Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River

Prediction Changed
2011-04-28 09:22:00

Constituency Profile


Clarke, Rob Gordon

Joseph, Lawrence

Lafond, Gabe

Morin, George

Rob Clarke

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • churchill-river (144/144 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


    Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

    11 05 01 binriso
    64% first nations in this riding, it all depends on if they get out to vote. It will either be NDP or Conservative. Also no First Peoples party candidate which helps the NDP slightly.
    11 05 01 Marco Ricci
    Looks like this riding may remain Conservative. Project Democracy poll:
    CON: 56.7
    NDP: 35.0
    LIB: 6.7
    11 04 30 Thebaud
    In light of the poll that was released by Project Democracy this seat will be going NDP. The poll shows the NDP at 35%. This poll would have poor contact among First Nations communities which will have huge votes for the NDP. When Gary Merasty won this seat in 2006 he had over 60% of his vote come from on reserve electors.
    11 04 29 Ron F
    Those who say Chief Joseph is well liked and not well liked are both right. In the first Nations communities he is very popular and seen as a spokesperson. In the Settler communities he is disliked. His comparisons and comments are offensive to them. this means he will win big in the first nations and lose in the other communities big. The Conservative candidate is the mirror image. He reminds first nations people of their repression and the settler community respects his work with the RCMP ans his conservative views.This will be determined by which communities turn out more. There are more people in the first nations people in the riding both in their own communities and a significant minority in settler communities. This riding is too close to call. it depends on who turns out. In this election first nations turn out will not be low.
    11 04 29 Bernard von Schulmann
    A poll is out and it has a lead for the Conservatives
    Rob Clarke Conservative - 56.7%
    Lawrence Joseph NDP - 35.0%
    Gabe Lafond Liberal - 6.7%
    George Morin Green - 1.7%
    400 respondents +-4.85% at the 95% level
    11 04 27 fd sup
    now with the increase in the polls for the NDP... this riding is going NDP for sure....with a larger vote then I thought before...
    11 04 27 b.post
    Yes, Mr. Joseph is well known, - but not well liked! He will be slaughtered in the non aboriginal portions of this riding, and the PC's will welcome back another low-grade MP from Sask. to Ottawa.
    11 04 09 fd sup
    the one that is running for the NDP is way to well know.... He will win by a very low margin....
    11 04 03 M.Lunn
    Since this riding was created in 1997, the party that won the previous election has never held this (NDP 1997, Liberals 2000, Conservatives 2004, Liberals 2006, and Conservatives 2008) so there does seem to be a tradition of switching parties. The Tories should win big in the southern parts of the riding where much of the population is, but the riding as a whole is 60% aboriginal whom overwhelmingly go NDP or Liberal but generally have a low voter turnout. If there is a higher turnout amongst aboriginal voters and they unite behind one party, that party should win otherwise it will stay Tory.
    11 04 02 Ron F
    Is there anyone out there who does any analyses (non-partisans) who actually thinks that the Conservatives can keep this riding other than the predictor? Given all the factors previously discussed and the current support for Chief Samuels from the First Nations community Why is this seat not at least too close to call? There is also the factor that the current Conservative has not been friendly to First Nations issue except one (Gun registry).This not going to be close at all it will be a clear NDP pick up.
    11 04 01 R.O.
    Somehow forgot to send in a prediction for this one earlier, Rob Clarke has been a good mp and has the advantage here. the riding is a mix of first nations voters in the north and rural farm/small town belt in the south. the southern part of riding most definity stay conservative , ndp might make gains in northern areas but face same challanges liberals had to deal with when they tried to unsuccesfully hold the riding. and also if ndp really has overtaken liberals as choice of opposition voter in this riding it be significant as it mean liberals only choice of opposition voters in 1 single riding in saskatchewan that being Wascana.
    11 04 01 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    As I said 2 years ago, this riding has no business being listed as solidly Conservative. If the NDP does indeed have a strong local candidate, then he/she could take it.
    11 03 31 Lowlander
    Have to go with an NDP steal here. This is a riding where the local candidate can make a big difference. Lawrence Joseph is an extremely strong candidate. Gabe Lafond doesn't have the draw of a Joan Beatty or David Orchard so the Liberals are weaker this time too. It'll be a fight between Clarke and Joseph; I say Joseph takes it.
    11 03 28 J Money
    This prediction as Conservative needs to be shifted to at least too close. Joseph is a strong candidate and has the ability to get out the very disenfranchised communities in the north. This riding has a volatile history - the last election means little for the current.
    11 01 27 Thebaud
    Lawrence Joseph is star everywhere he goes people know him from his day's with the FSIN or his country music. Everyone wants to meet LJ, shake his hand and get a photo with him.
    Now the conservative MP is writing bizarre letters to the editor more or less indicating that he fixed the education problem in the north and if local leaders still think education is a problem they are wrong. It smells of total desperation.
    Rob Clarke does not have a chance here. Not with LJ running anyway.
    10 01 22 Battleford-Denizen
    Laurence Joseph running in this riding throws this one into the mix as a possible swing. The NDP is taking this quite seriously - and have assigned staff to working with Lawrence and the community. Should be a tight race, but the NDP should pull ahead of the Conservatives with the 65% aboriginal population of this riding.
    10 03 24 Chris
    Surprising that no one has mentioned that Lawrence Joseph, former chief of the FSIN (Federation of SK Indian Nations), is running for the NDP this time around. In 2006, Liberal Gary Merasty unseated the Conservatives largely by increasing the dismal voter turnout in the first nations communities in the more northern parts of the riding - doubling the Liberal's vote from the election before. Given that the riding is around 65% aboriginal, perhaps Joseph will be able to pull off a similar strategy?
    10 03 12 Kirk
    This is going to be a close race but this riding tends to go based on the strength of the candidates. Lawrence Josepgh is the NDPs Gary Merasty. Expect the NDP to take this one.
    10 01 18 binriso
    Honestly, I dont know if it’ll be that easy for the CPC up here, its the Liberals #2 target in the province and the CPC lost quite a few votes compared to 06 as well even if they did win by a fairly comfortable margin. Not to mention the CPC were 40 points up on the Liberals in 2008 in Sask, will probably be a bit closer this time.
    09 09 10 Nick J Boragina
    IMHO, this riding has no business being a solidly Tory riding. This was one of the closest ridings for the Liberals. Remember that the Liberals suffered a big setback with Dion as leader. This riding, and all its Liberal-voting native reserves, could potentially upset the Conservatives. At this time, the Tories have a lead here for sure, hit calling it solid is uncalled for IMO.
    09 09 07 Scott D
    This is a likely Conservative win but is one of the few seats in Saskatchewan which the Conservative party could be sent packing. If the Liberal party is likely to form government the riding has the potential to go Liberal. The NDP could also potentially win this seat if they run a high-profile candidate. The riding will likely remain a Conservative seat but under certain circumstances could be a Liberal or NDP gain.
    09 08 27 wyatt
    Despite running against David Orchard, Clarke expanded his lead considerably since his by-election earlier in the year. He'll hold the seat, and may end up closer to a 10,000 vote margin.
    09 08 27 JJ
    Should be in the Conservative fold because Rob Clarke managed a healthy margin of victory, but could be a potentially tight race. This riding has elected Conservatives, Liberals, and NDP MP's before so it is not exactly a 'safe' riding for any of the parties.

    Navigate to Canada 2011 Home | Provincial Index | Submission

    Canada Federal Election - 2011
    Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
    © Milton Chan, 1999-2011 - Email Webmaster