Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-05-01 09:15:00

Constituency Profile


Fantino, Julian

Ferri, Mario

Pratt, Mark

Rodriguez-Larrain, Claudia

Hon. Julian Fantino

Previous Prediction/result

  • 2008 Prediction
  • 2006 Prediction
  • 2004 Prediction
  • 2000 Prediction
  • vaughan-king-aurora (127/215 Polls)
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  • Pundits' Guide


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    11 04 30 Ted J
    Mario Ferri may be popular, but he LOST his seat in the recent Municipal Election. Combine that with an incredibly weak national Liberal campaign, Julian Fantino's name recognition, the money for the hospital campus (however scandal-laden it may be, it's still money), and you've got yourself another Fantino win.
    It's still going to be an incredibly close result, but Fantino will once again win. The by-election was 4 months ago, there's no reason to believe that the residents of Vaughan feel any different now than they did then.
    11 04 29 R.O.
    Julian Fantino is a good fit as vaughan mp and conservative numbers are good for Ontario , where is liberals are now less than dion in 08 . the site correctly predicted this going conservative in november by-election not sure why it has not been predicted so again. Fantino is well respected for his years of service in Ontario with various police forces and very personally likeable. the smear campaigns ran against him in by-election bordered on rediclous. former liberal candidate Tony Genco has also defected from the liberals and endorsed fantino this election. that can't possibly help the liberals. election has also turned into bizare race between Harper and Layton. The affulent residents of Vaughan would never vote ndp , and liberals not strong this year why go for a backbench liberal instead of re-electing Julian Fantino doubtful vaughan is staying conservative
    11 04 29
    Julian Fantino is a good fit as vaughan mp and conservative numbers are good for Ontario , where is liberals are now less than dion in 08 . the site correctly predicted this going conservative in november by-election not sure why it has not been predicted so again. Fantino is well respected for his years of service in Ontario with various police forces and very personally likeable. the smear campaigns ran against him in by-election bordered on rediclous. former liberal candidate Tony Genco has also defected from the liberals and endorsed fantino this election. that can't possibly help the liberals. election has also turned into bizare race between Harper and Layton. The affulent residents of Vaughan would never vote ndp , and liberals not strong this year. why go for a backbench liberal instead of re-electing Julian Fantino doubtful, vaughan is staying conservative
    11 04 29 fbc
    I have seen the debate on Rogers TV. It was an eye opener. Being that Mr. Mario Ferri has been an elected official for the past 25 years, I found his performance to be very poor to say the least. He did not answer any of the questions,as I felt that he didn't understand the questions in the first place. He appreared to be unprepared and did not know the issues. He could only read from his prepared Liberal Party notes. I would not want him to represent Vaughan at the Federal level. I am confused on how he could have ever been elected for public office in the first place. I would recommend all people of Vaughan view the Rogers debate and I'm confident that they will determine Mr. Julian Fantino as the clear winner
    11 04 29 OgtheDim
    Oh this one is interesting.
    This is Vaughn where politics is all personal and a seat at the table of power is important to the MP. Its almost like running in a bubble where the national campaign doesn't matter as much.
    Chretien fired up the base the other day and that will help the Liberals who stayed away gain a bit back.
    But Fantino has the magic touch of the local politician loved for who he is. And with incumbency, even if its only for a few months, that grows.
    Personally, I don't think Fantino is in this game to be a local MP regardless of his party's standing. He's sort of an in charge kind of guy. I'd hate to be his deputy minister. If the CPC win a minority and their budget falls, he might be motivated out of displeasure with being denied a seat at the decision table. Or he might just say he's had enough and take off. Or if Harper quits, he could take a run at the leadership and the base would love his tough and rough ethic - he'd be like Joe Volpe, without the charm.
    But, on this day, he wins.
    11 04 27 will87
    Will the Liberals declining fortunes in Ontario help Fantino? We'll find out Monday, but I'll hold off calling this yet because of the result of the by-election.
    11 04 19 RJF
    This has Been Grit Territory in the past and Julian Fantino's shine fell off with the G-20 I still think it will be close though I will give the nod to Ferri
    11 04 17 MF
    Fantino got about as much of the popular vote as I expected in the by-election, but the Liberals came closer with the NDP/Green vote collapse. In spite of the Tory riding association controversy, I think the Liberals are more in disarray in Vaughan. Julian Fantino is a polarizing figure in Ontario but he is very much a local hero. And I expect the NDP + Green + fringe parties and independents vote to be bigger this time. I am giving Fantino the edge.
