Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

Winnipeg Centre

Prediction Changed
2009-08-22 17:22:00

Constituency Profile


Martin, Pat

Pitura, Bev

Rankin, Darrell

Romanow, Jacqueline

Wise, Allan

Pat Martin

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • winnipeg-centre (131/149 Polls)
  • winnipeg-north-centre (6/162 Polls)
  • winnipeg-south-centre (22/176 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 27 Sharpie
    I live in this riding, and until today I'd have called it a safe seat. Martin has had some bad days recently: a tough ride at one all-candidates meeting, a no-show at another, and a Liberal candidate making a strong impression. Then today I got a supposedly non-partisan flyer in my mailbox urging me to vote for any of the other candiates, and making a number of accusatuions against Martin.
    I mentioned this to a co-worker and neighbour who is a strong backer of the NDP, but who complained that he hadn't done enough for the second-poorest riding in the country and instead focussed on eliminating the penny and getting a pardon for Louis Riel.
    The national NDP surge will probably help Martin, but it might also make party workers complacent, and allow voters to drift to other candidates, thinking that the NDP is a lock, so there's no harm in voting for a preferred candidate. The Liberals and the Greens are the most likely benefactors in this scenario.
    11 04 03 C.A.B.
    Hard to believe that this is now the safest NDP seat in Winnipeg, but there you have it. Interestingly enough, Pat Martin also has the distinction of being the only New Democrat MP in the Prairies to have been elected prior to 2008. As for the riding itself, it's hallowed NDP ground. (Amusingly enough, Kevin Lamoureux actually ran here in 2000 - and lost). The Tories came in second place last time, with the Liberals well under 20%. Martin himself fell just short of a majority, but was still 27 points above second. I think it's safe to say he'll be back in Parliament.
    11 03 29 M. Lunn
    Regardless of how the NDP does in Manitoba, they should easily hold this. Pat Martin has a high enough profile never mind this according to StatsCan is the poorest riding in all of Canada so although the Liberals will probably finish in second ahead of the Tories, they will still fall well short of the NDP. Winnipeg North only went Liberal due to Kevin Lemouroux who is not running here. If not for him, it would have stayed NDP by a longshot, thus this is an NDP riding, not a swing one.
    11 03 28 Jim
    Pat Martin will have no problem maintaining his seat in this race. Other candidates are not well known in the area.
    09 09 05 The Mighty Tim
    Thanks for the update on the Conservative candidate. I hadn't seen that on punditsguide or any other site.
    As for the three-way race, I've always thought that this area could go four-way. I would still say that the CPC couldn't get over 25% and that 2008 was a high point for them. For the Libs, 25% is not out of the question (they won in 1993 and have otherwise previously been this high). And, if the Greens are ever going to make a stand in Winnipeg, its here - with only one flyer dropped last time in half the riding and no canvassing they hit 11%. If their max support is 25%, that leaves 25% for the NDP.
    Call me crazy, but this is a location that could split all over the map. If Pat Martin weren't running, I would say that this place could be interesting to watch. With Pat, it's NDP solidly. And, it's a race for (distant) second place.
    09 09 03 Greg P
    To correct the previous submission, the Conservatives do have a nominated candidate (Bev Pitura), who has been knocking on doors all summer (she was at my place on Monday). That being said, this is NDP territory. I disagree that the 2008 result was a high water mark for the Conservatives, however this riding probably isn't going to go away from Pat Martin at the very least, if not the NDP as a whole.
    That being said, if the rumors are true and Pat is considering a run for the Provincial leadership... it's still most likely an NDP win, but it's not a certainty (strong Liberal candidate could potentially make it a 3-way race).
    09 08 21 The Mighty Tim
    Pat Martin (NDP) is running again and has consistently received 41% to 48%. He will continue to do well here this time. The NDP have held this area for decades, with few exceptions, and Pat is also popular.
    The Conservative ten-percenters are no longer coming into the area and are instead prominently going to Elmwood-Transcona, St. Boniface, and Winnipeg South-Centre. They don't have a candidate yet and have lots of other target ridings to work on locally if they hope to get their majority. Their 21% last time was a high water mark that they will be hard-pressed to equal.
    The Liberals do not yet have a candidate and faired very poorly last time relative to past performances. They received a lot of support in the area for their pro-environmental stances, like the carbon tax. Now that Ignatieff has moved away from this, he won't be popular in the very small-g green areas like downtown and Wolseley. Those areas have higher turnout is a riding where 60% don't show up.
    The Greens, on the other hand, appear to be targetting this riding. They have already canvassed half of Wolseley, where they got 25%-30% without doing anything in 2008. Elizabeth May has recently visited the riding and they have a strong candidate in Jacqueline Romanow. She is a prof at the U of W in Politics and Aboriginal Self-Governance, is Metis, and has worked on reserves - all this will play well in the large Aboriginal population.
    If the election is on in the fall of 2009, I expect Pat Martin to win. The real race will be for second place - so let's start making predictions on that. I expect a strong Green second place in fall 2009.

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