Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011

York West

Prediction Changed
2009-08-28 16:57:00

Constituency Profile


Manfrini, Giulio

Otura, George Okoth

Sgro, Judy

Smitherman, Arthur

Tibbin, Unblind Kheper Keseb

Walters, Audrey

Hon. Judy Sgro

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • york-centre (13/178 Polls)
  • york-west (151/154 Polls)
  • Reference:

  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 22 Teddy Boragina
    I live in this riding. Given the situation in both Jewish ridings and in Quebec, this will become, by some distance, the safest Liberal seat in the entire country.
    11 04 05 Tony Ducey
    It's to bad because Sgro is a candidate you'd like to see get beat but this seat has been Liberal for long and it goes Liberal again here.
    11 03 29 MH
    Neither the NDP nor the Conservatives pose a threat to Judy Sgro. The battle is for second place. If this seat goes anything but Liberal, the Liberals will probably drop below 12 seats nationally and lose official party status.
    11 03 28 M. Lunn
    This riding may border the 905 belt and other swing ridings, but being one of the poorer ridings in Toronto, its pretty solidly Liberal and not the type of riding you would expect the Tories to even be competitive in let alone win.
    09 09 05 A.S.
    Sorry, Stevo, but you can't automatically invoke Mount Royal anymore on behalf of Grit safety; thanks to Asper Toryism hitting Hampstead and CSL, the '08 Grit share was only 55.65% there, vs 59.4% in York West! Anyway, the NDP reassumed the second place position here, albeit way back in the pack, and any consolidated banlieuploitation strategy Team Layton has up its sleeve (cf. the share gains in Etobicoke North, Scarborough-RR, even York South-Weston) is just about the *only* hope one'd have for Sgro losing, now.
    09 08 29 Stevo
    Actually, I would say York West is ‘only’ the *second* safest Liberal seat in the country, after Mount Royal in Montreal.
    Either way, Judy Sgro can keep holding those strip club fundraisers for as long as she likes - though I'm not why she needs them, given that her position as MP is more or less secured for life in York West.
    09 08 27 OgtheDim
    The safest Liberal seat in the country.

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