    11 04 16 Ted J
    Mario Ferri lost in the recent municipal election, but by less than a few hundred votes, so he still has name recognition and relatively higher popularity. He's a stronger candidate than Tony Genco was. Health Care is a major issue in this riding, and Fantino has delivered with federal funding for the Hospital - but fears over CPC management to the health care system may hurt them.
    My heart says this riding stays Conservative, but my gut says it goes Liberal. Either way, it's going to be a 45/45 split right down the middle, a few hundred votes will make the difference.
    11 04 15 burlivespipe
    The issue of health care is a pretty straight forward one -- campaign to protect one-tier health care. Even the 2-tier folkhero Harper knows this to be true (what he'd do with a majority you don't want to know)... This is now going to unite the anti-harper crowd in this riding and will make Fantino fall hard.
    11 04 14 PY
    This just in from the Star:
    It's likely that the association will be run for the CPC national campaign for the time being, but it's telling that in the print version of the story, former candidate Richard Lorello said that he has since left the association, although not the party.
    Now whether this will dissuade the electorate from re-electing Fantino, we shall see...but if his predecessor as candidate isn't willing to stand by him, that can't be a positive sign.
    11 04 14 John
    This could spell trouble for Julian Fantino as two members of his riding association quit in protest over the fact that money was earmarked to the VHCC which has two prime fundraisers. Plus Harper's less than stellar debate and the Liberals starting to make moves in Ontario could make this a declared Liberal win. I would still put it as Too Close to Call at this time.
    11 04 14 Marco Ricci
    'Conservatives quit over Vaughan health-care money'
    Two Conservatives have quit their own riding association in Vaughan north of Toronto, accusing incumbent candidate Julian Fantino and the Conservative government of handing $10 million in public funds to a private non-profit group involved in a major health-care development.
    11 04 14 joey joe joe
    A few days ago I called this for the Conservatives. I'm flipping my vote to the Liberals. Iggy did have a strong rally here but my reasoning is with the new story this morning on top Fantino fundraisers getting $10million contracts. It smells like a kickback even if it was legit.
    >From CBC story ‘Two Conservative riding association members — Richard Lorello and Tracey Kent — quit over federal money earmarked for the Vaughan Health Campus of Care (VHCC), which has two key Fantino fundraisers as backers...... Developer Michael DeGasperis is the chair of VHCC and construction insurance man Sam Ciccolini is a director. Both men served as key fundraisers in Fantino’s November 2010 byelection campaign.’
    11 04 10 John
    A recent gathering garnered a larger crowd than Harper did, plus the Liberals are aggressively campaigning in this area. I predict this will return to the Liberals, as the Liberal faithful will come out and vote this time around.
    11 04 10 Teddy Boragina
    Fantino will have no trouble whatsoever getting re-elected based on his personality, his status as the sitting MP, and his party's polling numbers.
    11 04 09 joey joe joe
    Fantino will hang on Conservatives are focused on the riding and he managed to win a seat for the government in a bielection so that is a strong sign.
    11 04 08 MH
    After a narrow by-election victory, Julian Fantino hopes to keep this seat in a general election. Whether he will succeed depends on how the campaign develops. Michael Ignatieff has looked better so far than expected, and Stephen Harper has looked uncomfortable. At the moment it would be highly speculative to call a winner here, although we do know the NDP and Greens are out of the picture. Fantino has the inside track, but can he stay there?
    11 04 07 Tony Ducey
    Especially when you factor in the support of former Liberal candidate, Tony Genco, you know this riding will stay CPC.
    11 04 05 SF
    The local momentum for Fantino since the by-election will be a significant force to contend with, particularly since the previous Liberal Candidate has now jumped on the bandwagon. I predict an easy victory here.
    11 04 03 Brendan B.
    This should be changed to Conservatives. Liberal candidate Tony Genco has endorsed Julian Fantino (http://www.nationalpost.com/todays-paper/Vaughan+Liberal+Genco+throws+support+behind+Fantino/4532851/story.html).
    Fantino has been polling strong against new liberal candidate Mario Ferri, expect him to win by over 6 thousand votes.
    11 04 03 M.Lunn
    Was a safe Liberal riding in the past few elections, but with Maurizio Bevilacqua out, Julian Fantion holding this and the Liberal candidate in the by-election Tony Genco endorsing the Tories, it will be a close fight either way. If the Liberals are able to get an uptick in Ontario they should retake this, but if the Tories maintain their strong lead in Ontario this will probably stay Tory.
