still not enough and the conservatives with Kelly Block as there candidate still held the seat. now its a year later and she has the incumbent advantage and better known in the riding. so considering the conservatives strength out west and saskatchewan especially its doubtful its going anywhere.
    09 08 27 wyatt
    Block will hold the seat. Her percentage of the vote wasn't much lower than Skelton's was in '06. The NDP ran a familiar candidate and couldn't take the open seat. Block's having been on the ballot in municipal politics is also an advantage. Look for her to open her lead to 2,000 or so.
    09 08 24 binriso
    Oh so close last time means the NDP should be campaigning strongly in this riding and they could take it.

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