Election Prediction Project
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Canada Federal Election - 2009/10

Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River


Prediction Changed
2009-08-28 16:58:40
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Incumbent:
Rob Clarke

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • churchill-river (144/144 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    10 03 24 Chris
    70.76.70.39
    Surprising that no one has mentioned that Lawrence Joseph, former chief of the FSIN (Federation of SK Indian Nations), is running for the NDP this time around. In 2006, Liberal Gary Merasty unseated the Conservatives largely by increasing the dismal voter turnout in the first nations communities in the more northern parts of the riding - doubling the Liberal's vote from the election before. Given that the riding is around 65% aboriginal, perhaps Joseph will be able to pull off a similar strategy?
    10 03 12 Kirk
    207.47.246.247
    This is going to be a close race but this riding tends to go based on the strength of the candidates. Lawrence Josepgh is the NDPs Gary Merasty. Expect the NDP to take this one.
    10 01 18 binriso
    156.34.221.169
    Honestly, I dont know if it’ll be that easy for the CPC up here, its the Liberals #2 target in the province and the CPC lost quite a few votes compared to 06 as well even if they did win by a fairly comfortable margin. Not to mention the CPC were 40 points up on the Liberals in 2008 in Sask, will probably be a bit closer this time.
    09 09 10 Nick J Boragina
    198.96.35.219
    IMHO, this riding has no business being a solidly Tory riding. This was one of the closest ridings for the Liberals. Remember that the Liberals suffered a big setback with Dion as leader. This riding, and all its Liberal-voting native reserves, could potentially upset the Conservatives. At this time, the Tories have a lead here for sure, hit calling it solid is uncalled for IMO.
    09 09 07 Scott D
    204.83.49.29
    This is a likely Conservative win but is one of the few seats in Saskatchewan which the Conservative party could be sent packing. If the Liberal party is likely to form government the riding has the potential to go Liberal. The NDP could also potentially win this seat if they run a high-profile candidate. The riding will likely remain a Conservative seat but under certain circumstances could be a Liberal or NDP gain.
    09 08 27 wyatt
    24.235.142.160
    Despite running against David Orchard, Clarke expanded his lead considerably since his by-election earlier in the year. He'll hold the seat, and may end up closer to a 10,000 vote margin.
    09 08 27 JJ
    96.49.110.185
    Should be in the Conservative fold because Rob Clarke managed a healthy margin of victory, but could be a potentially tight race. This riding has elected Conservatives, Liberals, and NDP MP's before so it is not exactly a 'safe' riding for any of the parties.



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