    11 03 31 M
    This should be changed to Conservative. The former Liberal opponent of Fantino has thrown his support behind the Conservative. I think this is now a safe seat for the Conservatives.
    11 04 01 binriso
    So the former Liberal candidate says: Ive just decided today all of a sudden that the party that ive been a member for twenty years no longer represents my views!!!!!! Despite the fact I just ran for them a few weeks ago, no big deal they all of a sudden dont represent my views. I dunno what kind of results any MP can achieve in a couple weeks but this whole episode is a joke and is just sour grapes. The Conservatives will probably win here but since turnout will be about twice as high as they byelection, the Liberals may have a chance, since its clearly a two party race.
    11 03 31 Will
    Note that the previous Liberal candidate in the byelection, Tony Genco, has just endorsed Julian Fantino and the Conservatives. Interesting twist.
    11 03 30 Aniconist
    Genco, who lost to Fantino by fewer than a thousand votes in the by-election, today wrote an open letter throwing his support to Fantino, praising his former opponent for getting results and saying that the Liberal party, in which he spent more than twenty years, no longer represents his values or those of Vaughn, and that they are lost in nostalgia for the golden years when they were the natural governing party. Local Libs fired back, suggesting that Genco was bitter at not getting the nod for the nomination; the official agent says that only one set of nomination papers were filed. Clearly the Vaughn Libs are in disarray; Fantino is going back to Ottawa.
    11 03 31 Marco Ricci
    Former Liberal candidate Tony Genco announced today that he is supporting Julian Fantino. Does this indicate a serious split in the Liberal organization in this riding or was this just sour grapes by Mr. Genco because he was not nominated again? Mr. Genco probably won't look very credible since he was opposing Fantino only a few months ago, but it still gets the Liberal campaign off to a rough start here.
    11 03 30
    Genco, the failed last Liberal candidate, has quit the Liberal party and endorsed Fantino. Typical day in politics in Vaughan it seems where everything is about relationship and pride. It is going to take some doing for the Liberals to get over that one.
    11 03 28 R.O.
    Some factors to consider here , first 2 that come to mind are voter fatigue and what advantage does Fantino have being the incumbent . there has to be some voter fatigue here after a long municipal mayoral drama , federal by-election , new federal election and upcoming fall provincial vote . how is that going to affect the current election ? are voters going to be annoyed at opposition for forcing another vote so soon after last one . Julian Fantino has been incumbent for a couple months and allready a very high profile and well respected police officer in Ontario. the liberals personal attacks against him during by-election clearly weren't well received and they should of been smart enough to realise attacking a man that had earned so much respect from the people for his hard work with OPP was the wrong thing to do. i don't see Fantino not holding this one in 2011 especially after hospital funding but it be real race once he retires.
    11 03 27 Marco Ricci
    The Liberals new candidate will be former councillor Mario Ferri.
    Will his greater name recognition and political experience give him a better chance at beating Fantino than Tony Genco had? Or will he run a weaker campaign than Genco and disappoint those Genco supporters who wanted Genco to run again? As Bear and Ape mention, CARP is giving Fantino some criticism, so we'll have to see how Fantino does with voters as well.
    11 03 24 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Just saw an interview with Fantino. He was asked about the budget funding for seniors and CARP's polling which shows their members being dissatisfied with what was allocated. His responses were dismissive and, in our opinion, quite patronizing. Shortly after the interview comments from CARP were aired and it seems that they were very much rubbed the wrong way and they are letting all their members know of his position. Everyone knows that politicians want seinors on their side because they bother to vote. Not good news for the CPC. Fantino will likely get a stern lecture from Harper and if he's re-elected probably won't be put in the same portfolio (if even allowed back into cabinet). This blunder probably won't hurt Fantino's chances at re-election, seeing this is a younger riding. Never the less, if the byelection was any indication, a small army of angry old people could topple him in short order.
    11 03 20 binriso
    While they won the byelection and myself and most others did agree, the CPC barely scraped it out. As such they have an advantage and it is leaning CPC though should be a close race. Interestingly this riding has more than 150 000 people in it (~110 000-120 000 eligible voters) so its borders will likely be changed greatly in the coming years.

