Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2009-08-26 14:08:00

Constituency Profile


Barnes, Dave

Bouché, John

Penner, Wes

Tweed, Merv

Merv Tweed

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • brandon-souris (173/173 Polls)
  • portage-lisgar (22/197 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits’ Guide


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    11 04 28 DSquared
    Jack, 3 things:
    1) History is not a reliable guide when major changes are happening, as is the case now.
    2) Of course the election of public officials at one level has implications at others. Recall that the City of Brandon used to regularly elect right-wing mayors by large margins, sometimes with more than one strong right-wing candidate running. That pattern broke last Fall.
    3) You're correct that the PCs held on during their low-water election in 1980, but circumstances were different. Back then, Walter Dinsdale was running for the PCs. He was and remains popular in Brandon, and it was that personal popularity more than anything which helped him hold on. Merv Tweed is no Walter Dinsdale.
    11 04 27 Jack Zero
    A local election for Mayor has no baring on the Federal election.
    This is a CPC majority riding. Before than it was a PC/Reform/Alliance majority riding. The last time the right-of-center party(s) didn't get a majority, 1980. The NPD high water mark was that year, it was 24.8% More recently their high mark was 20.2% in 2006.
    The NDP can run the greatest campaign of all time and they will still lose by 30 points.
    11 04 17 DSquared
    John Bouche will surprise people and take this riding for the NDP. People in Brandon recently threw out the Tory-backed incumbent mayor for a woman backed by the NDP. Conservatives are also a non-factor on the First Nations. Given the rise of support for the NDP brand in the City of Brandon, a good campaign by the NDP will result in a win.
    11 04 04 Nick J ‘Teddy’ Boragina
    This is the only riding in the province where the Liberals have yet to find a candidate (according to their website)
    11 04 03 C.A.B.
    In addition to this being the 8th-best Green riding in Canada (and second-best in the Prairies, behind only the equally baffling Calgary Centre-North), this was also the worst Liberal riding in Rural Manitoba (they did even worse in two Winnipeg ridings), with a lost deposit and their only fourth-place finish province-wide. Former PC MP (and now MLA) Rick Borotsik, famously lukewarm towards Stephen Harper, once mused about running as a federal Liberal, a decision he's no doubt very grateful he did not make, given these results. Another easy victory for Tweed.
    11 03 29 M. Lunn
    Considering the strong Tory margins in the past few elections and the massive Tory lead in rural Manitoba, this should be an easy Tory lead. Interestingly enough I believe the Greens came in second last time around and won most of the polls near the University of Brandon. But once one gets beyond the left leaning cacoon around the university, this is solidly Tory.
    11 03 29 Matthew
    Three-way vote-splitting between the Liberal, NDP, and Green candidates will make Merv Tweed a shoo-in for reelection.
    11 03 28 jim
    Another easy win for the conservatives here. The Liberals , if they ever found a strong candidate and started early , could potentially win this seat in the future if the conservative vote falls apart across the country. The Liberals have yet to select a candidate so this is a easy conservative win.
    10 09 01 A.S.
    Well, there *was* a surprise here last time: Green candidate Dave Barnes coming out of nowhere with 15.8% of the vote, the party's 8th best result in Canada (and only a titch behind the second-place NDP). Wha'?!? Brandon-Souris?!? Not that it's destined to snowball into anything a la Grey-Bruce-Owen Sound--and remember: the Greens *still* can't win there, so why here...
    10 08 22 Matthew
    No surprises here. If the other parties put some serious attention into this riding, it could work--it has before--but they will write it off.
    09 08 25 Sean P.F.
    Southern, Rural Manitoba is Conservative country. Expect an easy victory for the Tories come election day.

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