    By-election Prediction
    November 29, 2010

    10 11 26 MH
    Now too close to call. Julian Fantino is certainly seeking to distinguish himself as a mud-slinger. Here is his latest on Justin Trudeau and the federal Liberal party: ‘After serving for over 40 years as a police officer,? he told The Globe in an email Friday afternoon [November 26], ?I don't need any lectures on law and order from a novice member of the 'hug-a-thug' Ignatieff party.’ Of course, the ‘tough-on-crime’ approach is probably the best thing Mr. Fantino has going for him in this by-election. If he wins, he will fit in nicely, provided he understands that there is only one view in the Conservative cabinet and party that really counts, namely Mr. Harper's.
    The key to the by-election outcome is probably what happens to the NDP vote.
    10 11 26
    I suspect that the large margins of victory were more so Bevilacqua than ‘Liberal’ votes per se. Vaughn is a suburb Toronto riding near Tory-held seats such as Newmarket-Aurora and Thornhill, so this riding is definitely competitive. Also, Fantino is a very high profile candidate, and despite opponent-manufactured controversies, his name recognition stands. He is running a high profile campaign, compared to the disorganized Genco campaign. Plus, Ignatieff is suffering lower-than-Dion poll ratings, which means Liberal voters will be less motivated to go to the polls. Therefore, I predict a Fantino win by a margin of 5-10%.
    10 11 25 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Going to call it and out gut feeling is a CPC pick up. Despite the controversies there is likely going to be a low voter turn out. Conservative voters will be buoyed by the prospect of taking this riding, along with a star candidate and will turn out in greater numbers. Couple that with the uninspiring leadership by Iggy and we can see a close CPC win. Canadian democracy is in a sad state when votes are determined by degrees of voter apathy rather than actual interest for one party or another.
    10 11 24 RunnertheFirst
    I believe Liberal supporters have put entirely too much weight on Mr. Fantino not showing up for debates. I suspect most Vaughan voters could care less. I don't have any empirical evidence to support that other than a personal opinion debates serve very little purpose in swaying voters.
    What I feel is in Mr. Fantino's favor here is, if elected to represent Vaughan, he will in all likelihood be promoted to Cabinet. Mr Genco would never serve in Cabinet should the Liberal Party ever form a gov't.
    10 11 21 Maple Mike
    Vaughan is the youngest riding in the country. Low voter turn-out will and a strong campaign being run by Green Party candidate Claudia Rodriguez-Larrain will benefit the Green Party.
    10 11 21 J R
    I read the story in the Toronto Star about the protest rally outside of Julian Fantino’s office, that must be an unwelcome distraction that will be a thorn in the side of the Fantino campaign, I was talking about this with my wife and she said that this protest group is probably the reason why Mr. Fantino is running a secretive campaign with very few public events, I have seen Mr. Genco at the GO station three times and he appears to be very engaging despite the temperature in the morning. I think the choice is clear. It will be close but due to the secretive campaign that Fantino is running, voters will vote Liberal.
    10 11 21 R.O.
    Think what were seeing in Vaughan is that its becoming more competitive like other nearby 905 ridings such as Brampton and Mississauga , its became more marginal of a seat and with Bevilacqua gone truly a race. these seats were easy wins for the liberals in 2000 and 2004 elections but becoming more of a challenge each election as conservatives build in roads in GTA. as for the by election it self , Fantino is a high profile candidate for the conservatives and gives them there first real shot of winning Vaughan. Tony Genco is not the worse possible liberal candidate but he is not anywhere near the profile of former mp or mpp as examples. But Fantino's entry in federal politics has not been without some controversy as he was a high profile police officer and made friends but also some enemies over the years. it remains to be seen if the Caledonia group thats trying to claim to be conservatives will have any affect on the race. but its important to keep tory expectations realistic and we must keep in mind this has been a very loyal liberal riding and not actually voted for the conservatives during a general election and there is no real ndp presence in riding to split votes on left. Fantino is running one of the strongest conservative campaigns in the riding in years but the liberals are still here and actively trying to hold riding. if nothing else the final results on nov 29 will likely be much closer a result than normal vaughan elections .
    10 11 21 RobbyD
    The NDP appear to have token signs on all the major streets but I have not seen anything at a residential area. It appears they have just been dropping off postcard sized propaganda because I have asked around at work and no one has seen NDP canvassers. I think the NDP are running a ghost campaign and will not be a factor in this election. If they had mounted a serious campaign they might have been spoiler so I think the Liberals will win this one.
    A stronger NDP campaign would have really helped the Fantino campaign, so I figure the anti-Harper vote will rally around the Genco campaign, Mr. Fantino has not decided to keep a more public profile nor are his signs dominating in the Rutherford area east of Islington.
    10 11 10 binriso
    The CPC might win but it will likely not represent any great trend since they will be pouring tons of resources in here with a star candidate. And it could be just as easily taken back in a general election once voter turnout is actually at higher levels.
    10 11 03 MF
    Bevilacqua was a very entrenched and popular incumbent, but even in 2008 the Conservatives had taken him down quite a notch. With Bevilacqua gone and a star candidate in Fantino, I expect the Conservatives will take this.
    And Tony Genco - who got crushed by Al Palladini in the 1999 provincial candidate - doesn't sound particularly formidable.
    10 10 29 MH
    Assigning Vaughan to the CPC seems premature. The by-election hasn't been called yet, and while Mr. Fantino is a high-profile candidate, it remains to be seen whether he will be able to buck the general anti-government trend that tends to show up in by-elections, one reinforced by current ‘anti-gravy train’ sentiments, which at the federal level can only hurt the Conservatives. Furthermore, Mr. Bevilacqua became mayor of Vaughan in a landslide a few days ago, and he is likely to have long coattails when it comes to the campaign for his old seat. This one is probably too close to call, but a betting man would be wise to put his money on the Liberals.
    10 10 28 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    CPC call for the by-election? Not so fast! We say TCTC. Fantino certainly falls into the category of ‘star candidate’ but he is also controversial. It is close, that's for sure and a once boring riding has become far more interesting.
    Iggy and company can not affort to lose this riding at all...and both the CPC and the Libs know that. So you can bet that Iggy will be pulling out all the stops and dumping plenty of resources here to ensure that the Liberals keep this one. If this does fall to the conservatives, watch Harper engineer a failed no-confidence vote and we'll be at the polls sooner rather than later.
    10 10 24 Canadian Student
    With Mr. Fantino running, I think the Conservatives will be able to pull an upset in this riding. Ignatieff hasn't captured the interest of the nation...and with a local 'star' candidate running, we'll see this 905 riding turn blue just as many of its neighbouring ridings have done recently. Conservative-By-Election Win.
    10 10 24 R.O.
    Julian Fantino has made it official and is the conservative candidate in the by-election. so i'm going to update my prediction as alot has changed here since last post. the arrival of Fantino has been rumoured for a longtime and it could be enough to swing the riding to the conservatives . who have allready made inroads in the GTA and now hold numerous seats in the regions around toronto. The liberals likely candidate is Tony Genco who has some profile in the riding but not necessary at political level. if nothing else its likely to be the closest and most competitive race we have seen in Vaughan federally in sometime. its too early for me to make a solid prediction as we haven't yet got a feel for things in the riding itself or have the signs in the ground as they say.
    10 09 02 R.O.
    Maurizio Bevilacqua has made it official and announced he is leaving Ottawa for a likely municipal run in the city of Vaughan. so it looks like things are about to get interesting in this normally overlooked riding as he had held it for so long it had become a given he'd win it. Without him its doubtful it be as safe for the liberals in future elections or even a by-election. well the riding has a reputation as being a liberal stronghold certain factors should be considered here. the riding is just north of toronto but its entirely suburban and has virtually no high rise apartments , its just about all subdivisions. many of which are high end and among the most expensive in the GTA . The conservatives did win some of these polls in 08 and won 44 polls in the riding but the liberals still won the other 200 polls . the conservatives in 08 also picked up 3 nearby ridings Thornhill , Newmarket - Aurora and Oak Ridges - Markham , so it appears the area is becoming less safe for the liberals. of course the demographics of the riding are somewhat unique as its home to many Italian Canadians who typically vote liberal but did elect an Italian conservative as there mpp from 95-99 . although its unclear who the main candidates be as Richard Lorello who did well here in 08 is also running municipally trying to become a York region councillor. another factor to consider is although Vaughan is a wealthy riding very little money was spent on any of the campaigns last time oddly enough so there is alot of room for campaign spending to increase in the riding.
    10 08 26 seasaw
    Looking at the '08 numbers, the CPC did make some gains. The next election though, will be a lot more interesting in Vaughan. If Maurizio was running, he could've won by just sleepwalking through the campaign, but he won't be running next time. Inspite all the negative press, the CPC numbers are holding steady at 32-35%. Other politicians with a fraction of negative press ( Mulroney, Trudeau, Rae ), saw their numbers often dip below 20% and their approval rating in low teens. This has not happened with the Harper Tories. Iggy's been leader almost as long as Dion, and without receiving any beatings, his numbers are actually a little worse! The CPC has a realistic chance of winning here, by recruiting a high profile candidate.
    09 09 15 MF
    Re: the Italian Canadian vote, look how poorly the Liberals have been doing in the Caledon part of Dufferin-Caledon, which is also heavily Italian, so I think there is more at work than just ?Italian-ness? in Vaughan. My feeling is Maurizio Bevilacqua, who is quite high-profile and a center-right Liberal, enjoys a lot of personal popularity that allows him to win by healthier margins than demographics alone would.
    09 09 14 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    A point for thought/debate rather than a suppliment to our earlier post: If subsequent generations within the Italian community no longer hold the I-vote-for-who-my-father-voted-for tradition, wouldn't the other ?Italian traditions? also have been diluted and the younger generations disperse their votes amongst all parties (in other words join the rest of the Canadian population in their voting patterns)?
    09 09 11 Stevo
    I agree with A.S. For a guy who usually popular votes of 65-75%, Bevilacqua's 49% showing in 2008 was astonishingly low. There really is no reason for Italians to be so uniformly Liberals. They are, by and large, a very conservative community, and when family tradition of the 'I-vote-for-who-my-father-votes-for? type no longer plays a role in their voting behaviour (and lets face it, that's the ONLY reason the Liberals dominate in the Italian community), there's really only one party they would gravitate to, and it sure isn't the NDP!
    09 09 10 A.S.
    Liberals ?sitting home? or not, by Vaughan standards the '08 Bevilacqua tally (49% viz. CPC's 34%) *was* alarming; though whether it's a harbinger of doom is open to question--all in all, the local Italo-Grit machine probably took the seat for autopilot granted, and they won anyway so atsamatta. Vaughan will fall only if Iggy out-bombs Dion, and/or if the Tories have some kind of superduper 905 megastrategy in place.
    09 08 23 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Over 9000 fewer votes for the Liberals in 2008. About 3000 went to the CPC and about 6000 sat home. Maurizio still got 50% of the vote (okay 49.2% to be exact). Not going anywhere but Liberal.

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